Navigating the COVID Information Storm

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doctors and researchers

tell us that gatherings of more than 10

people is potentially

dangerous and can promote the spread of

covid19

those who understand the implications of

this disease are taking

data and turning into into information

so that the general public can make

decisions about their health

because of covet i am presenting this

talk virtually

i should be standing in a room full of

people right now

when it comes to the health of their

families women are the main decision

makers

we decide when it’s time to seek medical

treatment

when it’s time to get that vaccine and

how we’re

how we will manage the day-to-day for

our families

information is an essential tool for

decision making

and we are bombarded with information

every day that can

cause potential missteps that have

consequences

not only for our own lives but for the

lives of many others

the challenge we’re facing today is what

information

we should pay attention to that shapes

our decisions

what knowledge will help us make the

best decisions for ourselves

our families and our communities to stay

healthy during this pandemic

there is a constant storm of information

and it’s overwhelming

like all of you i’m exhausted by the

sheer amount of information

that is available i often wonder

how concerned should i be right now and

people will ask me how bad are things

really

well i work in public health i’m an

information and a statistician

and even i wonder what information i

should pay attention to

what i should disregard you know these

questions

inspired this talk thankfully we do have

ways of answering this these questions

while the pandemic is a moving target

there are ways we can

process information and respond to it

i reached out to an amazing group of

women epidemiologists

researchers and health educators to help

me to put together

a practical list of tips for managing

this covet information storm

today i’m going to present four of those

tips to you

the first is to look beyond the headline

think about how many coveted related

headlines you see

every day in the news here are just a

couple of the sensational examples that

i’ve seen during this pandemic

coronavirus is a human crisis beyond

most of our scariest dreams we will

actually need to restart society

and it actually may be the end of the

world as we know it

wow right so what do you do

when you see a sensational headline like

this

do you immediately repost it to your

social media

or do you read it and evaluate the

information

to see if the arguments make any sense

here’s an another fun example of a viral

headline that i’ve seen

how to quit your job move to paradise

and get paid to change the world now

that would be

great wouldn’t it but i bet most of us

are hesitant to repost that to our

social media right away

when you see a headline look beyond for

the substance

or do what i generally do and just move

on

second use multiple data points to make

decisions

we are bombarded minute by minute with

very specific numbers

like the number of coveted cases we seem

to

hang on that particular number and

many decisions are made because of it

just recently the covet case count in

fulton county which

includes the city of atlanta and is

actually where we’re standing right now

was around 30 000.

so but what does that number mean to us

without any additional context

you know it just sounds kind of scary

right

epidemiologists those who study disease

and track it tell us that we should look

at several

several things together not only the

number of cases

but also the case positivity rate and

the number of deaths

so now what if i told you that the

current case positivity rate in fulton

county

was around 4 and it was dropping

the point is that we need to take a step

back

take a deep breath and look at the

bigger picture

one statistic does not make a pandemic

you know a colleague once told me that

the easiest way to be wrong

when looking at a statistic is to focus

on a small and finite time frame

so the third tip is to question numbers

that represent a single point in time

instead look for a seven day rolling

average

and that’s just the average of the data

over seven days

the seven day rolling average adjusts

for when data is not reported or even

when it is

under-reported and why is this important

healthcare facilities and health

departments often do not

publish data on the weekends so you may

see

an a drop in the number of cases in the

drop in the number of deaths on a sunday

or a monday and then all of a sudden

you’ll see a spike on tuesday

what the seven seven-day rolling average

does is it takes that data and evens it

out

and provides us with a more

understandable trend

it brings that more realistic view of

those numbers

the final tip is that correlation does

not

imply causation now i know this one

sounds a little less practical

but hang in there with me because this

one’s really important

correlation is a mutual relationship

or connection between two or more things

and causation goes a step further

causation means that a change in one

thing

causes a change in another we often call

causation cause and effect

the point i want you to get is that just

because

two things are correlated does not mean

that one thing

causes another let me give you a simple

example

did you know that ice cream was

connected to shark attacks

both shark attacks and ice cream cells

increase like clockwork

every single year but

does a rise in ice cream sales cause an

increase in the number of shark attacks

well of course the answer is no

warm weather is actually one of the

culprits

more people are at the beach during warm

weather and hey that’s just where the

sharks happen to be hanging out

and ice cream is just a fantastic snack

on a hot sunny day

in the face of uncertainty data

turned into actionable information can

provide

comfort and help us make good decisions

today i’ve given you four practical tips

for managing information

and decision making that can be really

helpful during this pandemic

and can also be helpful in many other

situations

look beyond the headline use multiple

data points to make decisions

question numbers that represent a single

point in time

and correlation does not imply causation

in the midst of taking care of ourselves

and our families i want to remind you

that you should focus on yourself

women today need to be okay with taking

care of ourselves

take five minutes every day and just

exhale

enjoy that double scoop of cookies and

cream ice cream

without worrying that you just caused a

shark attack

we need to make sure that our cup is

full before we pour into others

remember we are all in this together

thank you

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you