Do Not Trust Your Brain Innate Biases are the Bane of our Existence

[Music]

i’m terrified of having children

not because they smell or that they

scream for no reason

but seriously kudos to all the parents

out there because wow

and not because i would be a terrible

parent despite what some of my alleged

friends might have to say

but because i’m actually very concerned

about bringing them into this planet

that is becoming increasingly

uncomfortable and dangerous to inhabit

one of my biggest fears is having my

child 20 years from now

maybe even sooner look me in the eyes

and say

mom you knew it was going to be like

this we must make decisions today that

offset that question from

ever being asked i would be so much more

confident about our future

if the decisions we were making were

entrenched in science

in facts but they’re really not

and when they’re not precious resources

are misspent

time money productivity are lost

so if not data what are decision inputs

i have dedicated my career to

understanding

what factors influence our perceptions

of risks

and how those risks trump reality in

terms of our decision-making and

behavioral outcomes

it turns out we are not rational

attributers of risk

which then means we are not rational

decision makers

let’s try this for example to help me

convince you

what do you think is more likely to kill

you a shark attack

or falling airplane parts if you’re like

most people who answer this poll

you’re likely to say a shark attack it’s

more sensational

easier to recall even though falling

airplane parts are 30 times

more likely to kill you so what’s going

on here

we clearly aren’t judging wrist

accurately

since the dawn of our species our brains

have been designed

to confront and react in certain ways to

the risks around us

we are designed to overreact to risks

that are novel

unfamiliar and have the potential for

catastrophic consequences

and honestly that’s worked out well for

us for the most part

our ancestors would see a poisonous

snake and immediately jump start the

response system

to hopefully run away there were cues in

the environment

that would help their brains scan and

process the

risk for example what is the color of

the snake

what’s its position and stance are there

other animals around

most of this processing and subsequent

decision making was subliminal

and automated that’s her relief can you

imagine

if our ancestors needed to take the time

to really process the risk

the snake would have won and we likely

wouldn’t be here today

the risks we face now are starkly

different from those of our ancestors

but the way our brains are wired are not

we find ourselves in a complex

interconnected

risk landscape and even though we have

more time to make decisions about the

risk we face

we still tend to make snap judgments

none of us are immune to this

not even those of us who study it we

systematically overestimate

risks that aren’t that serious like

vaccinating our children

or eating non-organic foods and we

systematically underestimate risks that

are

serious like the potential for a disease

outbreak to ground our lives to

screeching halt

we think to ourselves it won’t happen to

us

we’re programmed to be overconfident

we’re programmed

to ignore serious seemingly far away and

slow moving risks

like rising sea levels this is how our

brain wiring dictates our

perceptions we are influenced by

triggers such as whether or not we can

see the risk

or whether or not we trust the person

communicating about the risk

to us even robust findings from the

field of sociology show us how our

political identities

can influence our perceptions of risk

for example those who identify as

conservatives in america

are more likely to perceive lower risk

of covid19

and police brutality as compared to

those who identify as progressives

additionally well-established triggers

in the field of risk perception a

sampling of which you can see here

include factors such as how voluntary is

the risk

how sensational is it remember those

shark attacks

there is a reason we are wired to make

snap judgments based on seemingly

unrelated context cues

it is a human evolutionary trait

designed to help us avoid

cognitive dissonance or that

uncomfortable feeling we get

when we are confronted with information

that might be contradictory

to our entrenched beliefs which may be

integral

to our identity to our tribe

the visceral need to belong to a tribe

is intrinsically human

from our early ancestors who needed to

belong to a group for their very

survival

to modern day just look at an

increasingly polarized america

where we see people on both sides of the

spectrum digging in their heels on a

host of issues

just to stay true to their political

tribal identity

even issues historically and generally

free from politicalization

like infectious disease are not immune

no pun intended there

as science is becoming increasingly

politicized i am definitely

on the front lines of experiencing it i

have network producers scratching their

heads

trying to figure out how to label me am

i a liberal scientist

or a conservative scientist can i just

be a scientist

apparently not it’s not how we’re wired

when i’m in the media and i’m presenting

on climate science

i have the extreme right calling me a

kool-aid drinking

al gore kool-aid drinking liberal and

when i’m presenting on

evidence that might contradict severe

social distancing measures

now i’m a trump supporter i clearly

can’t win

but if i have to choose an identity in

this time of politicized science

let it be radical centrist and that i

value facts above

all else it’s a lonely position to

occupy but that’s a whole nother ted

talk

i’m not complaining i have chosen to be

an unapologetic communicator

of the science of the facts and i thrive

in it

i know that the interpretation and

reception of my messages

will be based on those innate biases

and i also know that correcting for

existing erroneous beliefs

will require us to first admit and

accept that we are being subliminally

influenced

by cognitive triggers that are beyond

our control

but we can regain control of our

decisions first we need to recognize

what fuels our perceptions is it our

political identity

is it the ease of recall is it trust in

the communicator

we need to see what feeds our fears

question our initial judgments

and ultimately question whether or not

we are overreacting to the base rate

statistics of a particular risk

just look and see how wrong we get it

actual risk

versus the perception of risk are rarely

aligned

from those we overestimate like plane

crashes to those we underestimate like

radon gas

these are cognitive shortcomings but we

know this now

and we can do the due diligence and we

can do the research

to recognize that we need to get a grasp

on reality

and ultimately to become better aligned

to the facts

this is step one of what you can do at

an individual level

to help address the looming challenges

ahead for us challenges that will

require us to make tough decisions

entrenched in science not in ideology

you too beca can become radical in your

commitment to the facts

to the science and then you can think

about challenging your family

your friends and your communities to

also follow suit

you will inevitably get pushback i

certainly do

early on in my media career i was

interviewed by bill o’reilly

yes that bill o’reilly on whether a

recent national climate assessment

report

that had just come out was bogus or not

i spoke the facts as true now as they

were then

and the abuse i received then and now

i was called a mouthpiece for evil i was

told to go back to my home country

you know the foreign state of new jersey

i’m not gonna lie i actually got a kick

out of it i thought to myself

this must be what a kardashian feels

like but seriously

making waves and getting reactions means

that people are listening

they’re lashing out because of the

cognitive dissonance that they feel

that’s normal we’re potentially

challenging entrenched

beliefs and even people’s identities

we need to have compassion for others we

need to find common ground

and we need to consistently reach out

there’s no alternative

inaction is costing us precious time

from veering off a path

that is taking us to a global

temperature point that we will not be

able to withstand

we are currently on target to reach it

by 2050.

sure we’ve heard this before there’s

approximately a decade left

to turn the tide on a warming planet

this may sound inflammatory to some of

you

but my friends as the planet heats up

and as the global human population

increases we can anticipate

increased habitat encroachment and

destruction

which means increased engagement with

exotic wild animals

that we haven’t historically engaged

with bats

porcupines snakes for food for trade

all of this increases the likelihood of

disease

to emerge and remember covin 19 is a

mild disease by virology standards

there is potential for far more lethal

disease to emerge

and we’ve seen from covet 19 just how

disruptive even a mild virus can be

increasing emerging and infectious

diseases alongside more

frequent and intense hurricanes droughts

wildfires tornadoes

can be overwhelming can make some of us

feel like

we shouldn’t be procreating so let’s

have compassion for those who fear for

the next generation

and their perceived role in that future

suffering like me

let’s also recognize that it’s just a

perception

and now we know the limits to our

perceptions we have the human ingenuity

to overcome the challenges we face and

to regain control of our perceptions

let’s confront our brains let’s tease

out our innate biases

and let’s better align to the science to

the data

for better faster more evidence-based

decisions

for our families communities and our

very existence

i do want children i want to be able to

see my kids play outside

without time limits because of dangerous

heat we can have that future

a future where we are not just surviving

but thriving

a planet that is cleaner more efficient

more equitable

it can be a reality but we need to start

by making better decisions

now