The future of space exploration

every kid

loves space i mean how could you not

when you first see images like this

you’re suddenly confronted with the

grandeur of our home planet this

big blue marble floating through space

looks nothing like what we might naively

expect earth to look like

this one picture right here teaches us

how our view of the world can be very

different from different perspectives

and then you see pictures like this

taken more or less from the furthest

point that humans have ever been away

from earth

the earth looks to the moon just like

the moon looks to us

waxing and waning over time as the sun

illuminates different parts of the

surface

this process of the moon orbiting the

earth and the earth orbiting the sun

started long before we were around and

will continue for a long time yet

completely oblivious to the life on

earth’s surface

and then you see pictures like this

taken by the cassini spacecraft in its

orbit around saturn

where our entire lives literally

everyone we know

and love is just there captured within

this distant speck

from the vantage point of the outer

solar system and we can zoom out even

further

until eventually we become that pale

blue dot

an insignificant pixel in the vastness

of space

as a kid that pale blue dot both scared

and excited me

it was humbling to know how little we

were on the cosmic scale

and it made me eager to learn about the

rest of the universe and what was in it

from its exotic exoplanets to its

mind-bending black holes

but as i grew older my childlike

fascination with space

slowly dwindled space was still

interesting sure

but it didn’t really excite me like it

once did i was born too late to

experience the space fever of the apollo

missions

and i was born far too early to witness

us colonize of the planets and venture

out into the cosmos

also i thought but then i saw this

[Applause]

for me there’s something so mesmerizing

and futuristic about watching these two

rocket boosters

land autonomously simultaneously after

being on the edge of space just minutes

before

when i watch that video i feel all

fascination

but also hope this photo right here

summarizes what is possible

when humans come together and decide

that they do want to go to space

for centuries now we’ve had a distant

dream of being able to venture to the

stars at light speed

and forge a galactic empire the small

step

that neil armstrong took 50 years ago on

the surface of the moon

was meant to be that giant leap which

propelled us into the future of space

exploration

nasa even had a plan to land people on

mars in the 1980s

but obviously that never came to be then

the space shuttle was meant to

dramatically bring down the cost of

space travel

and inspire the post-apollo generation

but huge expenses

and the two fatal disasters of

challenger in 1986

and colombia in 2003 meant that the

support for the space program

declined there’s also the start stop

culture at organizations such as nasa

nasa is a government agency and as such

there’s been a distinctive cycle over

the last few decades

of one president setting up an

initiative and a goal for nasa to work

towards

only for the next president to scrap

that goal and establish a new aim

instead

this politics is exactly why astronauts

never made it to mars in the 1980s

and why there seems to be a new

objective for nasa every few years

so why be optimistic why am i so

confident that we’re now living through

a space revolution

and that by the end of this century will

not only have set foot on mars

but have accomplished so much more some

things which are probably unthinkable to

us now

well the answer is one word competition

everyone knows that what predominantly

drove the space race in the 50s and 60s

was cold war competition

between the soviet union and the united

states once the moon had been reached

there was much less incentive for

governments to invest in long-term goals

for space exploration

but we live in a new age of competition

not only between nations but also

between companies the privatization of

space means that companies are competing

with each other

to drive down the cost of getting to

space as well as rethinking the best way

to do it

a government has a lot of things to

worry about and a lot of priorities to

take care of

whereas a company can be a lot more

focused some

may solely focus on optimizing getting

satellites into lower low earth orbits

for example

whereas others may do that as a stepping

stone to ultimately get to mars

when one person or several people take

leadership of a company for a sustained

period of time

that can drive forward progress towards

a specific goal

now it’s important to remember that

space isn’t about to become entirely

private

governments can and will still have an

important role to play

as demonstrated by the recent missions

to mars from the us uae

and china space exploration is becoming

more and more of an international

enterprise

and governments will be at the heart of

that not least to figure out the gray

area of

the law in space but we have now reached

a point where it’s the healthy

competition between companies

which is driving innovation and progress

in space exploration

towards the future but what is that

future

well that’s kind of the beauty of

competition there is no

linear path the future ought to take we

live in a time where different companies

and agencies have different views of

what that future should be

the result is that a lot of people are

working simultaneously on different

projects

and the space sector is steadily growing

as more and more people join in

for some the key project for the future

is establishing a permanent base on the

moon

nasa’s artemis program named after the

twin sister of apollo

is a mission which aims to get the first

woman and next man

on the moon by 2024 it’s a great example

of the international cooperation that

space exploration can generate

with nasa partnering up with

organizations from canada to europe to

japan

the secondary aim of the programme which

is to establish a long-term presence on

the moon by the end of this decade

would give nasa crucial information and

experience before their eventual human

trip to mars by the end of the 2030s

and whilst nasa is obviously a

government agency they’re also

collaborating with commercial companies

to actively encourage this private

competition and speed up development

the artemis program will include a base

camp at the lunar south pole

which would initially house astronauts

for weeks at a time as well as the

gateway

an outpost orbiting the moon which

astronauts will dock to first

before landing on the lunar surface now

a lot of people have the goal of getting

to mars but in terms of how best to do

that

well there are two main schools of

thought some think we should be putting

all our efforts into getting to mars

now and that will learn the necessary

lessons along the way

others believe in a moose moon first

mars later approach

where establishing a moon base is a

vital first step in the process of

getting to the red planet

nasa clearly believes in the second

option and it does have quite a few

benefits

the moon is a perfect stop-off point for

travel from earth to both the inner and

outer solar system

it’s small so it has a low surface

gravity that

and the lack of atmosphere means that

it’s both easier and cheaper to launch

rockets from the moon

than the earth the recent confirmation

of liquid water on the surface

means that there’s the potential of

manufacturing rocket fuel from that

water

making the moon a possible refueling

station and further reducing the cost of

space travel

especially to mars and by first

establishing a moon base scientists can

further understand

how the human body copes in low gravity

for long periods of time

before sending people to mars plus

any astronauts in an emergency have a

much higher chance of potentially being

rescued by someone on earth

than if they were on mars a lot lot

further away

for others the key project for the

future is asteroid mining

there are multiple companies and

startups out there dedicated to

researching and engineering the

technology needed

to go out and extract valuable resources

from asteroids

and this is definitely a worthy goal to

have now

asteroids may look like boring lumps of

rock but they come in different types

with some full of metals like nickel

iron platinum and gold

on earth the majority of heli of heavy

elements like these sunk towards the

core during the planet’s formation

and the small fragments which we managed

to mine on the surface were most likely

deposited there by asteroids themselves

crashing into the planet

millions or billions of years ago

a typical metallic asteroid can may

contain trillions of dollars worth of

precious metals

and they’re estimated to be between 1

and 2 million asteroids in the asteroid

belt alone

not only would it be possible to export

these materials back to earth

but materials such as iron could be

mined in space and used

in space for further construction

projects when building

infrastructure on the moon for example

it would probably be cheaper

to send iron from the asteroid belt over

the millions of miles it takes to get to

the moon

then it would be to mind the iron on

earth and send it up into space

since launching stuff from earth is

still so expensive

and although the gold-filled asteroids

steal the headlines it’s the asteroids

which contain water that are likely to

be the main focus in the near future

since water is the most important

substance in space

not only is it useful as drinking water

but it can also be used to shield us

from radiation

or even make rocket fuel just like the

moon the prospect of using asteroids as

refueling stops would further reduce the

cost of space travel

now there are multiple ideas out there

of how to actually go about mining

asteroids including

harpoons magnetic rakes and even optical

mining

where concentrated sunlight essentially

vaporizes the asteroid surface

but the key thing to take away is that

multiple companies are working on

multiple approaches

and in terms of time scale it’s quite

likely that within 10 years

mining vehicles will have gone out to

asteroids and brought back a significant

amount of resources

now for others obviously the key project

for the future is building a permanent

base

on mars spacex for example aims to

launch their first unmanned mission to

mars in 2024

with their first manned mission to lift

off a couple of years later

whilst nasa with its moon first mars

later strategy

is targeting the late 2030s for human

footprints on the red planet

in any case it’s certainly not

unfeasible for humans to set foot on

mars by the end of this decade

and getting there by 2050 for example is

a very attainable goal

now the idea of getting to mars

certainly captures the imagination the

most

we’ve already been to the moon but the

idea of humanity forging a new martian

civilization

is something which has been dreamt about

for a long time

but going to mars is clearly the most

ambitious of these near future space

projects

traveling there is nothing like going to

the moon and there are a load of

challenges to overcome

first off mars is roughly 600 times

further away than the moon

the three-day trip to the moon is

nothing compared to the six-month

expedition

it takes to reach mars now one of the

main threats during the journey to mars

would be the harmful radiation from the

from the sun in the form of gamma rays

x-rays and uv light for example

on earth we’re protected from this by

two main things our magnetic field and

our atmosphere

but obviously out in the vacuum of space

neither of those things are there to

protect us

now it would be possible to protect

astronauts during the journey by placing

water tanks in the walls of the

spacecraft

which would which would absorb most of

this radiation but mars itself

has no magnetic field and its atmosphere

is very thin

about 100 times thinner than earth’s to

protect yourself from radiation on the

martian surface

you need to make sure your habitats are

either underground or under lots of

layers of dirt

the fact that mars is so far away means

that solar power is only about 40 as

effective as it is here

which is obviously impractical for

powering a settlement

this means that it’s likely that the

first few habitats will be fueled by

nuclear power

mars’s distance from earth also means

that a phone call would be

impossible it would take anywhere

between 3 and 22 minutes for someone on

mars to hear what someone on earth was

saying

it’s important to remember that when we

talk about astronomical distances

the speed of light is actually pretty

slow

i’ve already mentioned the thin

atmosphere and this also poses problems

when landing on mars

atmospheric drag is really important for

slowing spacecraft down before landing

but this effect on mars is a lot less

powerful so any attempt at landing on

the surface has to be thought through

carefully

this is why spacex for example are

considering a belly flop approach

which maximizes the effect of

atmospheric drag and slows the

spacecraft down as much as possible

before it engages retrorockets to slow

itself down even further

and ultimately land safely there’s also

the issue of growing food in space

as well as dealing with the low gravity

environment and its effects on the human

body

but scientists on the international

space station have been hard at work on

both of these issues

planters plants have been successfully

harvested and eaten by crew on the iss

and we continue to learn more every day

about how they behave in microgravity

there’s also research ongoing into

aquaponics which combines raising fish

and tanks

with growing plants in water without

soil and this will likely be the primary

way of feeding martian astronauts

the way humans react to spending

prolonged periods of time outside of

earth’s gravity

is still being understood but this month

marks 20 years of a continual human

presence in the space station

and we have learned a lot of lessons in

that time about how to keep humans safe

in space and it’s important to point out

these numerous challenges facing an

expedition to mars

because it’s easy to dream of

terraforming mars tomorrow and making it

a second home planet

whilst that won’t happen for a very long

time these challenges facing us now

are surmountable with more and more

people dedicating their lives to

tackling them

so what is the future of space

exploration well

it’s all of these projects and more

which are being taken on simultaneously

by more and more people every day whilst

it’s hard to predict which of these will

come to fruition first and foresee all

of the potential problems along the way

the fact that the space fever is growing

and more and more people are joining the

new space race

accelerates our progress even more it

creates a positive feedback loop

the more successes we have the more

attention the space sector generates

and the more inspiration there is for

the next generation

there are hundreds if not thousands of

youtube channels

podcasts documentaries books and movies

examining the future of space travel

and what challenges this new chapter in

human history will bring

every day more people are realizing that

the new space age

really has already begun now i’m sure

there are some of you who are still

skeptical about the realities of any of

these projects happening anytime soon

after all futurists are keen to jump

onto the bandwagon and get excitement

going

but in reality there are plenty of

unresolved issues standing between us

and these goals

and some still sound like they belong in

the realm of science fiction

but after watching videos such as

spacex’s successful test flight of the

falcon heavy

after seeing what a collective human

effort is capable of achieving in such a

short space of time

a spark of childlike awe ignites in me

for the first time in years

and i’m not the only one kids are being

inspired by recent missions to learn

about science

understand our place in the cosmos and

to dream big

there are people who spend their lives

working towards the dream of the future

in space

and because of their efforts that future

is approaching us at an ever greater

rate

the space revolution has already begun

and it will only accelerate as time goes

on

people will look back on this time as

the birth of a new era of humans in

space

be grateful for the opportunity to be

alive right now

the most exciting time in human history

as we dare to go

where no humans have gone before thank

you