Lifes a Game so Lets Play
let’s start off with the scenario
i want you to imagine that you just
bought the most perfect cake in front of
you
but there’s two problems it’s small and
your friend is with you
so let’s say that you and your friend
agree from the beginning
that you are going to cut and that you
are going to choose your first piece
so the question is how would you cut the
cake
would you cut it so that both of the
pieces are even or would you cut it so
that one piece
is bigger than the other now let’s
change it up a little bit and let’s say
that you’re still the person cutting but
this time
your friend gets to pick first how would
you cut the cake then
would you cut it in even pieces or would
you still cut to where one is bigger
than the other i want you to keep your
answer in mind
while we analyze this really simple
situation
so obviously in that first situation you
want to cut yourself the bigger piece
and take the bigger piece it is your
cake after all
but in that second situation where your
friend is going to pick the first piece
you would want to cut even pieces
because you don’t want to end up
with a smaller piece of cake this is
really simple
it’s understandable it’s logical it
makes sense
it’s just cake cutting in both
situations you are behaving in a way
that benefits yourself
the most but depending on whether your
friend gets to pick the
pick the piece first will change your
behavior
and this is what game theory is
we’re using game theory every single day
whether we realize it or not
we’re using it at home we’re using it at
school we’re using it even at work
we used it to determine how to cut a
cake
game theory analyzes the steps a person
takes
when they’re making a decision and how
that decision
will ultimately affect the outcome for
yourself
and for those involved choosing how to
cut a cake
is a game where every decision you make
will affect the outcome for yourself
both for yourself
and for your friend when you are in
control when you
are holding that knife you want to put
you want to put yourself
in that better position where you will
benefit the most
from the situation now i want to play a
game
this is called the numbers game and it’s
actually from the book the artist
strategy
this game is used to demonstrate how
game theory works
with a game maker’s perspective and a
player’s perspective
so behind this question mark i have a
pre-selected number your
job is to guess the number behind the
question mark
you as an audience have five guesses and
after each guess
i will tell you whether your my number
is higher or lower
than your number so if you’re thinking
about this game strategically
and logically what would your first
guess
be
- 50 is the perfect place to start and
here’s why
by me telling you that my number it’s
less than 50.
well now you’ve eliminated half of the
possibilities and you’ve increased your
chances
from 1 in 100 to 1 in 50.
now your second guess what would your
second guess be
25 good you’re catching on but my number
is bigger than 25.
now your third guess what is your third
guess going to be
it would be 37 because again it is that
halfway part
halfway point between 25 and 50. but my
number is still
bigger than 37. now your fourth guess
what is your fourth guess going to be 43
43 but my number is still higher than 43
but you’re getting really close now
before your last
guess i’m going to give you a hint i
as the game maker my goal is to make you
lose
i do not want you to win i know that
strategically your best bet
is to divide customers in half and
increase your chances
of getting it randomly correct on that
last try
but the number here that i picked was
intentional
it was meant to reduce your chances of
getting it right
even if you are increasing your chances
every step of the way
so if you’re thinking about this
logically what number
am i least expecting you to say which
one
is the last one that you would ever
i’m hearing a lot of 49. so i want you
to raise your hand
if you believe that the number is 49.
that’s quite a few of you now i want you
to use that hand and pat yourself on the
back
because you just got the participation
award because you lost
and i’m really sorry and let me tell you
why
from the very beginning i was being
intentional with my choices
with the number that i picked and the
information that i was giving you
the number that i picked was like i said
intentional it was meant to reduce your
chances
of guessing it right before your last
guess i even told you what my goal was
and that this number would be the very
last one that you expect
my number here was 48.
49 was close but you weren’t right
by picking 48 i put myself in a better
position
because the chances of you actually
straying away from 49
after all the information that i’ve
given you is actually quite low
i calculated my chances before i came
here today
everything is a game every time you are
making a decision
this is game theory applies now reverse
psychology can work with the game too
i know that you know what my strategy is
and so if from the very beginning i
believe that you are going to pick
48 then i would pick 49
or even 47. but this is where it gets
complicated
we could keep going back and forth
between 48
and 49 and we could even throw in 47
but ultimately it comes down to chance
it comes down to probability
and this is what decision making is in
your life before you make a decision
you have to calculate your chances and
you weigh
your outcomes and that’s how you make
your decision
all of this here is game theory it’s
just from different perspectives
when you are put in a situation where
you have to make a decision
you have to take into consideration what
the objective is
and how the other people in that same
situation will behave
that is how you should make your
decision so with the cake cutting game
you are putting yourself in that better
position you took into consideration
what your friend was going to do whether
they were picking a piece
or not and that’s how you ended up with
either the bigger piece of cake
or at least an equal slice of cake
but in the numbers game you guys lost
because you failed to take into
consideration
what my true objective was and what my
true strategy was
we’re using game theory every day to
make decisions
when you are put in a situation where
you have to make a decision
it is ultimately a game
imagine you’re in school and you’re
taking a test what is your best strategy
it’s to study but what happens if you
didn’t study
well then you would want to increase
your chances of getting an
a how would you do that well when you
have a question in front of you
you want to increase your chances of
getting the correct answer
so you would cross off the answers that
you know aren’t right
and increase your chances by increasing
your chances of getting the right answer
on each question
you’re increasing your overall chance of
getting an a
when you’re trying to pick people for a
group project
you don’t want to pick the people who
won’t do work
you want to pick the people who will
actually help you
and which will result in a better
outcome for your presentation
a few other examples would be when you
are bargaining with a salesperson
for a car or a house when you’re trying
to pick a route home
when you’re trying to cut a cake you’re
using game theory everything
is a game but you have to make sure that
you take into consideration
what the objective is and what the
strategy is
just because it’s a game doesn’t mean
you should take it lightly
if we’re really thinking about it life
is a game where you are constantly
making decisions
and each decision will affect the
outcome for both yourself
and everyone else involved so you should
really take the time to sit down
and consider what your true objective is
what the strategies
are and what the outcomes may be
because life is a game so let’s take up
that challenge
and let’s play it to our full potential
thank you