Navigating Our Global Future Ian Goldin

[Music]

[Applause]

the future as we know is very

unpredictable the best minds in the best

institutions generally get it wrong this

is in technology this is in the area of

politics where pundits the CIA mi6

always get it wrong and it’s clearly in

the area of finance where the

institutions established to think about

the future the IMF the BIS the financial

stability forum couldn’t see what was

coming over 20,000 economists whose job

it is competitive entry to get there

couldn’t see what was happening

globalization is getting more complex

and this change is getting more rapid

the future will be more unpredictable

urbanization integration coming together

leads to new Renaissance it did this a

thousand years ago the last 40 years

have been extraordinary times life

expectancy has gone up by about 25 years

it took from the Stone Age to achieve

that income has gone up for majority of

the world’s population despite the

population going up by about two billion

people over this period and illiteracy

has gone down from 1/2 to about a

quarter the people on earth a huge

opportunity unleashing of new potential

for innovation for development but

there’s an underbelly there too Achilles

heels of globalization

there’s the killer’s heel of growing

inequality those that are left out those

that feel angry those that are not

participating globalization has not been

inclusive the second Achilles heel is

complexity a growing fragility a growing

brittleness what happens in one place

very quickly affects everything else

this is systemic risk systemic shock

we’ve seen it in the financial crisis

we’ve seen it in the pandemic flu it

will become violent and it’s something

we have to build resilience again a lot

of this is driven by what’s happening on

technology there’s been huge leaps there

will be a million fold improvement in

what you can get for the same price in

computing by 2030 that’s what the

experience of the last 20 years has been

it will continue our computers our

systems will be as primitive as the

Apollo’s are for today our mobile phones

are more powerful than the total Apollo

space engine our mobile phones are more

powerful that’s one the strongest

peters of 20 years ago so what will this

do it will create huge opportunities in

technology miniaturization as well there

will be invisible capacity invisible

capacity in our bodies in our brains and

in the air this is a dust mite on a nano

replica this sort of ability to do

everything in new ways unleashes

potential not least in the area of

medicine this is a stem cell that we’ve

developed here in Oxford from a

embryonic stem cell we can develop any

part of the body increasingly over time

this will be possible from our own skin

able to replicate parts of the body

fantastic potential for regenerative

medicine I don’t think there’ll be a

Special Olympics long after 2030 because

of this capacity to regenerate parts of

the body but the question is who will

have it the other major development is

going to be in the area of what can

happen on genetics the capacity to

create as this mouse has been

genetically modified something which

goes three times faster lasts for 3

times long and we could produce as this

mouse can to the age of our equivalent

of 80 years with using about the same

amount of food but will this only be

available for the super rich for those

that can afford it are we heading for

new eugenics we’ll only those that are

able to afford it able to be the super

race of the future so the big question

for us is how do we manage this

technological change how do we ensure

that it creates a more inclusive

technology a technology which means that

not only as we grow older but we can

also grow wiser and if we able support

the populations of the future one of the

most dramatic manifestations of these

improvements will be moving from

population pyramids to what we might

term population coffins there’s unlikely

to be a pension or retirement age in

2030 these will be redundant concepts

and this isn’t only something of the

West the most dramatic changes will be

the skyscraper type of new pyramids that

will take place in China and in many

other countries

so forget about retirements if you’re

young forget about pensions think about

life and where it’s going to be going of

course migration will become even more

important the war on talent the need to

attract people at all skill ranges to

push us around in our wheelchairs but

also to

drive our economies our innovation will

be vital the employment in the rich

countries will go down for about 800 to

700 million of these people this would

imply a massive leap in migration so the

concerns the xenophobic concerns of

today or migration will be turned on

their head as we search for people to

help us sort out our pensions and our

economies in the future and then the

systemic risks we understand that these

will become much more virulent

that what we see today is this

interweaving of societies of systems

fastened by technologies in hastened by

just-in-time management systems small

levels of stock push resilience into

other people’s responsibilities the

collapse in biodiversity climate change

pandemics financial crises these will be

the currency that we will think about

and so a new awareness will have to

arise of how we deal with these how we

mobilize ourselves in a new way and come

together as a community to manage

systemic risk it’s going to require

innovation it’s going to require an

understanding that the glory of

globalization could also be its downfall

this could be our best century ever

because of the achievements or it could

be our worst and of course we need to

worry about the individuals particularly

the individuals that feel that they’ve

been left out in one way or another an

individual for the first time in the

history of humanity will have the

capacity by 2030 to destroy the planet

to wreck everything through the creation

for example of a bio pathogen how do we

begin to weave these tapestries together

how do we think about complex systems in

new ways that will be the challenge of

the scholars and of all of us are

engaged in thinking about the future

the rest of our lives will be in the

future we need to prepare for it now we

need to understand that the governance

structure in the world is fossilized it

cannot begin to cope with the challenges

that this will bring we have to develop

a new way of managing the planet

collectively through collective wisdom

we know and I know from my own

experience that amazing things can

happen when individuals and societies

come together to change their future I

left South Africa and 15 years later

after thinking I would never go back we

had the privilege and the honor to work

in the government of Nelson Mandela this

was a miracle we can create miracles

collectively in our lifetime it is vital

that we

deucey his white let the ideas that are

nurtured in Ted that the ideas that we

think about look forward and make sure

that this will be the most glorious

century and not one of eco disaster

Anika collapse thank you

[Applause]