Fossil Fuels Peaked in 2019

um

i’m very glad to be a part of this tedx

call

you may not know our organization dndgl

we are a global risk management

consultancy advisory

outfit we have about 12 000 people

in 100 countries 70 of us

work in energy in one form or another

um a lot of people thousands work in oil

and gas

thousands work in power and renewables

and also a lot of people work in

shipping

where the transition to the carbonized

fuels is extremely

important we

are forecasters also

and we have a model uh

and we are uh more than 100 people to

participate in this exercise and

every year we um make a report

we call the energy transition outlook

we’ve done that

for four years this year our main

insights

is first of all that covet 19

matters it reduces energy demand by

eight percent

and puts peak emissions behind us

we also see very rapid electrification

dominated by uh solar pv where

uh capacities will increase 24 fold to

2050

also in wind wear capacities will

increase 12 fold to 2050

and this transforms the energy mix

however uh the future is not that

rosy the carbonization of hard to abate

sectors

remains too slow and we will miss

the paris agreement targets

our approach uh i need to spend half a

minute on that

we uh talk about our organization’s best

estimate so this is not the future

we would like to see this is not the

goal this is how we see the world

unfolding the technology

the policies everything

we provide a single forecast not this

suit of different

scenarios we focus on the picture

the long-term picture this is quite

important

because we for instance do not have

explicit

gas markets or oil markets where there

are important imbalances in demand and

supply

thus perhaps depressing prices

at certain times or increasing them at

others

we look at prices as determined by

production costs we do not assume

any new technologies appearing there are

no major disruptions

in technology all the technologies we

talk about are already

there but they will as i mentioned they

will grow a lot of them

have included uh estimates of how

policies

will evolve uh and in particular climate

policies um an

important part of that is my last point

here is

behavioral changes so we will see that

behavior political behavior will change

and also individual behavior will change

we make a key assumptions to 2050

we project the world population

increasing about a quarter to

9.4 billion people slightly less than

what

u.n forecasts

we forecast economic growth so that

gdp globally in constant dollars will

double to 2050.

uh we have seen over the last decades

uh rapid declines in costs

of uh solar wind and battery

technologies in particular

and we see no reason that these

fundamental cost

learning rates will change so we see

that

the cost learning rates in the teens and

in the

low twenties for every doubling of

capacity that is

will continue

when it comes to carbon prices in

particular uh which is an

important part of uh climate policies we

see

these prices increasing with uh europe

being sort of uh the most prominent

where we forecast that the

carbon prices will increase to 80 per

ton

in 2050. so this then means

that when we look into the future we see

a global primary energy supply

that will peak already in 2032

and when we look further to 2050 coal

consumption will be reduced by 65 two

thirds

till then and oil use will almost

be cut in half

this then means that emissions will also

be reduced emissions have already peaked

carbon emissions energy related carbon

emissions have already peaked

and they will basically be cut in half

to 20

50. when we look

not at the primary energy supply but the

final energy demand that is

what kind of fuels

are used at the final users

we see that this demand will peak in

we also see that electricity demand in

the world

will more than double between now and

2050

at the expense of oil as we have talked

about

and coal

uh if we look at the final energy demand

by sectors

we see that uh there is uh

significant growth in buildings with

stable energy use in

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manufacturing and in

transport my theme today is

fossil fuel peak

actually peak fossil fuel use

is behind us that happened last year

this year fossil use will

decline by about eight percent

and it will never recover

so from now on fossil fuel demand

will uh be flat for the next 10 years

and then it will gradually decline

so that as we have seen it will be

almost cut in half

by 2050. the reason why it’s flat for

the next 10 years when

oil and coal is declining is that there

is significant growth

in gas as we will see here

coal peaked already in 2014.

and as i have mentioned

consumption will decline by two thirds

to twenty

fifty oil peak was last year

and uh consumption will be cut in half

by 2050 gas peak will be in 2035

and there will be some significant

decline thereafter

at 2 20 50.

why is there such a strong

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decline in fossil fuel demand

it has a lot to do with rapid

electrification

and this is an illustration we see

that the sales of electric vehicles

will increase rapidly to 2032

and further on already in 2032

half of all new passenger vehicles sold

in the world

will be electric that means battery

electric so these are not plugging

hybrids

plugging hardwoods will play a very

minor role

in the energy transition as seen on the

top

left here so this means that when we

come to 2050

uh three quarters of all passenger

vehicles and about two-thirds of all

commercial vehicles will actually be

fueled by electricity if you look into

it

at two and three-wheelers this shift

happens

even earlier so the 90 percent fleet

share will happen already before 2040.

this electricity increase we will also

see in other sectors in buildings

for instance uh where heat pumps

will afford extreme energy efficiency

efficiency

electricity matters also in road

transport because a typical electric

vehicle

uses only a quarter of the energy of

an internal combustion engine vehicle

and that has to do with the fact that uh

internal combustion engines

they uh use only a quarter of the

energy for propulsion rest is lost

in heat

so what i’ve told you about now is all

in our

energy transition outlook report you can

download for free

but not only the report you can also

download

all the underlying data for free at this

address i provide here

you