Predictive Technologies

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hello i want to talk

with you today about predictive

technologies

are they our next unwelcome house guest

what do you think or will they help us

build a green

energy system and the energy

future-proofed energy system for

our environment well

what are predictive technologies

obviously

we all heard about it and we all use it

literally every day already when we use

the weather forecast

that’s prediction so if we use our

umbrella or if we need a jacket

that’s already prediction but for many

predictive

technologies that surround us already we

don’t even know or

at least we don’t think of it that way

of course it’s developed but also

recommender systems

so emerson spotify these are the typical

ones netflix

but also job algorithms so when i search

for a new job

the job center might already predict if

it’s worth to invest in you

or not so you see here there are many

problematic fields in there but also

huge advantages especially for climate

change and that’s what we want to talk

about uh

today about the bright and also the dark

sides of it

and also how little data you actually

need to do this

to predict you your surroundings and

much more

and where are the data coming from so by

law in europe

we are required to get smart meters in

europe

so that we get the data of our energy

consumption

monitored they can automatically read

out the

energy consumption we have

and so we will produce in the future a

lot of data where we can do

bad or nice stuff with it and

climate change um is it

it’s coming and it’s a big problem so

one of the big problems there is the

energy system

yeah so we have really to weigh the

costs and

benefits of especially these smart

metering so our electricity data

because it can be public not public

it’s definitely out there so we have to

work with it

yeah so what is the benefit if we have

this data and if we do

a prediction of our energy systems so we

can optimize our

energy production so we that we don’t

produce

too much energy we know exactly in

different areas

how much energy will be used there how

much energy will be produced in

another area so we can optimize the

energy

transport system and we can optimize

the production of renewable energy

so when we can predict the weather how

much wind we will get how much

sunshine we will get and we can predict

the energy use we have

we can combine these together and try to

bring the energy consumption

where we have this green and renewable

energy available for us

everything comes with a cost obviously

and the cost to actually be efficient in

using these energies

are variable or flexible tariffs uh what

does it mean it’s

not flexible for us unfortunately it

just means

that the cost or the price of the

electricity is more flexible to us

which is useful if you can stay at home

and say oh yeah

now it’s a lot of sunshine i’m using my

washing machine now

but it’s really really bad if you’re

already

challenged with with fun with fine

with your finances for example

especially working poor people have a

problem

because they can’t say well i wait now

for my laundry

no i need it tomorrow in the morning so

i can go to work and for these people

can be actually

worse and also i mean now you can say

well then buy a washing machine that

actually tells you when to use it best

well the investment costs especially for

financially challenged people

might not fit that requirement so

but things can happen yeah but

on the other side if we have this all

these appliances

and we have the data we can predict

these appliances

we can say because we have the data in

15 minutes intervals

we can say at this time you have used

your washing machine

you have an old washing machine where

your heating element is

has already a very poor quality so

it can predict okay if you buy now a new

washing machine which will use

the communication with the smart grid to

say okay

i put my my stuff in there i say

start whenever there is a good time for

the grid

to wash my laundry and

we can calculate how long will it take

to get back the money from the energy

savings

you will have with this new machine we

can do gamification uh

things with that so you can look at oh

last week i have used this much energy

this week i’m better

why i’m better what have i changed how

is my friends are doing how is my

neighbors are doing

and we can see how is it globally doing

am i uh

do i save energy or am i spending too

much energy

or also in medicine for elderly assisted

living

we can use this to keep people longer at

home

especially elderly people they have a

very specific

plan of a day so we can predict when

they

normally turn on their coffee machine

when they do their laundry when they’re

cooking their meals so we can predict

if they don’t turn on their washing

machine their coffee machine in the

morning

has there happened something should we

call them

and we don’t need a lot of investment to

build

apartments which can support this and

for example if we say the person starts

to switch on

the lights more and more in the night

that could mean that he’s going to the

toilet

because he is developing

some new disease and should go in for

treatment on the other hand we have the

smart grid so we need to build a

grid that can communicate with each

other the

devices can communicate with each other

but if we can predict

the energy consumption there we need

less infrastructure

we need less building of high voltage

power lines going through the

countryside

we can try to produce the energy we need

with renewable energy at the place where

it is consumed

and we can try to remove to

have not that much non-renewable energy

used in our system

again the cost well

yes we can really be more efficient and

really

start saving a lot of energy but

therefore we have again to invest

a lot primarily

so many countries in the world have to

rebuild the entire power grid system

to actually make it happen and because

of the communication devices that you

formerly didn’t need

you have also higher maintenance costs

but that even makes the risk of attacks

and frauds

even higher and also the risk of

failures

just to have one example at least

2016 in the ukraine there was a cyber

attack

and 200 205

people sit uh sit in the dark for three

hours

well that was actually not too bad but

that is just a start and you can do it

with the worldwide access so

we need really security and security

regulations

to have um a secure power grid

and also when he said gamification and

stuff and when our neighbors know what

we consume

well when the neighbors knew when we

what we consume

well then also companies do

unfortunately and they

i normally don’t use it to make our

lives better but to make more profit

so they will use more recommender

systems and already

uh in the 2020s 35 percent of

amazon sales just come from they’re

recommending us

stuff and also additional target

marketing over google et cetera et

cetera

and supervision of the customer so they

know when you’re pregnant before you do

just on your shopping list not joking

that is happening

so um this could also result in a

typical turbo

capitalism which means more energy more

cheap labor

more garbage more shipping which results

into the same

again and again and again yeah

but on the other side we can also

encourage or enforce

companies to save energy we can monitor

their consumption of energy and compare

this to

other companies in their field or

companies in other regions

and with this comparison we can try to

give them a benefit to be more efficient

and to have like an green sticker for

their products

that they say okay we are using mainly

green energy

we are trying to save energy we try to

shift our

production cycles to times when there is

green energy available

and we don’t use non-renewable energy

and this can also be used as an

innovation driver

for the governments to invest into these

areas to bring

new energy saving technologies into

companies

where there is a lot of energy used and

therefore can be a lot of energy saved

in these areas

again costs we were the companies

already

but it can get worse especially in these

times

where home office becomes more and more

the thing

the monitoring of your efficiency at

home

or also in the office can be done with

your energy data or at least in

some professions and well i don’t like

to be monitored that much

so and also not only efficiency

monitoring but also resource monitoring

so

again we have to tell the companies that

they are not allowed

to do it but also not just as uh

of course as an employee i was already

at a customer but

as a customer it can be time-based

pricing not only for your electricity

but for everything

which again financially challenged

people have

even a bigger problem with that consumer

scoring we know it from germany

when you want to rent a flat they know

already

a lot about you i don’t like if they

know even more about me

and also remote energy control

thing is it is a possibility

that the electricity company and you

have forgotten

to pay once no electricity anymore

and these are just the criminal

companies so they are criminals

when your neighbor knows how much energy

you use then also other people

in the world wide web and also near

around you so if you don’t

use energy because you’re on holiday

something can just

come for a short wizard maybe

so uh and also ransomware it could

actually uh

be a problem for uh the utility provider

that happened in michigan

were a week down water and electricity

not that good

um and you can’t be even a criminal

yourself anymore

why because you see in the data when you

have like a 40

square meter flat that happens in my

research actually

uh and you see like everybody’s like

have

the same kind of amount of energy usage

and then there are two people just with

3 000 kilowatt hours more than everybody

else

two reasons for that mariana operations

or a really really cool server system

but it will it is also used already

for policing so for

prediction policy in ohio and there they

find

the mariana operations

so the future yes um

it can be bad by behavioral analysis

prediction enhancements and also this

policy

and we have to be aware of that and it

can always be worse

this would just outline us but

can it be better for sure yeah it can be

better

but we have to work together to bring it

to a better

system and what we need for that is we

need to have awareness about it

we need to know what is to be done with

our data

and we need legislation for all this

data how can it be used how should it be

used

and what can be predicted and what

should not be predicted with all this

data

so yeah all in all together it’s our

responsible

uh our responsibility to also demand for

it

to demand for legislation that this and

the dis prediction technology

can be used actually uh to uh

challenge uh the climate change and to

make things better

and not worse not for us privately not

for the companies

and so on and so on and yeah legislation

will make the difference it will be key

and we

are there for demanding it and i hope we

both could give you an insight and yeah

feel free to ask any questions after

what’s

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