Modern cavemen the Coming World Transformation

[Music]

i have a confession to make

the organizer of this ted event asked me

to come up here and shed some light

on what to expect from the coming

millennium but the truth is

i failed the truth is i failed before i

even begun

they probably thought that if they bring

a phd in physics who is also a tech

entrepreneur he should know something

but the opposite is true and i’m not

talking about what to expect from the

year

2563 no i’m talking about what to expect

from the lives of our own generation and

that of our kids

now to explain why i failed i’d like to

take you on a journey

to the far history of mankind

imagine yourself in a cave in a big

dark cave and as you stand there in the

cave glazing through the darkness

all of a sudden you see someone right in

front of you this someone

is a caveman the next thing you’re going

to do is take your phone and show it to

him

because you want to show him what

marvelous things this amazing device can

do

how do you think he would react the

caveman

i’ll tell you he would not find it

marvelous

in fact i believe he’s going to feel

something far stronger

he’s going to feel his legs trembling

his heart beating faster and adrenaline

pumping rapidly through his veins

because this caveman is now scared

of your phone he’s terrified now why is

that

it is surely not because his brain is

not developed enough

no it’s not it’s because what you just

showed him your phone

is nothing but nothing like anything he

ever saw

and more importantly it’s nothing he

could even

imagine or predict now i want you to

record i was asked to come up here on

this stage

and shed some light on what to expect

from the coming millennium

right but the truth is i don’t believe i

can i don’t believe

anyone can because these days we’re

developing a technology

that is likely to change the face of

humankind

in an unforeseeable way that’s right

we’re developing a technology called

quantum computing

which could change the world so much

that asking me

or anyone else to predict the future is

meant to fail

just like the caveman could have not

predicted

the reality that we live in today that

are phones aircrafts the internet

computers no matter how visionary he was

he’s a caveman right

now just to make it crystal clear

between us right

in this analogy you guys each and every

one of you are the caveman

and so am i now you may be telling

yourself oh well he’s talking about some

evolution

that will take some 50 000 years not not

my concern

but it is your concern because i’m not

talking about an evolution i’m talking

about a revolution

and this revolution is either going to

happen in your lifetime

or in your children’s now i know

i’ve made some very bold statements and

it’s only been a few minutes into this

ted talk

but if you bear with me i will explain

to you exactly

why i am so confident saying those

things

and i do believe you should know you

ought to know

now to explain let’s get back to your

phone your phone has a huge memory

made out of about 10 billion transistors

now raise your hand if you ever got a

new phone thinking ah

this time the memory is more than enough

for me and just a few months later

started find yourself scrolling up and

down looking for pictures and apps you

can get rid of

because there is no more memory right

and believe it or not

your phone today has more than a million

times the transistors we had on the

apollo 11

when it was sent to the moon about 50

years ago

yes computers have evolved incredibly

in the last few decades being the by far

leading factor

for technological progress of mankind

we’ve come a long way but the question

is

can we get more can we get much more

and the answer is yes we can with

quantum computers

here’s an example let’s say i had today

a quantum computer with just

300 transistors i’m sure you’ll all

agree with me the 300

is far far less than the 10 billion you

have on your phone

right now right the question is

could i be storing a decent amount of

pictures on that phone

on that quantum computer the answer is

yes

here’s a surprise for you i could store

on that phone

on that quantum computer more pictures

than you can store on your phone today

even if your phone had not 10 billion

transistors but

hear me well more transistors than the

number of atoms in the universe

i repeat a quantum computer with just

300 transistors

could store more data than a normal

computer

even if it had more transistors than the

number

of atoms in the universe

now this is of course immense

and you’re right to think that there

must be something fundamentally

different about it

that makes it so potentially powerful

and i want to explain that to you

because i think you should understand it

i want to explain the difference between

quantum computers and cloud and normal

computers

through a very simple analogy the

analogy to the difference between

multiplication of numbers and addition

of numbers this is primary school

material

too easy for you how many of you ever

wanted to pick up a six pack of mineral

water

i’m sure most of you and i’m sure you

succeeded with great teas how many of

you ever wanted to

say pick up a sofa and move it from one

room to the next

right i’m sure many of you as well and

i’m sure you succeeded

but not without a friend’s help because

for that you need two people

how many of you ever had your car broken

down and had to

move it around in that case i’m pretty

sure you did not move it around

manually by hand because you would need

some 45

strong men to lift up the car okay i’m

not talking about lifting

up it up slightly above the floor i’m

talking about lifting it up

moving around okay now the thing is the

thing is

the average man can strong it can can

lift up about 40 kilograms

okay so if i need to lift up something

and i need help

then for every man joining me i add

this is addition of numbers i add 40

kilograms so someone joins

plus 40 someone joins plus 40 plus 40

and so on and so forth

but now let’s imagine something

different let’s imagine

that for every man joining me i don’t

add 40 but

i double my lifting capacity

let’s think about it it’s a good it’s an

interesting example

let’s think about the scenario for the

six-pack of mineral water

it’s the same it’s easy you just pick it

up no problem

for the sofa you pick it up as well with

one

with one additional person two people

pick it up no problem

what about the car here’s a surprise

in this scenario in order to lift up the

car you would need only six people

six people lift up the car and as the

seventh man joins you

you can now lift up two cars because it

doubled six people

one car seven people two cars it doubles

and with 83 people only

you would be able to lift up the entire

listen carefully earth the entire earth

putting gravity aside for a moment

okay now this is an interesting example

i want you to think about it

because i did not describe to you a

scenario in which

it would be easier to lift up the earth

you would need last people

no i described a scenario in which you

would take the

impossible task of lifting up the earth

and make it possible

it’s a big difference now the bad news

for you guys

is that most things you use on a daily

basis work like the addition of numbers

your phone for example works that way

too okay if you have a phone with 10

billion transistors and now you want to

store

twice the pictures you need 20 billion

transistors

okay so why don’t you get another phone

you have two phones right but it’s not

it’s not so cool what if

we could build computers that

with every transistor added

the capacity doubled like the

multiplication example

we just had we can quantum computers

in quantum computers with every

transistor added

the capacity doubles therefore growing

the power at an incredible pace

this is why for example with a

full-scale quantum computer

i could crack pretty much any encryption

protocol

on the internet bank computers

government computers your phone your

facebook account

within minutes this is well established

this is something that would take the

biggest computer we now have on earth

hundreds of thousands of years and this

is another good example

because this is taking something that

would take hundreds of thousands of

years

running in minutes impossible to

possible

and you may be asking yourself what is

what’s the magic

why does it work that way but if you

think about it for a moment

even the computers we have today seem

like magic right they seem weird i mean

just the thought of a wireless keyboard

sending letters through the

air to a computer that then displays

them on a screen

right it’s magic it’s weird but as weird

as it is

it can be explained by the simplest laws

of nature

as we know them since the 19th century

such as electricity and magnetism

but quantum computers are fundamentally

different they are based on different

laws of nature the laws of quantum

mechanics and if you thought sending

letters through the air is weird then

guys you should hold on tight

because in in the quantum world which is

our world by the way

everything you know breaks in the

quantum world for example things can be

in multiple places

at the same time an object

far apart galaxies away can affect one

another

instantaneously sounds like science

fiction

well i surely agree but since i’m a geek

i’ve been dedicating my my entire

adulthood until this very day

to making this a reality and i’m not

alone

governments funds and corporates all

over the world

are investing billions of dollars to the

race

to being among the first ones to put

their hands

on this incredible technology now

don’t get me wrong building quantum

computers is

not going to be a walk in the park in

fact

it’s probably one of the biggest

challenges that

our biggest brains are working on these

days

moreover there are even open questions

and serious doubts

even by experts will it take three years

or

30 but rest assured

we’re on it quantum computers are coming

and there is no way back

now with this confidence that i’m

displaying here

how come i said in the beginning that i

failed in the test given to me by the

organizers

to shed some light on what to expect

from the coming millennium right

because i could be standing up here on

this stage and saying that

for example quantum computers could

allow us to develop

vaccines and drugs for pandemics in

matter of days

many believe so that they could allow us

to develop

um new cheap sources of energy to fuel

the entire planet

many believe so that quantum computers

could allow us to develop

artificial intelligence that would place

our own perception of what human is

to question but i’m not doing that

because

if i did so it means i did not

comprehend

the potential power of these machines

because

you see the potential of these machines

is unpredictable just like the caveman

could have

not foreseen the future that we live in

that of computers phones aircrafts in

the internet we cannot

predict the future of quantum you see

because all of these examples that i

just gave you

if you close your eyes for just a moment

you could imagine

you could predict but the future of

quantum is not a predictable one

now as we progress towards an

unpredictable future

i believe that our duty above all is to

reflect

how do we prepare

how do we prepare and with this talk

i’d like to encourage you to think to

think deeply about that

because as we go towards an expedition

to an unknown land

we do not equip ourselves with specific

tools but rather we work on our mindset

we prepare to be flexible to think out

of the box

now i’m not sure about you guys as for

me i’m going to be spending my days

teaching that my own kids i hope you too

thank you

you