How to design antifragile systems

[Music]

imagine

imagine a single candle placed outside

on a table in your garden

the air is still the candle is burning

steadily

then a breeze sweeps across your garden

and it extinguishes the flame

the candle has blown out

now imagine that candle has been re-lit

but this time

it’s placed inside a protective lantern

the breeze continues to sweep across the

garden but the flame

remains unaffected however

the flame doesn’t get any worse but

doesn’t get any better

finally imagine imagine you create

a fire pit in your garden you bring

together light

kindling and logs to start the fire

burning

then suddenly a little disruption

a little disorder the weather changes

the breeze turns into a gentle wind

the wind stokes the flames the flames

grow and spread

and suddenly suddenly the fire pit roars

into life

bringing light and warmth into your

garden

the candle was fragile

it was affected by the smallest

variances in the environment

when placed inside the lantern however

it was made robust it was unaffected

but it didn’t get any better

in contrast the fire pit is a

representation of what nasim taleb

calls anti-fragile in the case of the

fire pit

the flames responded to the

unpredictable disorder in the weather

the wind and the swirling leaves

accelerating and intensifying the flames

how can we be more like the fire pit

and less like the candle

anti-fragility is beyond robustness and

resilience

resilience the resilient re resists

stress

the anti-fragile gets better

all these elements that we traditionally

think as threats or risks

uncertainty volatility disruption

disorder stress

these are at the heart of fostering

anti-fragile systems

examples of these systems can be found

everywhere

take the classic case of reproductive

fitness the challenges and the disorder

in the ecosystem and the environment

force species to adapt to survive

how about our muscles when we go to the

gym

it tears but then grows stronger

what about our yearly flu jab our immune

systems react and respond

and grow stronger even as something as

simple as a recipe can benefit from a

little disruption

and a little change i take one of my

mum’s traditional recipes

classic example of fried rice which she

was horrified to find my stepdad adding

tabasco sauce to

i can assure you though after that

initial stress

we’re all pretty impressed by the end

result except perhaps my mother

when you peel back the surface you will

see that anti-fragility underpins many

of the things that grow

and evolve and change around us from a

simple idea

to technology advancement to our culture

to our society to political systems to

our revolutions

but why does this matter it matters

because disorder

disruption uncertainty these are the

realities of the world that we live in

today

that we cannot change if this was ever

in doubt

we’ve certainly seen it prove this year

the world is staring down one of the

most disruptive events

of living memory when a virus that

seemed like a blip

on the other side of the planet has

spread and disrupted the lives of almost

everyone on it

we’ve seen the loss of hundreds of

thousands of lives

we’ve seen employment and commerce take

a hit

leaving many in financial hardship

mental health has become a key concern

many plagued by loneliness and some

shackled with anxiety

the way we work the way we socialize the

way we define communities and societies

these have all been disrupted and

changed

do we have to ask ourselves the hard

questions to understand where we were

fragile

where our systems and societies were

fragile

to understand how we might need to adapt

to thrive into the future

did we learn from each other other

countries

our past our history did we have our

blinkers on for too long to some of our

major flaws and mistakes

did we create systems that were so

dependent on one another that as soon as

one collapsed so did the rest

we are entering an era that faces

profound challenges

in a world with increasing uncertainty

and volatility

this world is becoming increasingly

complex

if we want to do more than just survive

in these times if we want to thrive in

these times

we cannot simply extend on the old

business as usual

we need a new approach anti-fragility

gives us that hope by helping us

understand

and embracing and thriving from the

realities

around us because we cannot ignore

these realities of our world as much as

we might like to

as much as we might be hardwired to

but it’s something that can be unlearned

by choosing not to reject disorder

by choosing to embrace it we can not

only learn to live with it

we can learn to thrive on it

but where do we start where do we start

so we can create anti-fragile societies

and worlds and systems around us

it starts with us as individuals

fostering unlearning creating our own

anti-fragility

so i want to share with you just three

thoughts three strategies

that can help us build more

anti-friendly fragility into our lives

and ourselves

first don’t put all your eggs in one

basket

or in corporate terms diversify

the classic case from a business sense

is how you can

diversify your income sources the more

income

sources you have the less an individual

stressor

such as a change to one industry will

affect your overall position

this is true too for us in our careers

how can you create

different options different career

potential opportunities that you can

have

how do you diversify your skill sets

as they say a jack of all trades is a

master of none but if we limit

our skills too narrowly we might find it

challenging

to overcome a setback or unexpected job

loss

as industries respond further to the

events of 2020

the importance of diversification of

skill sets

have been brought into sharper focus

diversify two

avoid a house of cards situation with

modularity

we need to build modularity into our

lives keeping the elements of our lives

interconnected but integral within their

own right

this means that if we have to pivot if

we have to adjust

if we have to refocus one part of our

life

we can limit the impacts and the

consequences to that part

it’s like a game of jenga you want to be

able to pull out one block without the

entire

entire tower crashing down

recent studies have looked at

the phenomena of burnout the affliction

that leads many high-performing

individuals to break down from the

stress of their work

studies involving doctors suggest that

doctors who engage regularly in hobbies

outside their work are at lower risk of

this burnout

in this example when we can separate our

sense of self-worth

when we can separate our sense of

purpose of meaning

from our work we put less pressure

on that part of our life we put less

pressure

on our life going right in our workplace

so we can be more adaptable when

challenges are thrown at

us so how can you

create different sources of meaning of

purpose

of enjoyment and of happiness in your

life

how can you also create different

circles of friends different networks of

friends

how can you create parts of your lives

slightly separate that you can actually

experiment

iterate push boundaries on and start

to test and adapt modularity

third and finally don’t be afraid of

failure

but remember to reflect and learn from

it

fail fast fail forward so the saying

goes

just as we are hardwired to avoid

uncertainty and disorder

so too are we hardwired to avoid failure

it leads to shame it leads to denial

perhaps it even leads to attempts to

sweep our shortfalls under the rug

we often come to these types of talks to

hear about focusing on the positive

focusing on what’s working but in

reality

failure is not just inevitable it is one

of our best

learning opportunities the weakest links

in our lives are our best feedback loops

let’s take coffee as an example how many

of you

drink too much coffee in a day one at

six am

perhaps one at 10 am maybe the 3pm

slump and we have a third maybe a fourth

and when we get that caffeine high we

can be tempted to think that this

problem is solved but if you pause

dig a little deeper we can start to

realize that the real problem

the tiredness at the start of the day

that continues and continues

the real problem is due to a whole range

of other contributing factors in our

life

and actually that short-term fix of

caffeine might actually be exacerbating

the problem

so don’t forget to focus on failure

remember that great quote by thomas

edison as he tried and failed

over and over in his relentless efforts

to invent the light bulb

he said i have not failed

i have just found ten thousand ways that

won’t work

by focusing on these failures we can

start to learn

the parts of our lives that are more

fragile parts of that our lives

that we can adapt and iterate so ask

yourself those hard question

why did i make that decision

how did i feel what worked

what didn’t why

how did it affect other parts of my life

how did other

parts of my life affect it by reflecting

and learning

we are able to make sense of the

feedback loops around us and start to

understand how we can build

anti-fragility how we can build

adaptivity

how we can build agility into ourselves

and our lives

because ultimately that is the point of

anti-fragility

understanding making sense responding

and adapting to the world around us in a

way that allows us to thrive

it’s about challenging the natural

tendency to think that more resilience

more robustness more avoidance is the

answer

that building harder internal walls will

protect us from the elements

we come to these talks and we hear about

overcoming

uncertainty we hear about focusing on

what’s going well

focusing on the positive and with good

reason

too much stress too much uncertainty it

can tip us over the edge

but in a world where these are our

realities we put ourselves at a

disadvantage to ignore these truths

so maybe we need to change the dialogue

maybe we need to embrace uncertainty

maybe we need to invite some disruption

maybe we need to crave disorder

so that we can learn to flex that muscle

build that agility

become anti-fragile so we can learn to

thrive

into the future because

what happens if we can turn our

individual fears into something that we

can harness for positive change for our

society

we can transform that single candle

into a roaring fire pit that just burns

brighter

and brighter the more you throw at it

thank you