Elon Musk Caltech Commencement Speech Big English Subtitles HD

I’d like to thank you for leaving crazy

person out of the description so I

thought I try to think what is the most

useful thing that I could what could I

say that could actually helpful or

useful to you in the future and I

thought perhaps tell the story of how I

sort of came to be here how did some of

these things happen and and maybe

there’s some lessons there because I

often find myself wondering how did this

happen

so when I was young I I I didn’t really

know what I was going to do we’re not

when I got older people kept asking me

and and but but then eventually I

thought the idea of inventing things

would be would be really cool and the

reason I thought that was because I read

a quote from Earthsea clock which said

that a sufficiently advanced technology

is indistinguishable from magic

and and that’s really true if you think

if you go back say 300 years the things

that we take for granted today would be

you’d be burned at the stake for you

know being able to fly that’s crazy

being able to see over long distances

being able to communicate having

effectively with with the internet a a

group mind of sorts and having access to

all the world’s information instantly

from almost anywhere in the earth this

is this is stuff that that really would

be magic it would be considered magic in

times past in fact I think it actually

goes beyond that because there are many

things that we take for granted today

that weren’t even imagined in times past

they weren’t even in the realm of magic

so that it actually goes goes beyond

that so I thought well you know if if I

can do some of those things basically if

I can advanced technology then that

that’s like magic and I would be really

cool and the the I also had sort of a

slight existential crisis because I was

trying to figure out what does it all

mean like what’s the purpose of things

and I came to the conclusion that if we

can advance the

there’s the knowledge of the world if we

can do things that expand the scope and

and scale of consciousness then we’re

better able to ask the right questions

and become more enlightened and and

that’s really the only way forward so so

it’s oh I studied physics and business

because I figured in order to do a lot

of these things you need to know how the

universe works and you need to know how

how the economy works and you also need

built bringing a lot of people together

to work with you to create something

because it’s very difficult to do

something as as an individual if it’s if

it’s a significant technology so I

originally came out to to California to

try to figure out how to improve the

energy density of electric vehicles

basically to try to figure out if there

was an advanced capacitor that could

serve as an alternative to batteries and

that was in 95 and that’s also when the

internet started to happen and and that

III thought well I can either pursue

this tech this technology where success

maybe may not be one of the possible

outcomes which is always tricky or

participate in the internet and and be

part of it so I decided to drop out and

obviously you unfortunately we’re past

graduation so I can’t be accused of

recommending that to you and so did some

internet stuff you know there’s been a

few things here and there what one of

which was PayPal and and maybe it’s

helpful to say one of the things that

was important than in the creation of

PayPal was which was kind of how it

started because initially the initial I

thought was with PayPal was to create an

agglomeration of financial services so

if you have one place where all your

financial services needs would be

seamlessly integrated

and and work smoothly and then we have

like a little feature which was to do

email payments and whenever we’d show

that show the system off to someone

would show the hard part which was the

the agglomeration of financial services

which was quite difficult to put

together nobody was interested then we’d

show people email payments which was

actually quite easy and everybody was

interested so this is a I think it’s

important to take feedback from your

environment no it’s it you want to be as

closed-loop as possible and so we focus

on email payments and really try to make

that work and and that’s what really got

things to take off but if we hadn’t if

we hadn’t responded to what people said

then we probably would not have been

successful so it’s important to look for

things like that and and focus on them

when when you when you see them and

you’re correct yeah your your prior

assumptions and then the going from

PayPal I thought well what are some of

the the other problems that are likely

to most affect the future of humanity

it really wasn’t from the perspective of

what what’s the rank or did best way to

to make money which which is which is

okay but it was really what I think is

going to most affect the future humanity

so the I think the biggest terrestrial

problem we’ve got is sustainable energy

but the production and consumption of

energy in a sustainable manner if we

don’t solve that this the century is the

century we’re we’re in deep trouble and

then the other one being the extension

of life beyond Earth to make life

multiplanetary so that’s that that’s

that’s the basis for that the latter is

the basis force for SpaceX and the

former is the basis for Tesla and

SolarCity and when I started SpaceX I

actually initially I thought that well

is there’s no way one could possibly

start a rocket company I wasn’t that

crazy

but but then I thought well what is a

way to increase NASA’s budget that was

actually my initial goal so I thought

well if we can do a low-cost mission to

Mars so we called Mars oasis which would

land seeds with with dehydrate would

receive some dehydrated nutrient gel and

you hydrate them upon landing and then

you’d have this great sort of money shot

of green plants on a red background and

the yeah the public tends to respond to

presidents and superlatives and this

would be the first life on Mars the

farthest that life’s ever traveled as

far as we know and and I thought well

that that would get people really

excited and and and therefore increase

that NASA’s budget so so obviously the

financial outcome from such a mission

would probably be zero so anything

better than that was on the upside and

so I actually went to I went to Russia

three times to look at buying a

refurbished ICBM because that was the

best deal and I can tell you it was very

weird going there in 2000 late 2001 2002

going to the Russian rocket forces and

saying I’d like to buy two of your

biggest rockets but you can keep the

nuke that’s a lot more and that was 10

years ago I guess so

they they I think they they thought I

was crazy but but I did have money so

that was that was okay and after making

several trips to to Russia

I came conclusion that that actually my

initial impression was was wrong about

because my initial thought was well that

that there’s not enough will to explore

it and expand beyond Earth and have a

Mars base and that kind of thing but I

can’t cushion that that that was wrong

in fact there’s plenty of will

particularly in the United States

because the United States is a nation of

explorers of people

here from from other parts of the world

and I think the United States really a

just distillation of the spirit of human

exploration so but if people think it’s

impossible then or it’s gonna completely

break the federal budget then they’re

not going to do it so after my third

trip I said okay well what we really

need to do here is try to solve the

space transport problem and and started

SpaceX and this was against the advice

of pretty much everyone I talked to what

one friend made me sit down and watch a

bunch of videos of rockets blowing up

let me tell you he wasn’t far wrong

it was it was tough going there in the

beginning because I’d never built

anything physical I mean I’d both like

little model rockets as a kid and that

kind of thing but I never had a company

that built in any physical so I figure

out how to how to do all these things

and and bring together the right team of

people and and and so we we did all that

and and then failed three times it was

tough

tough going because thinking about a

rocket is that the passing grade is a

hundred percent and you don’t get to

actually test the rocket in the real

environment that is going to be in so I

think so the best analogy for for rocket

engineering is it’s like if you want to

create a really complicated but a

software you can’t run the software as

an integrated whole and you can’t run it

on the computer it’s intended to run on

but the first time you put it all

together and write it on that computer

it must run with no bugs that’s that’s

basically the essence of it so we missed

the mark there that the first launch I

was picking up bits of rocket near the

launch site was but sad and but we

learned with with each successive flight

and and were able to with eventually

with the fourth flight in 2008 reach

orbit and that was also with the last

bit of money that we had

so they thank goodness that that

happened I think the sayings fourth

time’s the charm so that’s we got the

Falcon one to orbit and then began to

scale that up to two the Falcon nine

which is about an order of magnitude

more thrust it’s around a million pounds

of thrust and we managed to get that to

orbit and then developed Dragon

spacecraft which recently it was able to

dock and return to Earth from the space

station that was

Thanks I was a white-knuckled event so

yeah it’s a huge relief

slow can’t quite believe it actually

happened but there’s a lot more that

must have him beyond this in order for

Humanity to become a spacefaring

civilization ultimately a multi-planet

species and that’s something I think

it’s it’s it’s vitally important and and

I hope that that some of you will

participate in in that either at SpaceX

or at other companies because it’s just

really one of the most important things

for the preservation and extension of

consciousness I mean it’s worth noting

as I’m sure people are aware that the

earth has been around for four billion

years and civilization at least in terms

of having writing has been around for

ten thousand years

and that’s being generous so it’s it’s

really it’s sort of a tenuous existence

that that’s a civilization and and

consciousness as we know it has has been

on earth and I think I’m actually I’m

actually fairly optimistic about the

future of Earth so I don’t want to I

don’t want to sort of people to have the

wrong impression that I think we’re all

about to die I think I think well I

think things will most likely be okay

for a look for a long time on earth but

not not for sure but most likely but but

even if it’s if it’s sort of 99% likely

one a 1% chance it’s still it’s still

worth spending a fair bit of effort to

ensure that we have we’ve backed up the

biosphere in a planetary redundancy if

you will and so I think I think it’s

really really quite important and in

order to that there’s a breakthrough

that needs to occur which is to create a

rapidly and completely reusable

transport system to Mars which which is

one of those things that’s right on the

borderline of of impossible but that

that’s sort of the the thing that we’re

we’re going to try to achieve that with

with with SpaceX

and then on the on the on a Tesla front

the goal with Tesla was really to try to

show that what electric cars can do

because people had the wrong impression

we had to change people’s perception of

an electric vehicle because they used to

think of it as something that was slow

and ugly and had low range can like a

golf cart and so that’s why we created

the Tesla Roadster to show that you can

be fast attractive and and long-range

and it’s amazing how even though you can

show that something works on paper and

you know and the calculations are very

clear until you actually have the

physical object and they can they can

drive it it doesn’t really sink in for

people and so that that I think is is

something worth learning if you’re going

to create a company the first thing you

should try to do is create a working

prototype

you know everything everything looks

great on PowerPoint you can make

anything work on PowerPoint but if you

have a if you have an actual

demonstration article even if it’s in

primitive form that’s much much more

effective for convincing people so so we

made the Tesla Roadster and now we’re

coming out soon with the Model S which

is a four-door sedan because after we

made the Tesla Roadster people said oh

sure sure we always knew you could make

a car like that it’s an expensive car

and it’s low volume and it’s small and

all that but you couldn’t make a real

car like okay fine you got to make that

too so that that’s coming out soon and

yeah so that that’s that that’s that’s

the I think the the word where things

are and and and hopefully that there are

some lessons to be to be drawn there but

I think the overarching point I want to

make is that you guys are the magicians

of the 21st century you know don’t like

anything hold you back imagination is

the limit and go out there and create

some magic thank you

you

我要感谢你把疯狂的

人排除在描述之外,所以我

想我试着想想什么是

我能说的最有用的东西,我能

说什么对你将来真正有用或

有用,我

想也许 讲述我是

如何来到这里的

当我长大的时候,我们不是一直问我

,但是后来我

认为发明东西的想法

会非常酷,

我认为这是因为我读

了地球海时钟的一句话

说足够先进的技术

与魔法没有区别,

如果你

认为如果你回到 300 年前

,我们今天认为理所当然的事情就是

你会被烧死在火刑柱上,因为你

知道能够 o fly that’s crazy

能够远距离观察

能够与互联网进行有效沟通 具有

某种

集体意识,并且

可以从地球上几乎任何地方立即访问世界上的所有信息

这就是真正的东西

是魔法在过去它会被认为是魔法

事实上我认为它实际上

超出了这一点因为有很多

我们今天认为理所当然的事情

在过去甚至没有想象过

他们甚至不在魔法领域

所以 它实际上超出了

这一点,所以我想你知道如果我

能做一些这些事情,如果

我能先进技术,

那就像魔法一样,我会

很酷,而且我也

有点存在主义 危机,因为我

试图弄清楚这一切

意味着什么,比如事情的目的是什么

,我得出的结论是,如果我们

能够

推进世界的知识,如果我们

能 n 做一些扩大

意识范围和规模的事情,然后我们就能

更好地提出正确的问题

,变得更加开明,

这确实是唯一的前进方向,

所以哦,我学习了物理和商业,

因为我想为了 做

很多这样的事情,你需要知道宇宙是如何

运作的,你需要知道

经济是如何运作的,你还需要

建立将很多人聚集

在一起与你一起创造一些东西,

因为做某事是非常困难

的 作为个人,如果

它是一项重要的技术,所以我

最初来到加利福尼亚,试图弄清楚如何

提高电动汽车的能量密度,

基本上是想弄清楚是否

有一种先进的电容器可以

作为替代品 到电池,

那是在 95 年,那也是

互联网开始出现的时候,而

III 认为我可以追求

这种技术,这种技术

可能会成功

不是总是很棘手的可能结果之一,或者

参与互联网并成为其中的

一部分,所以我决定退学,

显然你很遗憾我们已经

毕业了,所以我不能被指责

向你推荐这个 一些

互联网的东西也是如此,你知道

这里和那里有一些东西,

其中之一是 PayPal,也许

说一件事

比创建 PayPal 更重要的

是它是如何

开始的,因为 最初,我

认为使用 PayPal 是为了创建一个

金融服务集聚区,所以

如果您有一个地方可以无缝集成您的所有

金融服务需求

并且可以顺利运行,那么我们就有

一个小功能,那就是进行

电子邮件支付 每当我们

向某人展示该系统时,

都会展示

金融服务的

难点,这很难

整合 感兴趣,然后我们会

向人们展示电子邮件付款,这

实际上很容易,每个人都

感兴趣,所以这是我认为

从你的环境中获取反馈很重要,

不是你想要尽可能地

闭环,所以我们专注

在电子邮件支付上,并真正尝试使

这项工作发挥作用,这才是真正让

事情起飞的原因,但如果我们没有,如果

我们没有回应人们所说的

话,那么我们可能不会

成功,所以寻找

像这样的事情,

当你看到它们并且

是正确的时候关注它们

从人类

的角度来看,这真的不是从

什么排名或

赚钱的最佳方式的角度来看,这是

可以的,但我认为这确实

是对未来人类影响最大的,

所以我认为

我们面临的最大陆地问题是可持续能源,

如果我们

不解决这个世纪是一个

世纪,我们就会以可持续的方式生产和消费能源,我们将陷入严重的麻烦,

而另一个则是

将生命延伸到地球之外,使生命成为多行星生命

这就是基础,后者

是 SpaceX 的基础力量,

前者是特斯拉和

SolarCity 的

基础 不可能有人

开一家火箭公司我没那么

疯狂

,但后来我想好什么

是增加美国宇航局预算的方法,这

实际上是我最初的目标,所以我

想如果我们能做一个低成本的

火星任务 所以我们叫火星绿洲,它会

用脱水的种子着陆,会

收到一些脱水的营养凝胶,

你在着陆时给它们补水,然后

你就会

在红色的ba上得到这种绿色植物的大钱

ckground,是的,公众倾向于对

总统和最高级的回应,这

将是火星上的第一个生命

,据我们所知,生命旅行最远的地方

,我

认为这会让人们非常

兴奋,因此会增加

美国宇航局的预算如此明显

,这样一次任务的财务结果

可能会为零,所以任何

比这更好的事情都是有利的,

所以我实际上去了我去俄罗斯

三度考虑购买

翻新的洲际弹道导弹,因为那是

最好的 交易,我可以告诉你

,2000 年去那里很奇怪 2001 年末 2002 年

去俄罗斯火箭部队,

说我想买你的两枚

最大的火箭,但你可以保留更多的

核武器,那是 10

几年前,

我猜他们认为

我疯了,但我确实有钱

,所以没关系,在

多次前往俄罗斯后,

我得出的结论是,这实际上是我

的 最初的印象是错误的,

因为我最初的想法

是没有足够的意愿去探索

它并扩展到地球之外并拥有一个

火星基地之类的东西,但我

无法缓冲这是错误

的事实上有很多

特别是在美国,

因为美国是一个

由来自世界其他地方的人在这里探险的国家

,我认为美国确实是

人类探索精神的公正升华,

但是如果人们认为这是

不可能的,那么 否则会完全

破坏联邦预算,然后他们

不会这样做,所以在我第三次

旅行之后,我说好吧,我们真正

需要做的是尝试解决

太空运输问题,然后启动了

SpaceX,这违反了

几乎所有与我交谈过的人的建议

一个朋友让我坐下来观看

一堆火箭爆炸的视频

让我告诉你他并没有错

,只是去那里很艰难 一

开始因为我从来没有建造

过任何实体我的意思是我

小时候都喜欢小型火箭模型之

类的东西,但我从来没有一家

公司建造任何实体所以我想出

了如何去做所有事情 这些事情

,并把合适的团队聚集在一起

,所以我们做了所有这些

,然后失败了三次,这很

艰难,因为考虑

火箭的是,及格率是

百分百,而你没有

在将要进入的真实环境中实际测试火箭,

所以我

认为火箭工程的最佳类比

是,如果你想

创建一个非常复杂但

无法运行的

软件 整体集成,您无法

在要运行的计算机上运行它,

但是当您第一次将它们

放在一起并在该计算机上编写时,

它必须运行没有错误,这

基本上是它的本质,所以我们错过

了标记 那里是第一个 laun 我

在发射场附近捡起一些火箭

,但很伤心,但我们

在每次连续飞行中

都学会了,并且最终能够

在 2008 年的第四次飞行中到达

轨道,这也是最后

一点钱 我们有,

所以他们谢天谢地,那

件事发生

了 百万磅

的推力,我们设法将

其送入轨道,然后开发了龙飞船,它最近能够

停靠并从空间站返回地球

谢谢,我是一个白手起家的事件,所以

是的,这是一个巨大的缓解

慢可以 不太相信它真的

发生了,但

除了这个之外,他还必须有更多的东西才能让

人类成为一个太空

文明,最终成为一个多行星

物种,这就是我认为的

它是至关重要的,

我希望你们中的一些人会

在 SpaceX 或其他公司参与其中,

因为这

真的是保存和扩展意识的最重要的事情之一,

我的意思是这值得注意,

因为我 肯定人们都知道

地球已经存在了四十亿

年,文明至少在

文字方面已经存在了

一万年

,这是慷慨的,所以

它真的是一种脆弱的存在

,这是一个文明 和

我们所知道的意识一直

在地球上,我想我实际上我

对地球的未来相当乐观,所以我不想我

不想让人们

犯错 印象我认为我们都快

死了

99% 的可能性

1% 的可能性 它仍然

值得花费相当多的努力来

确保我们已经

在行星冗余中支持了生物圈,如果

你愿意的话,所以我认为这

真的非常重要

为了实现这一点

,需要取得突破,即创建一个

快速且完全可重复使用的

火星运输系统,这是

几乎不可能

的事情之一,但这就是我们要做的事情 “

我们是否会尝试通过 SpaceX 来实现这一目标

,然后在特斯拉方面,我们

的目标是真正尝试

展示电动汽车可以做什么,

因为人们对我们有错误的印象

改变人们对电动汽车的看法,

因为他们过去

认为它是一种缓慢

而丑陋的东西,而且射程很短,就像

高尔夫球车一样,这就是为什么我们创造

了特斯拉跑车来表明你

可以快速行动 活跃和远程

,令人惊讶的是,即使您可以

证明某些东西在纸上有效并且

您知道并且计算非常

清晰,直到您真正拥有

物理对象并且他们可以

驱动它,它并没有真正陷入

所以我认为这是

值得学习的东西如果你

要创建一家公司你

应该尝试做的第一件事是创建一个工作

原型

你知道一切

在 PowerPoint 上看起来都很棒你可以在 PowerPoint 上做

任何事情 但是

如果你有一个实际的

演示文章,即使它是

原始形式的,这

对于说服人们更有效,所以我们

制造了特斯拉跑车,现在我们

很快就会推出 Model S,它

是一个四- 门轿车,因为在我们

制造了特斯拉跑车之后,人们说,

当然,我们一直都知道你可以制造

一辆这样的汽车,它是一辆昂贵的汽车

,体积小,体积小

等等,但你不能 制造一辆真正的

汽车,好吧,好吧,你也必须制造它,

这样它很快就会出来,

是的,就是这样,这

就是我认为事物所在的词,

并希望有

一些教训可以吸取 在那里,但

我想我想说的最重要的

一点是,你们

是 21 世纪的魔术师,你们知道不喜欢

任何东西阻止你们想象力

是极限,去那里创造

一些魔法谢谢你们