The future of space exploration
every kid
loves space i mean how could you not
when you first see images like this
you’re suddenly confronted with the
grandeur of our home planet this
big blue marble floating through space
looks nothing like what we might naively
expect earth to look like
this one picture right here teaches us
how our view of the world can be very
different from different perspectives
and then you see pictures like this
taken more or less from the furthest
point that humans have ever been away
from earth
the earth looks to the moon just like
the moon looks to us
waxing and waning over time as the sun
illuminates different parts of the
surface
this process of the moon orbiting the
earth and the earth orbiting the sun
started long before we were around and
will continue for a long time yet
completely oblivious to the life on
earth’s surface
and then you see pictures like this
taken by the cassini spacecraft in its
orbit around saturn
where our entire lives literally
everyone we know
and love is just there captured within
this distant speck
from the vantage point of the outer
solar system and we can zoom out even
further
until eventually we become that pale
blue dot
an insignificant pixel in the vastness
of space
as a kid that pale blue dot both scared
and excited me
it was humbling to know how little we
were on the cosmic scale
and it made me eager to learn about the
rest of the universe and what was in it
from its exotic exoplanets to its
mind-bending black holes
but as i grew older my childlike
fascination with space
slowly dwindled space was still
interesting sure
but it didn’t really excite me like it
once did i was born too late to
experience the space fever of the apollo
missions
and i was born far too early to witness
us colonize of the planets and venture
out into the cosmos
also i thought but then i saw this
[Applause]
for me there’s something so mesmerizing
and futuristic about watching these two
rocket boosters
land autonomously simultaneously after
being on the edge of space just minutes
before
when i watch that video i feel all
fascination
but also hope this photo right here
summarizes what is possible
when humans come together and decide
that they do want to go to space
for centuries now we’ve had a distant
dream of being able to venture to the
stars at light speed
and forge a galactic empire the small
step
that neil armstrong took 50 years ago on
the surface of the moon
was meant to be that giant leap which
propelled us into the future of space
exploration
nasa even had a plan to land people on
mars in the 1980s
but obviously that never came to be then
the space shuttle was meant to
dramatically bring down the cost of
space travel
and inspire the post-apollo generation
but huge expenses
and the two fatal disasters of
challenger in 1986
and colombia in 2003 meant that the
support for the space program
declined there’s also the start stop
culture at organizations such as nasa
nasa is a government agency and as such
there’s been a distinctive cycle over
the last few decades
of one president setting up an
initiative and a goal for nasa to work
towards
only for the next president to scrap
that goal and establish a new aim
instead
this politics is exactly why astronauts
never made it to mars in the 1980s
and why there seems to be a new
objective for nasa every few years
so why be optimistic why am i so
confident that we’re now living through
a space revolution
and that by the end of this century will
not only have set foot on mars
but have accomplished so much more some
things which are probably unthinkable to
us now
well the answer is one word competition
everyone knows that what predominantly
drove the space race in the 50s and 60s
was cold war competition
between the soviet union and the united
states once the moon had been reached
there was much less incentive for
governments to invest in long-term goals
for space exploration
but we live in a new age of competition
not only between nations but also
between companies the privatization of
space means that companies are competing
with each other
to drive down the cost of getting to
space as well as rethinking the best way
to do it
a government has a lot of things to
worry about and a lot of priorities to
take care of
whereas a company can be a lot more
focused some
may solely focus on optimizing getting
satellites into lower low earth orbits
for example
whereas others may do that as a stepping
stone to ultimately get to mars
when one person or several people take
leadership of a company for a sustained
period of time
that can drive forward progress towards
a specific goal
now it’s important to remember that
space isn’t about to become entirely
private
governments can and will still have an
important role to play
as demonstrated by the recent missions
to mars from the us uae
and china space exploration is becoming
more and more of an international
enterprise
and governments will be at the heart of
that not least to figure out the gray
area of
the law in space but we have now reached
a point where it’s the healthy
competition between companies
which is driving innovation and progress
in space exploration
towards the future but what is that
future
well that’s kind of the beauty of
competition there is no
linear path the future ought to take we
live in a time where different companies
and agencies have different views of
what that future should be
the result is that a lot of people are
working simultaneously on different
projects
and the space sector is steadily growing
as more and more people join in
for some the key project for the future
is establishing a permanent base on the
moon
nasa’s artemis program named after the
twin sister of apollo
is a mission which aims to get the first
woman and next man
on the moon by 2024 it’s a great example
of the international cooperation that
space exploration can generate
with nasa partnering up with
organizations from canada to europe to
japan
the secondary aim of the programme which
is to establish a long-term presence on
the moon by the end of this decade
would give nasa crucial information and
experience before their eventual human
trip to mars by the end of the 2030s
and whilst nasa is obviously a
government agency they’re also
collaborating with commercial companies
to actively encourage this private
competition and speed up development
the artemis program will include a base
camp at the lunar south pole
which would initially house astronauts
for weeks at a time as well as the
gateway
an outpost orbiting the moon which
astronauts will dock to first
before landing on the lunar surface now
a lot of people have the goal of getting
to mars but in terms of how best to do
that
well there are two main schools of
thought some think we should be putting
all our efforts into getting to mars
now and that will learn the necessary
lessons along the way
others believe in a moose moon first
mars later approach
where establishing a moon base is a
vital first step in the process of
getting to the red planet
nasa clearly believes in the second
option and it does have quite a few
benefits
the moon is a perfect stop-off point for
travel from earth to both the inner and
outer solar system
it’s small so it has a low surface
gravity that
and the lack of atmosphere means that
it’s both easier and cheaper to launch
rockets from the moon
than the earth the recent confirmation
of liquid water on the surface
means that there’s the potential of
manufacturing rocket fuel from that
water
making the moon a possible refueling
station and further reducing the cost of
space travel
especially to mars and by first
establishing a moon base scientists can
further understand
how the human body copes in low gravity
for long periods of time
before sending people to mars plus
any astronauts in an emergency have a
much higher chance of potentially being
rescued by someone on earth
than if they were on mars a lot lot
further away
for others the key project for the
future is asteroid mining
there are multiple companies and
startups out there dedicated to
researching and engineering the
technology needed
to go out and extract valuable resources
from asteroids
and this is definitely a worthy goal to
have now
asteroids may look like boring lumps of
rock but they come in different types
with some full of metals like nickel
iron platinum and gold
on earth the majority of heli of heavy
elements like these sunk towards the
core during the planet’s formation
and the small fragments which we managed
to mine on the surface were most likely
deposited there by asteroids themselves
crashing into the planet
millions or billions of years ago
a typical metallic asteroid can may
contain trillions of dollars worth of
precious metals
and they’re estimated to be between 1
and 2 million asteroids in the asteroid
belt alone
not only would it be possible to export
these materials back to earth
but materials such as iron could be
mined in space and used
in space for further construction
projects when building
infrastructure on the moon for example
it would probably be cheaper
to send iron from the asteroid belt over
the millions of miles it takes to get to
the moon
then it would be to mind the iron on
earth and send it up into space
since launching stuff from earth is
still so expensive
and although the gold-filled asteroids
steal the headlines it’s the asteroids
which contain water that are likely to
be the main focus in the near future
since water is the most important
substance in space
not only is it useful as drinking water
but it can also be used to shield us
from radiation
or even make rocket fuel just like the
moon the prospect of using asteroids as
refueling stops would further reduce the
cost of space travel
now there are multiple ideas out there
of how to actually go about mining
asteroids including
harpoons magnetic rakes and even optical
mining
where concentrated sunlight essentially
vaporizes the asteroid surface
but the key thing to take away is that
multiple companies are working on
multiple approaches
and in terms of time scale it’s quite
likely that within 10 years
mining vehicles will have gone out to
asteroids and brought back a significant
amount of resources
now for others obviously the key project
for the future is building a permanent
base
on mars spacex for example aims to
launch their first unmanned mission to
mars in 2024
with their first manned mission to lift
off a couple of years later
whilst nasa with its moon first mars
later strategy
is targeting the late 2030s for human
footprints on the red planet
in any case it’s certainly not
unfeasible for humans to set foot on
mars by the end of this decade
and getting there by 2050 for example is
a very attainable goal
now the idea of getting to mars
certainly captures the imagination the
most
we’ve already been to the moon but the
idea of humanity forging a new martian
civilization
is something which has been dreamt about
for a long time
but going to mars is clearly the most
ambitious of these near future space
projects
traveling there is nothing like going to
the moon and there are a load of
challenges to overcome
first off mars is roughly 600 times
further away than the moon
the three-day trip to the moon is
nothing compared to the six-month
expedition
it takes to reach mars now one of the
main threats during the journey to mars
would be the harmful radiation from the
from the sun in the form of gamma rays
x-rays and uv light for example
on earth we’re protected from this by
two main things our magnetic field and
our atmosphere
but obviously out in the vacuum of space
neither of those things are there to
protect us
now it would be possible to protect
astronauts during the journey by placing
water tanks in the walls of the
spacecraft
which would which would absorb most of
this radiation but mars itself
has no magnetic field and its atmosphere
is very thin
about 100 times thinner than earth’s to
protect yourself from radiation on the
martian surface
you need to make sure your habitats are
either underground or under lots of
layers of dirt
the fact that mars is so far away means
that solar power is only about 40 as
effective as it is here
which is obviously impractical for
powering a settlement
this means that it’s likely that the
first few habitats will be fueled by
nuclear power
mars’s distance from earth also means
that a phone call would be
impossible it would take anywhere
between 3 and 22 minutes for someone on
mars to hear what someone on earth was
saying
it’s important to remember that when we
talk about astronomical distances
the speed of light is actually pretty
slow
i’ve already mentioned the thin
atmosphere and this also poses problems
when landing on mars
atmospheric drag is really important for
slowing spacecraft down before landing
but this effect on mars is a lot less
powerful so any attempt at landing on
the surface has to be thought through
carefully
this is why spacex for example are
considering a belly flop approach
which maximizes the effect of
atmospheric drag and slows the
spacecraft down as much as possible
before it engages retrorockets to slow
itself down even further
and ultimately land safely there’s also
the issue of growing food in space
as well as dealing with the low gravity
environment and its effects on the human
body
but scientists on the international
space station have been hard at work on
both of these issues
planters plants have been successfully
harvested and eaten by crew on the iss
and we continue to learn more every day
about how they behave in microgravity
there’s also research ongoing into
aquaponics which combines raising fish
and tanks
with growing plants in water without
soil and this will likely be the primary
way of feeding martian astronauts
the way humans react to spending
prolonged periods of time outside of
earth’s gravity
is still being understood but this month
marks 20 years of a continual human
presence in the space station
and we have learned a lot of lessons in
that time about how to keep humans safe
in space and it’s important to point out
these numerous challenges facing an
expedition to mars
because it’s easy to dream of
terraforming mars tomorrow and making it
a second home planet
whilst that won’t happen for a very long
time these challenges facing us now
are surmountable with more and more
people dedicating their lives to
tackling them
so what is the future of space
exploration well
it’s all of these projects and more
which are being taken on simultaneously
by more and more people every day whilst
it’s hard to predict which of these will
come to fruition first and foresee all
of the potential problems along the way
the fact that the space fever is growing
and more and more people are joining the
new space race
accelerates our progress even more it
creates a positive feedback loop
the more successes we have the more
attention the space sector generates
and the more inspiration there is for
the next generation
there are hundreds if not thousands of
youtube channels
podcasts documentaries books and movies
examining the future of space travel
and what challenges this new chapter in
human history will bring
every day more people are realizing that
the new space age
really has already begun now i’m sure
there are some of you who are still
skeptical about the realities of any of
these projects happening anytime soon
after all futurists are keen to jump
onto the bandwagon and get excitement
going
but in reality there are plenty of
unresolved issues standing between us
and these goals
and some still sound like they belong in
the realm of science fiction
but after watching videos such as
spacex’s successful test flight of the
falcon heavy
after seeing what a collective human
effort is capable of achieving in such a
short space of time
a spark of childlike awe ignites in me
for the first time in years
and i’m not the only one kids are being
inspired by recent missions to learn
about science
understand our place in the cosmos and
to dream big
there are people who spend their lives
working towards the dream of the future
in space
and because of their efforts that future
is approaching us at an ever greater
rate
the space revolution has already begun
and it will only accelerate as time goes
on
people will look back on this time as
the birth of a new era of humans in
space
be grateful for the opportunity to be
alive right now
the most exciting time in human history
as we dare to go
where no humans have gone before thank
you