How conspiracy beliefs reveal intuitive reflective impulses

Transcriber: lisa thompson
Reviewer: David DeRuwe

Is there anything that you believe in
that is implausible?

A Bigfoot, for example?
The afterlife? UFOs?

What about a conspiracy theory?

What all of these
three examples have in common,

aside from the fact that they
are very hard to prove or disprove,

is that they require us
to make a judgment,

a judgment on how likely we think
that our belief is true.

And in doing so, we can either
use our intuition or analytical thinking.

Recent research has shown

that people who believe
in a conspiracy theory

tend to use analytical thinking less
and intuition more.

A conspiracy theory is the belief
that there is a hostile coalition,

a group of people who, in secrecy,
pursue a harmful or deceptive goal.

Conspiracy theories are not wrong, per se,

but they are very often fueled
by misinformation,

and they are hard to disprove.

And remember, some formerly labeled
conspiracy beliefs,

like the Watergate scandal, for example,
turned out to be true later.

Circulating conspiracy beliefs

is a phenomenon that probably
is as old as our humanity itself.

However, the uniqueness of our present age

is that any view, idea, or opinion
can be easily disseminated.

So that is why many of us
may have the feeling

that conspiracy theories
are all around us.

And it is actually not surprising when
you may feel like this even more so lately

because conspiracy theories
often gain momentum in times of crisis.

But why?

When living conditions
have suddenly changed, are threatening,

and when the future seems uncertain,

people tend to experience feelings
like anxiety, stress, frustration,

powerlessness -
all these negative feelings.

And believing in a conspiracy theory

may be one way to minimize
these negative feelings

by assigning meaning to uncertainty.

For instance, take the following example:

It cannot be that the COVID-19 pandemic
happened accidentally.

There must be someone behind it
who did this on purpose

to cause harm to other people,
so it must be man-made.

And the more and more
one feels to be lacking control,

the conspiracy belief becomes
an even more attractive explanation

for otherwise inexplicable events
that have affected us severely.

So interestingly,

believing in a conspiracy theory
does serve a purpose,

namely to establish a sense of control.

Together with my colleagues

from the Universities of Basel,
Oxford, and Lübeck,

we recently discovered
some cognitive characteristics

of people who believe
in a conspiracy theory.

For example, we discovered that they
tend to jump to a conclusion.

And what is really interesting

is that although they find them
rather implausible,

they still choose to believe
in the conclusion they hastily arrived at.

Additionally, we also found out
that once a judgment has been made,

people who believe in a conspiracy theory

tend to not integrate
any further contradictory information

into their judgments anymore.

Importantly - and this is
really remarkable -

not only people who believe
in a conspiracy theory

show these cognitive characteristics;

we all do from time to time.

And that is why, by studying
this unique type of personal judgment,

namely to believe
in a conspiracy theory,

we, as researchers, are learning
about the cognitive underpinnings

of human judgment and decision-making,

and it has taught us
that when making a judgment,

our mind goes through three main cognitive
processes of information gathering:

First, we have to assess
the credibility or plausibility

or accuracy of given information.

Second, we have to decide how much
information we should or want to consult.

And third,

we possibly deal also with information
that contradicts our opinion.

And the way we deal with each
of these three cognitive processes

can tell us whether we are leading
with our intuition or analytical mind.

A simple example is, when choosing
an ice cream flavor,

we may be more led with our intuition,
consulting less information,

not needing to assess the credibility
of different ice cream flavor signs

and do not seek out contradictory views
on favorite ice cream flavors.

But in contrast, when
investing in a big ticket item -

a car, for example, or a flat -

one may wish to gather more information
before purchasing it,

even find negative reviews

and choose specific,
credible sources that we can trust

before making a decision.

The power of intuition is huge,

and I’m pretty sure that all of you
know that positive feeling

when having decided
based on a gut reaction

and the ultimate decision
turned out to be completely right.

Or vice versa -

the negative feeling when you have decided
based on analytical thinking

but the ultimate decision
does not feel right.

We all strive to make
the right decision regardless.

And in general,

all of us use a balance between both:
intuition and analytical thinking.

And all of us need both minds
in order to make judgments and decisions.

We all need both minds

in order to be able to act
and interact with others.

So sometimes we may lean to one side

and make a judgment that requires a leap
to draw a conclusion,

and sometimes we swing
to the other side and overanalyze.

So finally,

believing in a conspiracy theory
in and of itself is not a bad thing.

In the end,

it is just the product of a typical
human process, cognitive process.

It’s what we do with them,
that can be inhuman.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)