Navigating the COVID Information Storm
[Music]
doctors and researchers
tell us that gatherings of more than 10
people is potentially
dangerous and can promote the spread of
covid19
those who understand the implications of
this disease are taking
data and turning into into information
so that the general public can make
decisions about their health
because of covet i am presenting this
talk virtually
i should be standing in a room full of
people right now
when it comes to the health of their
families women are the main decision
makers
we decide when it’s time to seek medical
treatment
when it’s time to get that vaccine and
how we’re
how we will manage the day-to-day for
our families
information is an essential tool for
decision making
and we are bombarded with information
every day that can
cause potential missteps that have
consequences
not only for our own lives but for the
lives of many others
the challenge we’re facing today is what
information
we should pay attention to that shapes
our decisions
what knowledge will help us make the
best decisions for ourselves
our families and our communities to stay
healthy during this pandemic
there is a constant storm of information
and it’s overwhelming
like all of you i’m exhausted by the
sheer amount of information
that is available i often wonder
how concerned should i be right now and
people will ask me how bad are things
really
well i work in public health i’m an
information and a statistician
and even i wonder what information i
should pay attention to
what i should disregard you know these
questions
inspired this talk thankfully we do have
ways of answering this these questions
while the pandemic is a moving target
there are ways we can
process information and respond to it
i reached out to an amazing group of
women epidemiologists
researchers and health educators to help
me to put together
a practical list of tips for managing
this covet information storm
today i’m going to present four of those
tips to you
the first is to look beyond the headline
think about how many coveted related
headlines you see
every day in the news here are just a
couple of the sensational examples that
i’ve seen during this pandemic
coronavirus is a human crisis beyond
most of our scariest dreams we will
actually need to restart society
and it actually may be the end of the
world as we know it
wow right so what do you do
when you see a sensational headline like
this
do you immediately repost it to your
social media
or do you read it and evaluate the
information
to see if the arguments make any sense
here’s an another fun example of a viral
headline that i’ve seen
how to quit your job move to paradise
and get paid to change the world now
that would be
great wouldn’t it but i bet most of us
are hesitant to repost that to our
social media right away
when you see a headline look beyond for
the substance
or do what i generally do and just move
on
second use multiple data points to make
decisions
we are bombarded minute by minute with
very specific numbers
like the number of coveted cases we seem
to
hang on that particular number and
many decisions are made because of it
just recently the covet case count in
fulton county which
includes the city of atlanta and is
actually where we’re standing right now
was around 30 000.
so but what does that number mean to us
without any additional context
you know it just sounds kind of scary
right
epidemiologists those who study disease
and track it tell us that we should look
at several
several things together not only the
number of cases
but also the case positivity rate and
the number of deaths
so now what if i told you that the
current case positivity rate in fulton
county
was around 4 and it was dropping
the point is that we need to take a step
back
take a deep breath and look at the
bigger picture
one statistic does not make a pandemic
you know a colleague once told me that
the easiest way to be wrong
when looking at a statistic is to focus
on a small and finite time frame
so the third tip is to question numbers
that represent a single point in time
instead look for a seven day rolling
average
and that’s just the average of the data
over seven days
the seven day rolling average adjusts
for when data is not reported or even
when it is
under-reported and why is this important
healthcare facilities and health
departments often do not
publish data on the weekends so you may
see
an a drop in the number of cases in the
drop in the number of deaths on a sunday
or a monday and then all of a sudden
you’ll see a spike on tuesday
what the seven seven-day rolling average
does is it takes that data and evens it
out
and provides us with a more
understandable trend
it brings that more realistic view of
those numbers
the final tip is that correlation does
not
imply causation now i know this one
sounds a little less practical
but hang in there with me because this
one’s really important
correlation is a mutual relationship
or connection between two or more things
and causation goes a step further
causation means that a change in one
thing
causes a change in another we often call
causation cause and effect
the point i want you to get is that just
because
two things are correlated does not mean
that one thing
causes another let me give you a simple
example
did you know that ice cream was
connected to shark attacks
both shark attacks and ice cream cells
increase like clockwork
every single year but
does a rise in ice cream sales cause an
increase in the number of shark attacks
well of course the answer is no
warm weather is actually one of the
culprits
more people are at the beach during warm
weather and hey that’s just where the
sharks happen to be hanging out
and ice cream is just a fantastic snack
on a hot sunny day
in the face of uncertainty data
turned into actionable information can
provide
comfort and help us make good decisions
today i’ve given you four practical tips
for managing information
and decision making that can be really
helpful during this pandemic
and can also be helpful in many other
situations
look beyond the headline use multiple
data points to make decisions
question numbers that represent a single
point in time
and correlation does not imply causation
in the midst of taking care of ourselves
and our families i want to remind you
that you should focus on yourself
women today need to be okay with taking
care of ourselves
take five minutes every day and just
exhale
enjoy that double scoop of cookies and
cream ice cream
without worrying that you just caused a
shark attack
we need to make sure that our cup is
full before we pour into others
remember we are all in this together
thank you
[Music]
you