ENGLISH SPEECH ELON MUSK Think Big Dream Even Bigger English Subtitles
All right.
I’d like to thank you for leaving ‘crazy
person’ out of the description.
So, I thought — I was trying to think what’s
the most useful thing that I – what I can
say that can actually be helpful and useful
to you in the future.
And I thought, perhaps tell the story of how
I sort of came to be here.
How did these things happen?
And maybe there are lessons there.
I often find myself wondering, how did this
happen.
When I was young, I didn’t really know what
I was going to do when I got older.
People kept asking me.
But then eventually, I thought the idea of
inventing things would be really cool.
And the reason I thought that was because
I read a quote from Arthur C. Clark which
said that “A sufficiently advanced technology
is indistinguishable from magic.’
And that’s really true.
If you go back say, 300 years, the things
we take for granted today, you’d be burned
at stake for.
Being able to fly.
That’s crazy.
Being able to see over long distances, being
able to communicate, having effectively with
the Internet as a group mind of sorts, and
having access to all the world’s information
instantly from almost anywhere on the earth.
This stuff that really would be magic – that
would be considered magic in times past.
In fact, I think it actually goes beyond that,
because there are many things that we take
for granted today that weren’t even imagined
in times past, that weren’t even in the
realm of magic.
So, it actually goes beyond that.
So I thought, well if I can do some of those
things – basically if I can advance technology,
then that is like magic and that would be
really cool.
I always had an existential crisis, because
I was trying to figure out ‘what does it
all mean?’
Like what’s the purpose of things?
And I came to the conclusion that if we can
advance the knowledge of the world, if we
can do things that expand the scope and scale
of consciousness, then we’re better able
to ask the right questions and become more
enlightened.
And that’s the only way forward.
So, I studied physics and business, because
I figured in order to do a lot of these things
you need to know how the universe works and
you need to know how the economy works.
And you also need to be able to bring a lot
of people together to work with you to create
something.
Because it’s very difficult to do something
as individuals if it’s a significant technology.
So, I originally came out to California to
try to figure out how to improve the energy
density of electric vehicles – basically
to try to figure out if there was an advanced
capacitor that could serve as an alternative
to batteries.
And that was in 1995.
That’s also when the Internet started to
happen.
And I thought well I could either pursue this
technology, where success may not be one of
the possible outcomes, which is always tricky,
or participate in the Internet and be part
of it.
So, I decided to drop out.
Fortunately, we’re past graduation, so,
I can’t be accused of recommending that
to you.
And I did some Internet stuff, you know.
I’ve done a few things here and there.
One of which is PayPal.
Maybe it’s helpful to say, one of the things
that was important then in the creation of
PayPal was how it started.
Because initially – the initial thought
with PayPal was to create a conglomeration
of financial services, so if you have one
place where all of your financial services
needs could be seamlessly integrated and works
smoothly.
And we had a little feature, which was through
e-mail payments.
Whenever we’d show the system off to someone,
we’d show the hard part, which was the conglomeration
of financial services, which is quite difficult
to put together.
Nobody was interested.
Then we showed people e-mail payments, which
was quite easy, and everybody was interested.
So, I think it’s important to take feedback
from your environment.
You want to be as closed-loop as possible.
So, we focused on e-mail payments and tried
to make that work.
And that’s what really got things to take
off.
But, if we hadn’t responded to what people
said, then we probably would not have been
successful.
So, it’s important to look for things like
that and focus on them when you seem them,
and you correct your prior assumptions.
Going from PayPal, I thought well, what are
some of the other problems that are likely
to most affect the future of humanity?
It really wasn’t from the perspective of,
‘what’s the best way to make money,’
which is okay, but it was really ‘what do
I think is going to most affect the future
of humanity.’
So, the biggest terrestrial problem we’ve
got is sustainable energy.
But the production and consumption of energy
in a sustainable manner.
If we don’t solve that in this century,
we’re in deep trouble.
And the other one being the extension of life
beyond earth to make life multi-planetary.
So that’s the basis for — the latter is
the basis for SpaceX and the former is the
basis for Tesla and SolarCity.
When I started SpaceX, initially, I thought
that well, there’s no way one could start
a rocket company.
I wasn’t that crazy.
But then, I thought, well, what is a way to
increase NASA’s budget?
That was actually my initial goal.
I thought well if we could do a low-cost mission
to Mars, something called Mars Oasis, which
would land with seeds in dehydrated nutrient
gel, then hydrate them upon landing.
And you’d have this great short of money
shot of green plants on a red background.
The public tends to respond to precedence
and superlatives.
And this would be the first life on Mars and
the furthest life had ever traveled as far
as we know.
And I thought well that would get people really
excited and increase NASA’s budget.
So obviously the financial outcome from such
a mission would probably be zero.
So, anything better than that was on the upside.
So, I went to Russia three times to look at
buying a refurbished ICBM… because that
was the best deal.
And I can tell you it was very weird going
there in late 2001-2002 going to the Russian
rocket forces and saying, ‘I’d like to
buy two of your biggest rockets, but you can
keep the nuke.’
That’s a lot more.
That was 10 years ago, I guess.
They thought I was crazy, but I did have money.
So, that was okay.
After making several trips to Russia, I came
to the conclusion that… that actually my
initial impression was wrong about – because
my initial thought was, well, that there is
not enough will to explore and expand beyond
earth and have a Mars base, that kind of thing.
But I came to the conclusion that was wrong.
In fact, there’s plenty of will, particularly
in the United States.
Because United States is a nation of explorers,
so people who came here from other parts of
the world.
I think the United States is really a distillation
of the spirit of human exploration.
But if people think it’s impossible, then
well it’s going to completely break the
federal budget, then they’re not going to
do it.
So, after my third trip, I said, okay, what
we really need to do here is try to solve
the space transport problem and started SpaceX.
And this was against the advice of pretty
much everyone I talked to.
One friend made sit down and watch a bunch
of videos of rockets blowing up.
Let me tell you he wasn’t far wrong.
It was tough going there in the beginning.
Because I never built anything physical.
I mean I built like a model rocket as a kid
and that kind of thing.
But I never had a company that built any physical.
So, I had to figure out how to do all these
things and bring together the right team of
people.
And we did all that, and then, failed three
times.
It was tough, tough going.
Because the thing about a rocket is, the passing
grade is 100%.
And you don’t get to actually test the rocket
in the real environment that is going to be
in.
So, I think to the best analogy for rocket
engineers is, if you want to create a really
complicated beta software, you can’t run
the software as an integrated whole, and you
can’t run it on the computer, it’s intended
to run on.
For the first time you put it all together
and run it on that computer, it must run with
no bugs.
That’s basically the essence of it.
So, we missed the mark there.
Think about a rocket, the passing grade is
100%.
And you don’t get to actually test the rocket
in the real environment that is going to be
in.
So, I think the best analogy for rocket engineers
is, if you want to create a really complicated
software, you can’t run the software as
an integrated whole, and you can’t run it
on the computer, it’s intended to run on,
but the first time you run it on the computer,
it must run with no bugs.
That’s basically the essence of it.
So, we missed the mark there.
The first launch, I was picking up bits of
rocket near the launch site, it was a bit
sad.
And we learned with each successive flight.
And we were able to, eventually with the fourth
flight in 2008, reach orbit.
That was also with the last bit of money that
we had.
Thank goodness that happened.
I think the saying is ‘fourth time is the
charm?’
So, we got the Falcon 1 to orbit.
And then, began to scale it up to the Falcon
9 which is about an order of magnitude more
thrust, it’s around a million pounds of
thrust.
We managed to get that to orbit, and then
developed the Dragon spacecraft, which recently
was able to dock and returned to earth from
the space station.
Thanks.
That
was a white-knuckle event.
It is a huge relief.
I still can’t believe it actually happened.
But there’s lot more that must happen beyond
this in order for humanity to become a spacefaring
civilization and ultimately a multi-planet
species.
And that’s something I think it’s vitally
important.
And I hope that some of you will participate
in that either at SpaceX or other companies.
Because it’s just really one of the most
important things for the preservation and
extension of consciousness.
It’s worth noting as I’m sure people are
aware that Earth has been around for 4 billion
years, but civilization in terms of having
writing has been about 10,000 years, and that’s
being generous.
So, it’s really somewhat of a tenuous existence
that civilization and consciousness has been
on earth.
I’m actually fairly optimistic about the
future of earth.
I don’t want to people sort of have the
wrong impression like we’re all about to
die.
I think things will most likely be okay for
a long time on earth.
Not for sure, but, most likely.
But even if it’s 99% likely, a 1% chance
is still worth spending a fair bit of effort
to ensure that we have — back up the biosphere,
and planetary redundancy if you will.
And I think it’s really quite important.
And in order to do that, there’s breakthrough
that needs to occur which is to create a rapidly
and completely reusable transport system to
Mars, which is one of those things that’s
right on the borderline of even impossible.
But that’s the sort of the thing that we’re
going to try to achieve with SpaceX.
And then, on the Tesla front, the goal with
Tesla was really to try to show what electric
cars can do.
Because people had the wrong impression, and
we had to change people’s perceptions of
electric vehicle.
Because they used to think of it as something
that was slow and ugly, with low range, like
a golf cart.
So, that’s why we created the Tesla Roadster,
to show that it can be fast, attractive and
long range.
And it’s amazing how — even though you
can show that something works on paper, and
the calculations are very clear, until you
actually have the physical object, and they
can drive it, it doesn’t really sink in
for people.
So that I think is something worth nothing.
If you’re going to create a company, the
first thing you should try to do is create
a working prototype.
Everything looks great on PowerPoint.
You can make anything work on PowerPoint.
But, if you have an actual demonstration article,
even if it’s in primitive form, that’s
much more effective in convincing people.
So, we made the Tesla Roadster, and now we’re
coming out soon with model S, which is a 4-door
sedan.
Because after we made the Tesla Roadster people
said, ‘oh sure, sure we always knew you
could make a car like that, it’s an expensive
car and it’s low volume and small and all
that but can you make a real car?’
Okay, fine, we’re going to make that, too.
So, that’s coming out soon.
And so that’s where things are and hopefully,
there are lessons to be drawn there.
I think the overreaching point I want to make
is that: You guys are the magicians of the
21st century.
Don’t let anything hold you back.
Imagination is the limit.
Go out there and create some magic.
Thank you.