A vision for the future of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani

it’s a huge honor to welcome to this

virtual Ted stage his Excellency dr.

Ashraf Ghani well thank you Lama alaikum

Estela it’s thank you for coming and

spending this this time with us you are

facing issues that almost no one else on

the planet is is having to face help us

understand your country dr. Ghani the

new york times in a recent article

described afghanistan in this language

the impoverished Central Asian country

once unfamiliar to many Americans that

is now symbolizes endless conflict

foreign entanglements and an incubator

of terrorist plots how would you

describe Afghanistan this malaria movie

first of all thank you for having me

thank you for your great interest in

evanston and for your friendship and my

deepest sympathies to New Yorkers my

wife and I spent five years our children

were born there so it’s our deepest

sympathies and empathise then your

attempts catches one side of the story

let me tell you the other side since

I’ve become president I’ve been 89 times

to the provinces before corona I average

seeing 4,000 of my fellow citizens a

month what do I hear from all our fans

from all walks of life men and women

girls and boys a quest for normalcy we

are striving to be normal it’s not we

who are abnormal it’s the circumstances

in which we have been

cut we are hit by turbulence left right

and center and we are attempting to

carve away forward to overcome the types

of turbulence that an interaction with

each other provide an environment of

continuous uncertainty so our goal is to

overcome this and I think with the will

of the people

we’ll be able to may I tell you some

stories please hey nineteen years ago

when I returned after 24 years I

couldn’t find five people to write we

had lost our language all our languages

today in poetry and prose novels

twopenny novels - literary criticism the

country is vibrant it’s one of the

greatest conversations that is happening

in people are engaging each other just

two epic poets one called our zoo in

Derry and one called a wall in Pashto it

produced literature that I think would

be read for the next 400 years women we

endured a gender segregation like none

but today the women of Afghanistan speak

for themselves they are ministers their

ambassadors there in all walks of life

but particularly what moves me is young

girls I before Colin I used to see them

every day and you know what they would

say half of them want to be President of

Afghanistan that’s a different

Afghanistan and this quest for normalcy

is what I’m determined to put into

practice and create the conditions the

other example we were hit by Corona

and February for the first two days

there was a panic in the market prices

in Kabul double within 24 hours we

brought it down it’s a functioning

market that can reach almost anywhere in

in 2002 every province every centre of a

province was a satellite of a

neighboring country there is a lot

that’s happening positively it’s what is

characteristic of our people is the will

to overcome the past and to move forward

and I hope poverty is real inequality is

real but we also have a very determined

population that embraces the notion of

the Republic and the notion of

citizenship

you know us we’re egalitarian we don’t

bend to each other we all need to

persuade each other well I spent several

years in Afghanistan as a as a child and

and certainly experienced that

determination of there’s a depth of real

depth to so many Afghans it was really

striking but this war dr. Ghani it’s

been 19 years I guess since this war

began

it was waged as a response to a

terrorist incident in which something

like 3,000 people died the wars cost two

trillion dollars perhaps a hundred

thousand lives mostly Afghan has it been

worth it the first issue is that the

cost of the war is vastly exaggerated

professor Anthony Cordesman is written

an excellent paper called the true cost

of war the f1 war isn’t become an

omnibus under which everything from Navy

to the Air Force together is costed but

the cost in life and treasure has been

very real to the United States

fortunately since I’ve become president

the cost in life is under 100 well it

used to be over 2,300

in the cost in treasure again has come

down when let’s leave the judgment of

whether it was worth it to the

historians because I don’t want to

discuss the past but in the cost I mean

there’s been 100 American lives lost but

but many many Afghan lives continue I

was bringing it to the American

perspective no we we are the ones were

dying and because of that I’m determined

to move forward with peace and the stars

are finally being aligned the war will

go on unless we find a political

solution keeping the war going on does

not require more than sixty million

dollars a year but the real courage the

real imagination is to bring peace in at

this moment we should be really focused

on finding a political solution to end

this specter that is haunting our lives

so the the us and the Taliban reached

this provisional agreement I guess in in

February to reduce violence was that a

productive agreement and do you see it

leading to this agreement between the

government of Afghanistan people of

Afghanistan and the Taliban in a way

that can bring actual peace well first

of all let me again say thank you to the

u.s. for the sacrifice in blood and

treasure veterans

if served in Afghanistan they’ve lived

with memories of this country and it

really I moved to tears when they tell

me they’ve left a piece of their hearts

enough ones into the gold star families

who’ve lost their loved ones at this

moment us an interest Afghanistan and

perspectives are aligned because they’re

in state the ultimate goal is a

sovereign Democratic United Afghanistan

at peace with itself in the world within

that we need to

Taliban are a fact of life Afghanistan

you cannot do away with it by force

now no nor can they do away with the

security forces and the will of the

people of a monster so we need to find

the political solution in this

environment I think we’re moving forward

to creating the conditions for a direct

dialogue between the Taliban and us in

this phase will hopefully move us to

enough unknown enough one let peace

process where we need to make peace the

reduction of violence is head to aspect

in terms of massive conflict that has

been reduced but the cost in life’s is

still very high on average 30 to 35

casualties a day from our security

forces up to 270 fatalities and up to 70

casualty so it’s imperative particularly

in the environment of Corona that we go

for a humanitarian ceasefire in start

and travel on the condition that Taliban

prisoners be released and our prisoners

be released is moving forward I’m

hopeful that soon will begin direct

talks what does it take if the remaining

US forces are withdrawn before you have

a peace agreement in place our security

forces are doing 83% and prior to the

ceasefire in the reduction of violence

to operations so the number of your

forces is now down to about eight

thousand six hundred the question is not

what will happen to us the US should

consider what will happen to it in terms

of the threat of ongoing threat of

terrorism we do not comment on the

sovereign decisions of the United Stated

as president from two years ago that any

schedule of withdrawal that he chooses

of course is acceptable to us

support structures are important a

gradual systematic condition based

approach would be in both our interest

but should that happen

of course the responsibility for for

defending of understand and for securing

it lies on our shoulders and I’m

delighted that every single member of

our security forces is a volunteer there

is no one conscripted there is no one

force and our Special Forces or second

to none in the region and our Air Force

is been tripled we’ll be able to

maintain ourselves but it could change

it could adversely affect the chances of

peace and I hope that we will be able to

move forward so it is a systematic

process rather than a sudden process

many Afghans I believe including you I

reject the Taliban strident

interpretation of Islam I mean when

values are that different is there any

real prospect of long-term stable peace

well again I hope you remember President

Lincoln’s statement a woman was

criticizing him for making peace and he

said he said you’re making peace with

your enemies he said isn’t the best way

of turning the enemies into friends so

first is the the story of ceasefire of

2018 tens of thousands of Taliban mixed

with the rest of that ones you know

there wasn’t a single incident of

lynching or spitting or insulting of the

Tulpa our society is a consensus on

making peace our values need to be

reframed from war to peace and the

environment of war values become more

pronounced towards violence you’ve seen

ever

the veterans their problems no matter

what type of country they come from the

POE stress disorder etcetera common

phenomena so here piece must be mapped

properly I’ve spent a lifetime studying

peace processes over a hundred

agreements in preparation there are good

peace processes and they’re bad ones

process matters

the key is what’s the goal and how to

reach agreement in then to give the

implementation sufficient time the key

to future values is removal of arms from

dictation once we interact I think we’ll

be able to renew our bonds because in

the past also we’ve had periods of

radical versus tolerant our tradition

you know is Mawlana froom famously known

as Rumi and he has a verse that I’d like

to cite he says with will fire becomes

sweet water and without will even water

becomes fire this is not easy but it is

necessary in the last issue who’s the

winner of the war there is no winner but

who’s the winner of the piece the people

of Afghanistan and the people of the

region we should all become acquired the

humility to say that we will put our

people first and really arrive it weighs

and you know us with several thousand

years of ways of mediation arbitration

coming together there’s a large

repertoire for peacemaking and I hope we

can mobilize it and use it yes there is

this extraordinary tradition in

Afghanistan of face-to-face meetings

Jirga meetings right when I had the

great

honor to stay in your home eight years

ago when I was in Kabul the centerpiece

of your home was this beautiful area of

a rectangle area with it with a lovely

carpet and and back support so that

twenty people could kind of sit in a

circle well it was really a rectangle

but facing each other and I witnessed

you having these face-to-face

conversations with people some of whom

disagreed with you some of whom

supported you but the power of that was

extraordinary to witness do you can you

see a time in in the next 3 3 to 5 years

say where you you will sit in a circle

face-to-face with Taliban perhaps and

try to bridge and get to a point of

understanding is that imaginable

absolutely not within three years

I hope within three months we are

determined to move forward with this

opportunity this is a window it’s a

narrow window it can shut but we want to

open it and what you’ve seen what you

sign my house I have done in

presidential grounds with thousands of

people prior to Corona I saw about 4,000

people of Kabul to discuss the city of

Kabul in the province of Kabul for six

weeks 600 to 800 people were come we are

inegalitarian people we cannot be

dictated we can only be persuaded and

persuasion means that all policies have

to be done from ground up and then top

down that’s the combination things that

are borrowed uncritically will only

produce counter-reaction

we have a saying you can persuade enough

one to go to hell but you cannot compel

him to go to heaven he has to be

persuaded

it’s a the final series of the TV show

homeland was located in Afghanistan and

featured tense negotiations evolving the

u.s. the Afghan government the Taliban

Pakistan

did you see that series and did it bear

any relation to reality

unfortunately no not I’m a compulsive

reader but I don’t watch my 16 hour days

but let me take the question peace

making is no longer just an amateur art

form it really has become a discipline

two of my friends that have been working

very closely

William Mori and Jonathan Powell I’ve

done an enormous amount to turn this

into discipline the German Birkhoff

foundation there are others in

particularly a recent book on

Kissinger’s diplomacy distinctively

William Murray has come with two concept

one is called Batna or the best

alternative to negotiation we need to

understand that if you reduce the option

of war peacemaking will move forward the

second is called the zone of possible

agreement we have to ever approach to

bridging in there is work at the table

there’s work off the table the work of

the table means bringing the region the

international community other key

stakeholders my own take from this is we

need if we define the objectives instead

of moving blind forward to have what is

called the in state or the objective

then we can avoid a lot of those

tensions in others because the classic

now the biography of late Holbrooke is

there was the act of improvisation this

is not yes it is discipline we need to

have a lot more discipline so the

instruments come together and the voices

could come around the keys of one’s have

had a very strong sense of nationalism

an identity it’s time to bridge our gaps

in come together in in create a common

future that is now TDC but it is

absolutely imperative speaking of which

you’ve fought to disputed elections with

Abdullah Abdullah he is now leading the

High Council of national reconciliation

I guess playing a key role in the

negotiation with the Taliban have you

been able to build a productive

relationship with him

absolutely we were singing in Pashto

says Houlihan colada and below says your

tongue is either a fortress or a curse

maulana puts it better

o tongue you’re an endless treasure o

tank you’re also in endless disease

I’ve never responded negatively to dr.

Abdullah either in the course of 2014 or

2019 campaign or during the years we

have resumed a very productive

relationship and we are meeting with

mutual respect and courtesy it’s also

the question that now is not the

agreement of the government of national

unity dr. Abdullah is no rule directly

in running the government I’m blessed

with colleagues vice president Sally

vice president mr. doesn’t that the role

is of course his colleagues will be

participating in the cabinet but the

this is within the peace is an area of

agreement within us because the two key

parameters are one we should secure the

participation of the Taliban within the

Republic second elections must be the

ultimate determinant of the future of

leadership in evanston dr. Abdullah and

I share common ground and we are working

well together can you help us understand

the key issues at stake in your

relationship with Pakistan specifically

do you feel that they’re doing enough to

put pressure on the Taliban on the

Taliban to properly

engage in the peace process well until

the visit of the chief of staff of

Pakistan’s army general Berto at

Afghanistan they were uncertainties and

the past I don’t want to discuss

everybody knows and mutual suspicion etc

etc now we think we are converging on a

shared vision in that the first

component of that is that a stable

democratic Afghanistan and hopefully

prosperous is necessary for Pakistan to

be stable and democratic and peaceful

second that ways of the past to think

that Afghanistan is a part of strategic

depth or a satellite of Pakistan or not

possible not feasible so here

convergence on a sovereign Democratic

constitutional Iran Afghanistan is

important we on our part or clear we’ve

I’ve talked articulated a new doctrine

of our foreign policy I call it multi

alignment maximum number of friends

minimum number of opponents we don’t

want to give part of the disputes of our

other partners we will not permit our

soil to be used against others but

you’ll also expect that others will not

use their soil against us I think that

Pakistan’s internal reflections make

this a possibility the Taliban have

frankly been a cost to Pakistan without

considerable benefits in at this moment

the other issue is that regions

developed not countries so India is

going to be having a very important

issue for our economic well-being in we

for linking Pakistan to Central Asia in

caucuses the areas of convergence or

becoming much greater than divergence in

words we’ve made a lot of progress

we hope there

this will translate into a very positive

role that positive role is what we asked

for because competition among nations

and particularly post corona environment

and the environmental crisis that South

Asia faces is going to be a lose-lose

while Pakistan is made calculation if

there were peace in Afghanistan and our

joint connectivity regional connectivity

agenda we’ll realize there could be up

to 2% additional rate of growth and

buckston we’re going to have questions

from the audience in one minute but I

just you mentioned corona virus there

again talk about what you’re wrestling

with there because in a country with

with a lot of poverty that the decision

on how much you shut down you know

that’s a harder call to make than then

in a richer country how do you how do

you come up with the right strategy to

fight this what have you been doing and

and what do you need from the rest of

the world to help that fight be better

well the first is we were one of the

first countries to become fully aware

and this is really thanks Terry Marathi

friends in January 6th Annan give a

share the briefing I was giving a

keynote address in Abu Dhabi

he was the first individual to use the

term the corona economy and hit full

analysis developed in terms of scenarios

their future orientation was so when the

first cases in Iran happened we prepared

mr. Anderson we were having from

February 24 the first cases to March

21st now rolls up to 10,000 people a day

coming from Iran there was a panic among

of ones in Iran so they rushed we moved

in to analyze the phases so there five

phases awareness diffusion adversity

relief recovery the exact

timing of course was unknown but we

responded with lockdowns which brought

foot structural our chip in situational

but compared to our all others you know

figures given that we don’t have testing

and tracing unfortunately the united

nation agencies have not been able to

deliver on the promises even though the

money came from the World Bank they have

had constraints total deaths have been

four hundred ninety one until now in the

faces of diffusion were slow we had very

little till the third week of May the

last week of May adversity started so

now we are in a phase the other part of

it is we started distributing bread for

the first time in our history to all our

cities now we are doing a major program

shortly of distributing a package of

basic food to almost 90% of that one

population and several phases

affordability is an issue for us but in

terms of what we ask it’s knowledge it’s

sharing of experience and from the

philanthropic community its sponsor

enough one family and work with us to

knowledge networks because now we have

the capability to the digital system I’m

consulting more intensely because of the

telecom capability all aggressive wants

them if we can work together because

what makes us special for a study one we

are at the gateway to Central Asia into

India a tooth to the subcontinent

Pakistan in India so in terms of

diffusion it’s not a nation it’s a

entire continent that is it issue second

the number above sixty is only three per

and of the population so we have one of

the youngest populations how profile the

works and then the urban is about thirty

percent rule a seventy percent this

profile

I think would allow for the type of

working true solutions our main

challenge is going to be winter if

Corona continues to the winter then

given our small houses and our

traditions of thousand years of hitting

food together breaking bread together

will become an obstacle so working

through in here particularly women and

women let’s households if particular

needs and working with us through

globally to be able to mobilize for this

our society is mobilized with enormous

generosity people have really shared

half of the grin in the private sector

is been marvelous in terms of both

contributing to the market stability but

also with the deep sense of charity if

it could be joined with Regional

Planning and global coordination

particularly with the vaccine comes that

we are not forgotten because we will not

be able to pay early I’m hearing you say

that could be a national strategy in

response to covered nineteen I think

there might be a few countries who might

want to borrow you for a few months dr.

Ghani

we’re gonna go to okay we’re gonna go to

questions from the community let’s get

the first one up there okay so I don’t

know if you can see that dr. garner the

peace process is a triangulation between

your government Taliban in the US but

others have political economic political

interest in Afghanistan China for

instance what is the role of China in

Afghanistan today thank you

the stake that sir is this the coalition

for war was limited I hope too

but the broadest coalition for peace

everybody can be a winner in peace China

is a very significant paper we have a

short a small important but very

significant China’s market is essential

for us thanks to is Pakistan opening to

us which I’d like to thank myself in

particular we now reach ina a week it

used to take us three months in terms of

investment of when a son wants to be a

location for investment China should it

wish in terms of the peace process we

would like that discussions of the peace

not to take place in one country but to

move so we can have the maximum number

of stakeholders the most significant

thing is what I put to President Xi

during the Shanghai conference in II

immediately in dorset we want to be a

platform for regional and global

cooperation not a site for rivalries

that is in the interest in China lastly

is a major stakeholder in containing

terrorism because that threat to that is

felt real and it’s an area of

cooperation we’ll take one more

community question it’s an honor

for you today personally thank you for

the for grounding the peacemaking is a

discipline can you share more about how

every human being connectively practice

the discipline of peacemaking in our

daily lives and in our nation’s

absolutely because the first thing is

mutual respect you know two types of

conversations have been differentiated

by professor Argyris one of the key

practitioners of this one is called type

1 listening where one just repeats one’s

position and doesn’t hear the other side

type two is to really have a

conversation where we listen what is in

shortage and our daily interactions is

capacity to listen we talk too much we

listen too little and this is crucial

second is our basic humanity when all

forms of differences are socially and

culturally constructed there’s no such

thing as ethnic or linguistic or racial

ground Franz boas the founder of

cultural anthropology demonstrated to

measuring heads and noses that migrants

Italians and Irish against whom there

was enormous prejudice were not

different so it’s important second

hierarchy in participation need to be

balanced a lot of things need to be done

by community I’m delighted for instance

that as an architect of a program called

national solidarity now this isn’t your

turn I have one villages now have 50 50

50 percent of our village councils are

led by women 50 by men gender is an

extremely important area because women

bring a new perspective an enriched

perspective and we are complementary to

each other it’s finding common ground

that allows us to live because all a lot

of times particularly within ideological

communities with their religious or

secular small differences or exaggerated

to such an extent that makes hearing

each other impossible now I hear the

word tribes mutually exclusive through

their digital systems applied to the

United States it’s such a tragedy we

need to move forward and come together

dr. Gandhi as a boy I remember just the

beauty of Afghanistan I remember walking

by the incredible blue lakes of Bundy

Aamir skipping stones because there’s

all this flat slate there so many deep

memories there parts of Afghanistan that

tourists have no idea about is there any

prospect that in the next years that

they will have a chance to visit again

in peace and confidence that they will

just have a beautiful experience in a

beautiful land

I much hope so during my six years I’ve

had a two-hour break and that wasn’t bad

damage and you know you remember the

Warm Springs to because it’s a

combination of intensely cold water plus

these worm Springs that makes it a

delight we are expanding in one of my

quiz is for carbon trading to reforest

Afghanistan I think we could go probably

to up to 500 million trees that would be

an enormous change in the lives of

people and those people who were part of

the initiative of one trillion trees the

firms and others we invited but also in

Kabul and Parwan in Herat and the Condor

and others we have done in intense work

to renew our cultural heritage you

remember Parma the valley about 20

kilometres west of Kabul its villas its

structures from 1880 to 1930 were ground

to dust

it’s Gardens have been destroyed we’ve

restored everything and now it’s a

national park we are expanding this and

my goal is to create one National Park

in every single of the districts of the

country the beauty is truly moving I’ve

been to all call every single province

of Afghanistan from five times to 20

times and I’m moved by the sheer beauty

of what’s there and we hope to share it

we could have up to two million tourists

a year if we had peace and can you

comment briefly on what the business

opportunities are in Afghanistan what

kinds of investment or entrepreneurial

activity would you welcome well first is

the power sector Pakistan needs probably

around fifty thousand megawatts of of

power this is word bank calculations for

its hundredth anniversary to move from a

lower middle income to an upper middle

calm country in Central Asia is the key

so power we’ve created all the

opportunities for the private sector to

be in transmission in production and

distribution we also have this amazing

potential 220,000 megawatts of solar

80,000 megawatts of wind in 23,000

megawatts of hydro coal we are not

touching at this moment so power sector

second or pipelines natural gas going to

India is crucial not only just Pakistan

but beyond to to India getting here is

insurance and guarantees working on

insurance and guarantees is the crucial

enabling mechanism the second area is

mining we have the

just item deposits one of the largest

copper deposits in gold will be a player

in talk we can be one of the 10 players

we have over a billion tons of marble of

40 colors we could just to China we

could have an export of 1 billion

dollars a year precious stones again gas

is beginning to look very good oil could

be sufficient so small in medium type

companies that take risks and look for

high rewards agriculture is beginning we

have just surpassed 1 billion dollars in

export I was able to double our exports

we have created now the infrastructure

and in the systems in equally the

digital economy is the future so digital

services we are focusing completely on

on the new economy to be able to to

create jobs and as I said the other is

environment water we are harnessing 6

billion cubic meters of water just in

our western borders but all together we

have to harness about 22 billion cubic

meters environmental crisis in South

Asia in Central Asia and West Asia is

not a warning it’s a forthcoming reality

war here in water management is going to

be an extremely big issue of

coordination and the other is the

railways transport will be crucial

because we missed the 19th century

transport revolution we privatize the

fiber optics we’re looking every area

where regional national and global firms

will come we are interested in the last

point is that don’t look at that one

market look at it as a platform for

regional cooperation because we have one

of the lowest tariffs

it’s for our exports from to China to

India to Europe and others work the

kiyose value chains and supply chains

and anything that can be done there and

you have one of the youngest populations

on earth with willingness to work

extremely hard for good money an inner

entrepreneurial population to boot that

you understand dr. Ghani Alice we are we

are out of time I I thank you for this

this vision it’s an exciting vision of

what Afghanistan could be and and I’ve

just whenever I hear you I’m struck both

by your eloquence and and your courage

you know you’ve you’ve lived all these

years under threat of assassination I

guess and I I honestly don’t know how

you find the strength to do what you do

but that but thank you for what you’re

doing and I think everyone in this

community wishes you and Afghanistan a

beautiful future enough of this pain and

this this war in this fighting enough

now we wish you better times ahead sir

well thank you for me it’s not courage

because I don’t know I don’t know how to

define it you know when they send

rockets I open my chest and I said I’m

not wearing a bulletproof that was my

inauguration and it becomes a national

gesture what I don’t give to is fear I

have no fear I have lived a life I’ve

lived multiple lives in this life is

dedicated to service what inspires me is

the decency the incredible generosity

the sense of appreciation when a young

girl looks at you and says you’ve made

it possible for me to do big dream to be

President how what price

you put on that when a widow embraces

you and says I’ve lost three sons but

I’ll give the other two we are a hopeful

Society what makes me wake up with hope

no matter what the previous day has been

is that I know I have a master my

masters are the people of Evanston for

they are the ones to be appreciated I am

just simple a human being with all the

hopes and challenges but they want a

translator a translator that can hear

them that can assemble it back and in

our just end with a story I went to or

his gun one of our poorest provinces in

2003 - - and I listened to the people

the usual way that you’ve described

sitting all of us and then I said how do

you want it done and they started

laughing and I was taken aback because

I’ve gone after 24 years nice and that

vibe made him a cultural mistake they

said you don’t know who you are and I

was puzzled I said Who am I

they said we need to during the collapse

of the Taliban and coming of the

Americans we used to listen to you every

day on the BBC and say next day and the

MAS get together and say a chef when he

said this go get it done you’ve come

back it’s trust this trust is really

fundamental it’s inspiring and thank you

for your support

we count on it as always and I’m looking

very much forward to welcome you back

Afghanistan has been home to you and

again we would like it to be home to you

and to millions of our friends thank you

so much dr. Ghani for those words and

for this conversation together thank you

thank you good night