How to design antifragile systems
[Music]
imagine
imagine a single candle placed outside
on a table in your garden
the air is still the candle is burning
steadily
then a breeze sweeps across your garden
and it extinguishes the flame
the candle has blown out
now imagine that candle has been re-lit
but this time
it’s placed inside a protective lantern
the breeze continues to sweep across the
garden but the flame
remains unaffected however
the flame doesn’t get any worse but
doesn’t get any better
finally imagine imagine you create
a fire pit in your garden you bring
together light
kindling and logs to start the fire
burning
then suddenly a little disruption
a little disorder the weather changes
the breeze turns into a gentle wind
the wind stokes the flames the flames
grow and spread
and suddenly suddenly the fire pit roars
into life
bringing light and warmth into your
garden
the candle was fragile
it was affected by the smallest
variances in the environment
when placed inside the lantern however
it was made robust it was unaffected
but it didn’t get any better
in contrast the fire pit is a
representation of what nasim taleb
calls anti-fragile in the case of the
fire pit
the flames responded to the
unpredictable disorder in the weather
the wind and the swirling leaves
accelerating and intensifying the flames
how can we be more like the fire pit
and less like the candle
anti-fragility is beyond robustness and
resilience
resilience the resilient re resists
stress
the anti-fragile gets better
all these elements that we traditionally
think as threats or risks
uncertainty volatility disruption
disorder stress
these are at the heart of fostering
anti-fragile systems
examples of these systems can be found
everywhere
take the classic case of reproductive
fitness the challenges and the disorder
in the ecosystem and the environment
force species to adapt to survive
how about our muscles when we go to the
gym
it tears but then grows stronger
what about our yearly flu jab our immune
systems react and respond
and grow stronger even as something as
simple as a recipe can benefit from a
little disruption
and a little change i take one of my
mum’s traditional recipes
classic example of fried rice which she
was horrified to find my stepdad adding
tabasco sauce to
i can assure you though after that
initial stress
we’re all pretty impressed by the end
result except perhaps my mother
when you peel back the surface you will
see that anti-fragility underpins many
of the things that grow
and evolve and change around us from a
simple idea
to technology advancement to our culture
to our society to political systems to
our revolutions
but why does this matter it matters
because disorder
disruption uncertainty these are the
realities of the world that we live in
today
that we cannot change if this was ever
in doubt
we’ve certainly seen it prove this year
the world is staring down one of the
most disruptive events
of living memory when a virus that
seemed like a blip
on the other side of the planet has
spread and disrupted the lives of almost
everyone on it
we’ve seen the loss of hundreds of
thousands of lives
we’ve seen employment and commerce take
a hit
leaving many in financial hardship
mental health has become a key concern
many plagued by loneliness and some
shackled with anxiety
the way we work the way we socialize the
way we define communities and societies
these have all been disrupted and
changed
do we have to ask ourselves the hard
questions to understand where we were
fragile
where our systems and societies were
fragile
to understand how we might need to adapt
to thrive into the future
did we learn from each other other
countries
our past our history did we have our
blinkers on for too long to some of our
major flaws and mistakes
did we create systems that were so
dependent on one another that as soon as
one collapsed so did the rest
we are entering an era that faces
profound challenges
in a world with increasing uncertainty
and volatility
this world is becoming increasingly
complex
if we want to do more than just survive
in these times if we want to thrive in
these times
we cannot simply extend on the old
business as usual
we need a new approach anti-fragility
gives us that hope by helping us
understand
and embracing and thriving from the
realities
around us because we cannot ignore
these realities of our world as much as
we might like to
as much as we might be hardwired to
but it’s something that can be unlearned
by choosing not to reject disorder
by choosing to embrace it we can not
only learn to live with it
we can learn to thrive on it
but where do we start where do we start
so we can create anti-fragile societies
and worlds and systems around us
it starts with us as individuals
fostering unlearning creating our own
anti-fragility
so i want to share with you just three
thoughts three strategies
that can help us build more
anti-friendly fragility into our lives
and ourselves
first don’t put all your eggs in one
basket
or in corporate terms diversify
the classic case from a business sense
is how you can
diversify your income sources the more
income
sources you have the less an individual
stressor
such as a change to one industry will
affect your overall position
this is true too for us in our careers
how can you create
different options different career
potential opportunities that you can
have
how do you diversify your skill sets
as they say a jack of all trades is a
master of none but if we limit
our skills too narrowly we might find it
challenging
to overcome a setback or unexpected job
loss
as industries respond further to the
events of 2020
the importance of diversification of
skill sets
have been brought into sharper focus
diversify two
avoid a house of cards situation with
modularity
we need to build modularity into our
lives keeping the elements of our lives
interconnected but integral within their
own right
this means that if we have to pivot if
we have to adjust
if we have to refocus one part of our
life
we can limit the impacts and the
consequences to that part
it’s like a game of jenga you want to be
able to pull out one block without the
entire
entire tower crashing down
recent studies have looked at
the phenomena of burnout the affliction
that leads many high-performing
individuals to break down from the
stress of their work
studies involving doctors suggest that
doctors who engage regularly in hobbies
outside their work are at lower risk of
this burnout
in this example when we can separate our
sense of self-worth
when we can separate our sense of
purpose of meaning
from our work we put less pressure
on that part of our life we put less
pressure
on our life going right in our workplace
so we can be more adaptable when
challenges are thrown at
us so how can you
create different sources of meaning of
purpose
of enjoyment and of happiness in your
life
how can you also create different
circles of friends different networks of
friends
how can you create parts of your lives
slightly separate that you can actually
experiment
iterate push boundaries on and start
to test and adapt modularity
third and finally don’t be afraid of
failure
but remember to reflect and learn from
it
fail fast fail forward so the saying
goes
just as we are hardwired to avoid
uncertainty and disorder
so too are we hardwired to avoid failure
it leads to shame it leads to denial
perhaps it even leads to attempts to
sweep our shortfalls under the rug
we often come to these types of talks to
hear about focusing on the positive
focusing on what’s working but in
reality
failure is not just inevitable it is one
of our best
learning opportunities the weakest links
in our lives are our best feedback loops
let’s take coffee as an example how many
of you
drink too much coffee in a day one at
six am
perhaps one at 10 am maybe the 3pm
slump and we have a third maybe a fourth
and when we get that caffeine high we
can be tempted to think that this
problem is solved but if you pause
dig a little deeper we can start to
realize that the real problem
the tiredness at the start of the day
that continues and continues
the real problem is due to a whole range
of other contributing factors in our
life
and actually that short-term fix of
caffeine might actually be exacerbating
the problem
so don’t forget to focus on failure
remember that great quote by thomas
edison as he tried and failed
over and over in his relentless efforts
to invent the light bulb
he said i have not failed
i have just found ten thousand ways that
won’t work
by focusing on these failures we can
start to learn
the parts of our lives that are more
fragile parts of that our lives
that we can adapt and iterate so ask
yourself those hard question
why did i make that decision
how did i feel what worked
what didn’t why
how did it affect other parts of my life
how did other
parts of my life affect it by reflecting
and learning
we are able to make sense of the
feedback loops around us and start to
understand how we can build
anti-fragility how we can build
adaptivity
how we can build agility into ourselves
and our lives
because ultimately that is the point of
anti-fragility
understanding making sense responding
and adapting to the world around us in a
way that allows us to thrive
it’s about challenging the natural
tendency to think that more resilience
more robustness more avoidance is the
answer
that building harder internal walls will
protect us from the elements
we come to these talks and we hear about
overcoming
uncertainty we hear about focusing on
what’s going well
focusing on the positive and with good
reason
too much stress too much uncertainty it
can tip us over the edge
but in a world where these are our
realities we put ourselves at a
disadvantage to ignore these truths
so maybe we need to change the dialogue
maybe we need to embrace uncertainty
maybe we need to invite some disruption
maybe we need to crave disorder
so that we can learn to flex that muscle
build that agility
become anti-fragile so we can learn to
thrive
into the future because
what happens if we can turn our
individual fears into something that we
can harness for positive change for our
society
we can transform that single candle
into a roaring fire pit that just burns
brighter
and brighter the more you throw at it
thank you