In life, we've seen, within this part of the world,

great people, like Al-Khawarizmi who invented algorithm.

Globally, Newton.

Henry Ford, the Wright Brothers, Albert Einstein and Elon Musk.

See, you are in rush, You want to go to places that nobody has been.

You are re-inventing a certain industry, from the rocket industry with SpaceX to the

car industry with Tesla.

What's your life mission?

Why do you do whatever you do?

Sure, first of all, thank you for having me.

It's an honor to be here.

And I'm having a really great time with my kids in Dubai.

It's really been fantastic.

I really encourage anyone who hasn't been to visit, what a great

city!

Thank you.

And, in terms of the motivations, I used to like this sort of...

kind of a long version of the explanation but...

essentially, when I was a kid I was wondering, what's the meaning of life?

Like, why are we here?

What is it all about?

And I came to the conclusion that what really matters is

trying to understand the right questions to ask.

And the more that we can increase the scope and scale of human consciousness,

the better we're able to ask these questions.

And...

So, I think there are certain things that are necessary

to ensure that the future is good.

And... some of those things are in the long term

having long term sustainable transport and sustainable

energy generation.

And to be a space exploring civilization.

And for humanity to be out there among the stars.

And be a multi-planetary species.

I think that being a multi-planetary species and being out there among the stars

is important for the long-term survival of humanity.

And, that's one reason, kind of like life insurance

for life collectively.

Life as we know it.

But then the part that I find personally most motivating is that

it creates a sense of adventure, and it makes people excited about the future.

If you consider two futures, one where we are forever confined to Earth

until eventually something terrible happens.

Or another future where we are out there on many planets,

maybe even going beyond the solar system.

I think that space invasion is incredibly exciting and inspiring.

And there need to be reasons to get up in the morning.

You know, life can't just be about solving problems.

Otherwise, what's the point?

There's got to be things that people find inspiring,

and make life worth living.

So, what is life for you?

I mean, you look at our life, and I heard you before speaking.

Is it a dream?

Is it real?

Is it a million deal?

What is life for Elon Musk?

I find that as I get older I find that question to be

maybe more and more confusing or troubling or uncertain.

Particularly when you see the advancement of something like video games.

You know, 40 years ago, you had video games, the most advanced video game would be

like Pong, when you had two rectangles and a dot.

And you're like batting it back and forth.

• I played it.

• Yeah, me too, exactly.

• Us all.

• It sort of dates you a little bit.

Yeah, we both played the same game.

And that was like a pretty fun game at the time.

But now, you can see a video game that's photo-realistic, almost photo-realistic,

and millions of people playing simultaneously.

And, and you see where things are going with virtual reality.

And augmented reality and... if you extrapolate that out into the future

with any rate of progress at all, like keeping 0.1% of something like that a

year, then eventually those games will be indistinguishable

from reality.

They'll be so realistic you won't be able to tell the difference between

that game and reality as we know it.

And then, it seems like, well, how do we know that that didn't happen in

the past?

And that we're not in one of those games ourselves?

Interesting.

Interesting.

I mean, it could be.

Everything is possible in life.

I mean there's...

Yeah, particularly like things tend to be accelerating to something.

Isn't it?

I mean, if we look at our life, it seems in the past 100 years life has been

accelerating quite fast.

• Yeah.

• In the past 20 years.

• It's getting faster and faster.

• Is it more slow?

So, my question is really, how will life be 20, 30, 50 years from now?

Our education, our transport.

How do you see it?

Well, I think this is one of those things that are quite difficult to predict.

When you think of, say, the first controlled power flight was in 1903

with the Wright Brothers.

And then, 66 years later we put the first people on the moon.

I mean, if you asked people, say, in 1900, what are the odds of landing on the moon they

would've said that's ridiculous.

If you try to talk to them about the internet they wouldn't know what the heck you're even...

What are you talking about?

Like, this sounds so crazy.

But today, with a hundred-dollar device you can video-conference

with anyone in the world.

On the other side of the world, and if you have a Wi-Fi connection,

it's basically free.

You're free to have an instant visual communication with anyone,

or even with millions of people.

You know, with social media you can communicate to millions of people

simultaneously.

So, and you can google something and ask any question.

It's like an oracle of wisdom, that you can ask almost any questions and

get an instant response.

It would be incredibly difficult to predict these things in the past.

Even the relatively recent past.

So, I think the one thing that we can be quite certain of

is that any predictions we make today for what the future will be like in 50 years

will be wrong That's for sure.

I think directionally, I can tell you what I hope the future has,

as opposed to maybe what it will be.

This may just be wishful thinking.

I mean I hope we are out there on Mars and maybe beyond Mars, Jupiter.

I hope we're traveling frequently throughout the solar system,

perhaps preparing for missions to nearby star systems.

I think all of that is possible in 50 years.

And I think it's going to be very exciting to do that.

And, I think we'll see autonomy and artificial intelligence

advance tremendously.

Like that's actually quite near term.

My guess is in probably 10 years, it will be very unusual for cars to be built

that are not fully autonomous.

• 10 years.

• 10 years from now?

Yeah.

I think almost all cars built will be able of full autonomy

in about 10 years.

As it is, the Tesla cars that are made today, have the sensor system necessary for full

autonomy.

And we think probably enough compute power to be safer than a person.

So, it's mostly just the question of developing the software

and uploading the software.

And if it turns out that more compute power is needed,

we can easily upgrade the computer.

And, so that's all Teslas built since October last year.

And other manufacturers will follow and do the same thing.

So, getting in a car will be like getting in an elevator.

You just tell it where you want to go and it takes you there

with extreme levels of safety.

And that will be normal, that will just be normal.

Like, for elevators, they used to be elevator operators.

You get in, there will be a guy moving a lever.

Now, you just get in, you press the button and that's taken for granted.

So, autonomy will be wide-spread.

I think one of the most troubling questions is artificial intelligence.

And I don't mean narrow AI, like, vehicle autonomy I would put in the narrow

AI class.

It's narrowly trying to achieve a certain function.

But deep artificial intelligence, or what is sometimes called artificial general

intelligence, where you can have AI that is much smarter

than the smartest human on Earth.

This, I think, is a dangerous situation.

Why is it dangerous?

I mean, there are two views, one view is that artificial intelligence will

help humanity, and there's another school of thought that

artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity.

• Why is that?

• I think it's both.

You know, it's like... one way to think of it is imagine we're going

to be visited... imagine you're very confident that we're going

to be visited by super intelligent aliens,

in let's say 10 years or 20 years at the most.

• Super intelligent.

• So, you think within 20 years...

• Yeah... - we'll have aliens on Earth?

Well, digital super intelligence will be like an alien.

• It will be like an alien.

• Yeah.

But my question is, do you think there is other intelligent life outside the

Earth?

It seems probable.

I think this is one of the great questions in physics and philosophy,

is, where are the aliens?

Maybe they are among us, I don't know.

Some people think I'm an alien.

Not true.

• Not true.

• But maybe we are aliens.

Maybe we aliens.

I mean, if you look at this part of the world.

Yeah.

They believe that human beings are not from Earth,

they came from somewhere else.

Eve and Adam came from somewhere else to Earth.

So, in a way, human beings are aliens to this land.

Do you think we'll make contact with aliens within the next 50 years?

Well, that's a really tough one to say.

If there are super intelligent aliens out there,

they're probably already observing us.

That would seem quite likely and we're not smart enough to realize it.

But I can do some back of the envelope calculations and...

any advanced alien civilization that is at all interested

in populating the galaxy, even without exceeding the speed of light,

even if you're only moving at, say, 10 or 20 per cent of the speed of light,

you could populate the entire galaxy in let's say 10 million years.

Maybe 20 million years max.

This is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Once you said you wanted to die on Mars.

Why?

To be clear, I don't want to die on Mars.

It's like, if... we're all going to die someday, and if you're going to pick some place to

die, then why not Mars?

You know, if you're born on Earth, why not die on Mars?

Seems like may be quite exciting.

But, I think given the choice between dying on Earth and dying on Mars,

I'd say, yeah, sure, I'll die on Mars.

But it's not some kind of Mars death wish.

And if I do die on Mars, I just don't want to go on impact.

Let's come back to Earth, actually.

You tweeted that you are building a tunnel under Washington D.C.

Why?

What is it?

• It's a secret plot.

• Okay.

• Just between us.

• Nobody helps you?

Yeah, exactly, let's keep that a secret.

I think this is going to sound a little...

I mean, it seems like so much trivial or silly, but...

I've been saying this for many years now but I think that

the solution to urban congestion is a network of tunnels under cities.

And when I say that I don't mean a 2-D plan of tunnels,

I mean tunnels that go many levels deep.

So, you can always go deeper than you can go up.

Like, the deepest mines are deeper than the tallest buildings.

So, you can have a network of tunnels that is 20, 30, 40, 50 levels,

as many levels as you want, really.

And so, given that, you can overcome the congestion situation

in any city in the world.

The challenge is how do you build tunnels quickly and at low cost

and with high safety?

So, if tunnel technology can be improved to the point where

you can build tunnels fast, cheap and safe, then that would completely get rid of any

traffic situations in the cities.

And so, that's why I think it's an important technology.

And, Washington D.C., L.A and most of the major American cities,

most major cities in the world suffer from severe traffic issues.

And it's mostly because you've got these buildings which are,

these tall buildings that are 3-D and you have a road network that is one level.

And then, people generally want to go in and out of these buildings

at the exact same time.

So, then, you get the traffic jam.

Let's come back to... your year in Dubai.

The first time I met you it was the 4th of June 2015,

at your office in SpaceX.

And, I asked you would you have a presence in UAE?

And your answer was: I'm busy with China.

Maybe not in the near future, and almost a year and a half later,

we are here, seems time goes quite fast.

Why now?

I think actually things are going really well in China.

So, we have some initial challenges figuring out charging

and service infrastructure and various other things, but

now it's actually going really well, and... so the timing seems to be good to really make

a significant debut in this region, starting in Dubai.

In your opinion, what is the new disturbing thing

that will come next in technology?

What's next in technology?

• What's next in technology?

• That will disturb the way we live, the way we think, the way we do business.

Well, the most near to impact from a technological standpoint

is autonomous cars, like fully self-driving cars.

I'd say that's going to happen much faster than people realize.

so, and that's... it's going to be a great convenience to be

in an autonomous car, but there are many people whose job is to

drive.

So, if... in fact I think it might be the single largest employer

of people is driving in various forms.

And so, then we need to figure out new rules for what do these people do.

But it will all be very disruptive and very quick.

I should characterize what I mean by quick.

Because there are...

Quick means different things to different people.

There are about two billion vehicles in the world.

Approaching in fact 2.5 billion cars and trucks in the world.

The total new vehicle production capacity is about a hundred million.

Which makes sense, because the life of a car or truck

before it's finally scraped is about 20-25 years.

So, so the point at which we see full autonomy appear

will not be the point at which there is massive societal upheaval,

because it will take a long time to make enough autonomous vehicles

to disrupt employment.

So, that disruption I'm talking about will take place over about 20 years.

Still, 20 years is a short period of time to have I think something like

12 to 15 per cent of the world force be unemployed.

Thank you.

This is the largest global government summit we have over 139 governments here.

If you want to advise government officials to be ready for the future,

what three pieces of advice can you give them?

Well, I think the first bit of advice is to really play close attention to...

the development of artificial intelligence.

I think this is, we need to be just be very careful in...

how we adopt artificial intelligence, and to make sure that researchers don't get

carried away, because sometimes what happens is that scientists

can get so engrossed in their work,

they don't necessarily realize the ramifications of what they're doing.

So, I think it's important for public safety that we...

you know, governments keep a close eye on artificial intelligence

and make sure that it does not represent a danger to the public.

Let's see, secondly I would say we do need to think about transport in general.

And, there's the movement towards electric vehicles,

sustainable transport, I think that's going to be good for many reasons,

but again, not something that happens immediately, that's

going to happen slower than the self-driving vehicles.

Because that's probably something that happens over 30 or 40 years.

The transition to electric vehicles.

So, thinking about that in context... the demand for electricity will increase dramatically.

So, currently, in terms of total energy usage in the world,

it's about 1/3, about 1/3 transport, about 1/3 heating.

So, over time that will transition to almost all...

not all, but predominantly electricity, which means that the demand for electricity

will probably triple.

So, it's going to be very important to think about how do you make

so much more electricity And...

It seems they'll have an easy job, that's it,

there are no more challenges for them.

No, well, I think maybe... these things do play into each other a little

bit, but what to do about mass unemployment?

This is going to be a massive social challenge.

And I think ultimately will have to have some kind of universal basic income

I don't think we're going to have a choice.

• Universal basic income.

• Universal basic income.

I think it's going to be necessary.

So, it means that unemployed people will be paid across the globe.

• Yeah.

• Because there are no jobs.

Machines, robots are taking over.

There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.

That's simply...

And I want to be clear, these are not things that I wish would happen.

These are simply things that I think probably will happen.

And so, if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen,

then we need to say what are we going to do about it.

And I think some kind of universal basic income is going to be necessary.

Now, the output of goods and services will be extremely high.

So, with automation, there will come abundance.

There will be... almost everything will get very cheap.

The...

So...

I think the biggest...

I think we'll just end up doing a universal basic income.

It's going to be necessary.

The harder challenge, much harder challenge, is how do people then have meaning?

Like a lot of people they derive their meaning from their employment,

so, if you don't have... if you're not needed, if there's not a need for your labor, how

do you...

what's the meaning?

Do you have meaning?

Do you feel useless?

That's a much harder problem to deal with.

And then how do we ensure that the future is going to be the future that we want?

That we so like.

You know, I mean do think that there's a potential path here which is,

I'm really getting into science fiction or sort of advanced science stuff.

But, having some sort of merger with biological intelligence,

and machine intelligence.

To some degree, we are already a cyborg.

You think of like the digital tools that you have,

your phone and your computer, the applications that you have.

Like the fact that as I mentioned earlier you can ask a question

and instantly get an answer from Google or from other things.

And, and so you already have a digital touchery layer.

I say touchery because you can think of the limbic system,

kind of the animal brain or the primal brain and then the cortex,

kind of the thinking, planning part of the brain,

and then your digital self as a third layer.

So, you already have that, and I think if somebody dies,

their digital ghost is still around.

All of their e-mails and the pictures that they posted and their social media.

That still lives, even if they died.

So, over time I think we'll probably see a closer merger of biological intelligence

and digital intelligence.

And it's mostly about the bandwidth, the speed of the connection between your brain

and your digital... the digital extension of yourself.

Particularly output, and, if anything is getting worse,

you know, we used to have keyboards that we used a lot,

now we do most of our input through our thumbs, on a phone.

And, that's just very slow.

A computer can communicate at a trillion bits per second,

but your thumb can maybe do maybe 10 bits per second or a hundred

if you're being generous.

So, some high bandwidth interface to the brain I think will be

something that helps achieve symbiosis, between human and machine intelligence and

maybe solves the control problem and the usefulness problem.

I'm getting pretty esoteric here, I don't know is this is...

It's close, we got it.

Always you think out of the box.

Your ideas are so huge.

You want to go to space, you decided to go to space, you did it.

You decided that you wanted to land your rocket back,

• you failed, 7 times, 8 times?

• Yeah, something like that.

• Then it landed.

• 4 times that I care to count.

How do you come with these ideas?

Sometimes they are pushing the human limit.

You are always pushing the human limit, why?

Well, I...

I think about what technology solution is necessary in order to achieve

that particular goal, and then try to make as much progress in that

direction as possible.

So, in the case of space flight, the critical breakthrough

that's necessary in space flight, is rapid incomplete reusability of rockets.

Just as we have for air crafts.

You can imagine that if an air craft was a single use,

almost no one would fly.

Because you can buy like, say, 747 might be...

250 million Dollars, 300 million Dollars, something like that.

You need two of them for a round trip.

But nobody is going to pay millions of Dollars for a ticket to fly.

To do air travel.

So, but because you can re-use the air craft tens of thousands of times,

the...

Air travel becomes much more affordable.

And, the same is true of rockets.

Our rocket costs...

60 million Dollars, roughly.

So, a capital cost if it can be used once in 60 million Dollars.

But if the capital cost if it can be used a thousand times is 60 thousand Dollars.

So, then if you can carry a lot of people for a flight,

then you can get the cost of space flight to be something not far

from the cost of air flight.

So, it's truly fundamental, because earth gravity is quite deep.

Earth has a fairly high gravity.

The difficulty of making a rocket reusable is much greater than the difficulty of making

an air craft reusable.

That's why a fully reusable rocket hasn't been developed that far.

But if you use the most advanced materials, the most advanced design techniques,

and you get everything just right, then I'm confident that you can do a fully

reusable rocket.

Fortunately, if Earth gravity was even 10 per cent stronger,

I would say it wouldn't be impossible.

You need a team around you to deliver a lot of ideas.

How do you choose your team?

Based on what?

Well, I suppose honestly that it tends to be a gut feeling more than anything else.

So, when I interview somebody, the main questions are always the same.

What do you ask?

I say: Tell me the story of your life.

And, the decisions that you made along the way

and why you made them.

And then, and also tell me about some of the most difficult

problems you worked on and how you solved them.

And, that question I think is very important, because...

the people that really solved the problem, they know exactly how they solved it.

They know the little details.

And the people that pretended to solve the problem,

they can maybe go one level and then they get stuck.

So, what was your biggest challenge in life?

Biggest challenge in life?

• No challenge?

• Well, no, there's a lot of them.

I'm trying to sort which is the worst.

I think just thinking about how to spend time.

One of the biggest challenges I think is making sure you have

a corrective feedback loop, and then maintaining that corrective feedback

loop over time, even when people won't to tell you exactly

what you want to hear.

• That's very difficult.

• Yes.

Time is over.

I'll ask you just one last question.

If you allow me.

In the World Government Summit we have so many people from... so many young people

actually from across the Globe.

If you have an advice to them, young people globally who want to be like

Elon Musk.

What's your advice to them?

I think that probably they shouldn't want to be.

• You?

• I think it sounds better than it is.

Okay.

Yeah, it's not as much fun being me as you'd think.

• I don't know.

• You don't think so?

It could be worse, for sure.

But it's...

I'm not sure I want to be me.

Okay.

But...

You know, I think my advice is if you want to make progress in things,

I think that the best analytical framework for, I'll say in the future is physics.

I'd recommend studying the thinking process around physics.

Like, not just the equations, the equations are certainly very helpful,

but the way of thinking in physics, it's the best framework

for understanding things that are counter–intuitive.

And, you know, always take the position that you are to some degree wrong,

and your goal is to be less wrong over time.

One of the biggest mistakes people generally make and I'm guilty of it too

is wishful thinking.

You know, like you want something to be true, even if it isn't true.

And so you ignore the things that...

You ignore the real truth, because of what you want to be true.

This is a very difficult trap to avoid.

And like I said, it's certainly one that I find myself in, having problems with.

But, if you just take that approach of that you're always to some degree wrong

and your goal is to be less wrong.

And solicit critical feedback, particularly from friends.

Like, friends, if somebody loves you they want the best for you.

They don't want to tell you the bad things.

So, you have to ask them and say: I do really want to know.

And then they will tell you.

Thank you very much.

It's been...

It's great for the World Government Summit to have a legend,

who's creating the future for humanity, to share his thoughts, his ideas, his visions,

challenges, and his hope for life.

Thank you very much.

Thanks for having me.

{{}}

在生活中，我们在世界的这个地方看到了

伟大的人，比如发明算法的花拉子米 。

在全球范围内，牛顿。

亨利福特、莱特兄弟、 阿尔伯特爱因斯坦和埃隆马斯克。

看，你很匆忙， 你想去没人去过的地方。

你正在重新发明某个行业， 从 SpaceX 的火箭行业到

特斯拉的汽车行业。

你的人生使命是什么？

你为什么要做你所做的一切？

当然，首先，谢谢你邀请我。

很荣幸来到这里。

我和我的 孩子们在迪拜玩得很开心。

这真是太棒了。

我真的鼓励 没有去过的人，多么伟大的

城市！

谢谢你。

而且，就动机而言， 我曾经喜欢这种……

一种长版本的解释， 但……

本质上，当我还是个孩子的时候，我在想， 生活的意义是什么？

比如，我们为什么在这里？

这是什么一回事呢？

我得出的结论是，真正 重要的是

试图理解要问的正确问题 。

我们越能扩大 人类意识的范围和规模

，我们就越能提出这些问题。

而且......

所以，我认为有一些事情 是

确保未来美好所必需的。

而且...... 其中一些东西是长期的，

具有 长期的可持续运输和可持续的

能源生产。

并成为探索文明的空间。

让人类出现在 群星之中。

并成为一个多行星物种。

我认为作为一个多行星物种 并在群星

中生存对于人类的长期生存很重要 。

而且，这是一个原因，有点像

人寿保险。

我们所知道的生活。

但我个人觉得最 激励人心的部分是

它创造了一种冒险的感觉 ，它让人们对未来感到兴奋。

如果你考虑两种未来，一种是 我们永远被限制在地球上，

直到最终发生可怕的事情。

或者我们在许多行星上的另一个未来，

甚至可能超越太阳系。

我认为太空入侵非常令人 兴奋和鼓舞人心。

并且需要有理由 早上起床。

你知道，生活不能只是解决 问题。

否则，有什么意义呢？

一定有一些事情能让人们觉得 鼓舞人心

，让生活变得有价值。

那么，对你来说生活是什么？

我的意思是，你看看我们的生活，我 在说话之前就听到了你的声音。

是梦吗？

这是真的吗？

是百万交易吗？

埃隆马斯克的生活是什么？

我发现随着年龄的增长，我发现这个问题

可能越来越令人困惑、令人不安 或不确定。

尤其是当您看到 诸如视频游戏之类的东西的进步时。

你知道，40 年前，你有电子游戏 ，最先进的电子游戏

就像 Pong，当你有两个矩形和 一个点时。

你就像来回击球一样。

• 我玩过。

• 是的，我也是。

• 我们所有人。

• 它有点约会你。

是的，我们俩玩的是同一个游戏。

这在当时就像一个非常有趣的游戏 。

但是现在，您可以看到一款照片般逼真、 几乎照片般逼真的视频游戏，

并且有数百万人同时在玩。

而且，您会看到 虚拟现实的发展方向。

还有增强现实…… 如果你以任何进展率将其推断到未来

， 比如每年保留 0.1% 的类似东西

， 那么最终这些游戏将与现实无法区分

。

它们会如此逼真，以至于您将 无法区分

该游戏与我们所知道的现实之间的区别。

然后，看起来，好吧， 我们怎么知道这在过去没有发生

？

而且我们自己没有参加其中一场比赛？

有趣的。

有趣的。

我的意思是，它可能是。

生活中一切皆有可能。

我的意思是……

是的，尤其是事情往往会 加速发展。

不是吗？

我的意思是，如果我们看看我们的生活， 在过去的 100 年里，生活似乎一直在

加速。

• 是的。

• 在过去的 20 年中。

• 它越来越快。

• 是不是更慢了？

所以，我的问题是，20、30、50 年后的生活会怎样 ？

我们的教育，我们的交通。

你怎么看？

好吧，我认为 这是很难预测的事情之一。

例如，当您想到第一次受控 动力飞行时，是在 1903 年

与莱特兄弟一起进行的。

然后，66 年后，我们将第一批 人送上了月球。

我的意思是，如果你问人们，比如说，在 1900 年， 登月的几率是多少，他们

会说这太荒谬了。

如果您尝试与他们谈论互联网， 他们甚至不会知道您

到底是什么……您在说什么？

就像，这听起来很疯狂。

但是今天，使用一百美元的设备，您 可以

与世界上的任何人进行视频会议。

在世界的另一端，如果你 有 Wi-Fi 连接，

它基本上是免费的。

您可以自由地 与任何人

甚至数百万人进行即时视觉交流。

您知道，通过社交媒体，您可以同时 与数百万人

进行交流。

所以，你可以用谷歌搜索一些东西并提出任何 问题。

它就像智慧的神谕 ，您几乎可以提出任何问题并

获得即时回复。

过去很难预测 这些事情。

即使是相对最近的过去。

所以，我认为我们可以非常确定的一件事

是，我们今天 对 50 年后的未来做出的任何预测

都是错误 的。这是肯定的。

我认为有方向性， 我可以告诉你我希望未来有

什么，而不是可能会是什么。

这可能只是一厢情愿。

我的意思是我希望我们在火星上， 也许在火星之外，木星。

我希望我们经常在 整个太阳系旅行，

也许是为前往附近恒星系统的任务做准备 。

我认为这一切都可能在 50 年内实现。

我认为这样做会非常令人 兴奋。

而且，我认为我们将看到自主性和人工智能的

巨大进步。

就像那实际上是相当近期的。

我的猜测可能是 10 年后 ，制造非完全自动驾驶的汽车将是非常不寻常的

。

• 10年。

• 10年后？

是的。

我认为几乎所有制造的汽车都将

在大约 10 年内实现完全自主。

事实上，今天制造的特斯拉汽车 拥有完全自主所需的传感器系统

。

我们认为可能有足够的计算能力 比一个人更安全。

因此，这主要只是 开发软件

和上传软件的问题。

如果事实证明需要更多的计算 能力，

我们可以轻松升级计算机。

而且，这就是自去年 10 月以来建造的所有特斯拉 。

其他制造商也会效仿， 做同样的事情。

所以，坐车就像 坐电梯一样。

您只需告诉它您想去哪里， 它就会

以极高的安全性将您带到那里。

这将是正常的，这将是 正常的。

就像，对于电梯，他们曾经是电梯 操作员。

你进去，会有一个人在移动杠杆。

现在，你刚进去，按下按钮 ，这被认为是理所当然的。

因此，自治将广泛传播。

我认为最令人不安的问题之一 是人工智能。

而且我并不是说狭义的人工智能，比如 我会放在狭义的人工智能类别中的车辆自主性

。

它只是试图实现某种 功能。

但是深度人工智能， 或者有时被称为通用

人工智能，你可以拥有

比地球上最聪明的人类更聪明的人工智能。

我认为，这是一个危险的情况。

为什么危险？

我的意思是，有两种观点， 一种观点认为人工智能会

帮助人类， 还有一种观点认为

人工智能是对人类的威胁。

• 这是为什么？

• 我认为两者兼而有之。

你知道，这就像...... 一种思考方式是想象我们

将被访问...... 想象你非常有信心我们

将被 超级智能外星人访问

，比方说 10 年 或者最多20年。

• 超级聪明。

• 所以，你认为在 20 年内...

• 是的... - 地球上会有外星人？

好吧，数字超级智能就像 外星人一样。

• 它会像一个外星人。

• 是的。

但我的问题是，你认为地球 之外还有其他智慧生命

吗？

似乎很有可能。

我认为这是物理学和哲学中最重要的问题 之一

，外星人在哪里？

也许他们在我们中间，我不知道。

有些人认为我是外星人。

不对。

• 不对。

• 但也许我们是外星人。

也许我们是外星人。

我的意思是，如果你看看这个世界。

是的。

他们认为人类不是来自 地球，

而是来自其他地方。

夏娃和亚当从别处来到地球。

所以，在某种程度上，人类对这片土地来说是外星人 。

你认为我们会 在未来 50 年内与外星人接触吗？

嗯，这真的很难说。

如果那里有超级聪明的 外星人，

他们可能已经在观察我们了。

这似乎很有可能，我们还 不够聪明，无法意识到这一点。

但是我可以做一些粗略的计算 和......

任何 对

填充银河系感兴趣的先进外星文明， 即使不超过

光速，即使你只是以 10 或 20 的速度移动 光速的百分之一，

你可以在 假设 1000 万年内填充整个银河系。

也许最多2000万年。

在宏伟的计划中，这算不了什么。

一旦你说你想死在火星上。

为什么？

说清楚，我不想死在火星上。

就像，如果……我们都会死去 ，如果你要找个地方

死， 那为什么不去火星呢？

你知道，如果你出生在地球上，为什么 不死在火星上？

看起来可能很令人兴奋。

但是，我认为考虑到 在地球上死亡和在火星上死亡之间的选择，

我会说，是的，当然，我会死在火星上。

但这不是某种火星死亡的愿望。

如果我真的死在火星上，我只是不想 继续撞击。

实际上，让我们回到地球。

你在推特上说你 正在华盛顿特区下修建一条隧道。

为什么？

它是什么？

• 这是一个秘密阴谋。

• 好的。

• 就在我们之间。

• 没有人帮你？

是的，确切地说，让我们保守秘密。

我认为这听起来有点...

城市下的隧道。

当我说我不是指隧道的二维平面图 时，

我指的隧道深度很多。

所以，你总是可以比你能走得更深 。

就像，最深的矿井比 最高的建筑物还要深。

所以，你可以拥有一个 20、30、40、50 层的隧道网络

，你想要多少层都行，真的。

因此，鉴于此，您可以克服

世界上任何城市的拥堵情况。

挑战在于如何 快速、低成本

、高安全性地建造隧道？

因此，如果隧道技术可以改进到

可以快速、廉价和安全地建造隧道的程度， 那么这将完全摆脱

城市中的任何交通状况。

所以，这就是为什么我认为这是一项重要的 技术。

而且，华盛顿特区、洛杉矶和大多数美国

主要城市，世界上大多数主要城市都面临着 严重的交通问题。

这主要是因为你有这些 建筑物，

这些高楼是 3D 的，你 有一个单层的道路网络。

然后，人们通常想同时 进出这些建筑物

。

所以，那么，你会遇到交通堵塞。

让我们回到…… 你在迪拜的一年。

我第一次见到你是 2015 年 6 月 4 日，

在你位于 SpaceX 的办公室。

而且，我问你会在阿联酋有业务 吗？

你的回答是：我忙于中国。

可能不会在不久的将来，差不多 一年半之后，

我们就到了，看来时间过得挺快的。

为什么现在？

我认为 实际上中国的情况非常好。

所以，我们在 弄清楚充电

和服务基础设施以及其他各种 事情方面遇到了一些初步挑战，但

现在它实际上进展顺利，而且...... 所以在这个地区真正首次亮相的时机似乎很好

，从迪拜开始 .

在您看来，

接下来在技术领域会出现什么令人不安的新事物？

技术的下一步是什么？

• 技术的下一步是什么？

• 这会扰乱 我们的生活方式、思维方式和经商方式。

嗯，从技术角度来看，最接近影响的

是自动驾驶汽车，比如全自动驾驶 汽车。

我会说这 将比人们意识到的要快得多。

所以，那就是……

驾驶自动驾驶汽车会非常方便， 但是有很多人的工作就是

开车。

所以，如果……事实上，我认为这可能是 最大的单一

雇主正在以各种形式开车。

因此，我们需要 为这些人的行为找出新的规则。

但这一切都将非常具有破坏性并且非常 迅速。

我应该描述我所说的快速。

因为有...

快速对不同的人意味着不同的东西 。

世界上有大约 20 亿辆汽车 。

事实上，全球接近 25 亿辆汽车和 卡车。

新车 总产能约1亿辆。

这是有道理的，因为汽车 或卡车

在最终报废之前的使用寿命约为 20-25 年。

因此，我们看到完全自动驾驶 出现的

时间点不会是大规模 社会动荡的时间点，

因为要制造足够多的 自动驾驶汽车

来扰乱就业需要很长时间。

所以，我所说的这种颠覆 将在大约 20 年内发生。

尽管如此，20 年还是很短的时间 ，我认为

世界上大约有 12% 到 15% 的人失业。

谢谢你。

这是最大的全球政府峰会， 我们在这里有超过 139 个政府。

如果你想建议政府官员 为未来做好准备，

你能给他们哪三条建议？

嗯，我认为第一个建议是 真正密切关注......

人工智能的发展。

我认为这是，我们需要非常 小心......

我们如何采用人工智能， 并确保研究人员不会

被忘却， 因为有时会发生科学家们

会如此 全神贯注于他们的工作 ，

他们不一定意识到 他们正在做的事情的后果。

所以，我认为对于公共安全 来说，我们......

你知道，政府密切关注 人工智能

并确保它不会 对公众构成危险。

让我们看看，其次我会说 我们确实需要考虑一般的运输。

而且， 还有电动汽车和

可持续交通的趋势， 我认为这将是好的，原因有很多，

但同样，这 不是立即发生的事情，它

的发生速度会 比自动驾驶汽车慢。

因为这可能是 30 或 40 年发生的事情。

向电动汽车的过渡。

因此，考虑到这一点…… 对电力的需求将急剧增加。

所以，目前，就世界能源使用总量而言，

大约是 1/3，大约 1/3 是交通，大约 1/3 是供暖。

因此，随着时间的推移，这将转变为几乎 所有……

不是全部，而是主要是电力， 这意味着对电力的需求

可能会增加三倍。

所以， 思考如何

制造更多的电力

将非常重要而且......看起来他们的工作很轻松，就是 这样

，他们不再面临挑战。

不，好吧，我想也许…… 这些事情确实会相互影响

， 但是如何应对大规模失业？

这将是一个巨大的社会挑战。

而且我认为最终将不得不拥有 某种普遍的基本收入，

我认为我们不会有选择。

• 普遍基本收入。

• 普遍基本收入。

我认为这将是必要的。

因此，这意味着失业人员将 在全球范围内获得报酬。

• 是的。

• 因为没有工作。

机器，机器人正在接管。

机器人不能做得更好的工作将会越来越少 。

这很简单……

而且我想澄清一下，这些不是 我希望发生的事情。

这些只是我认为可能 会发生的事情。

因此，如果我的评估是正确的并且它们 可能会发生，

那么我们需要说明我们将要做 什么。

我认为某种普遍的基本 收入将是必要的。

现在，商品和服务的产出 将非常高。

所以，有了自动化， 就会有丰富的东西。

会有……几乎所有东西都会变得 非常便宜。

......

所以......

我认为最大的......

我认为我们最终会做 一个普遍的基本收入。

这将是必要的。

更难的挑战，更难的挑战 是，人们如何才有意义？

像很多人一样，他们从工作中获得意义 ，

所以，如果你没有……如果你不需要， 如果不需要你的劳动，你

怎么……有

什么意义？

你有意义吗？

你觉得没用吗？

这是一个更难处理的问题。

然后我们如何确保未来 将是我们想要的未来？

我们非常喜欢。

你知道，我的意思是确实认为这里有一条潜在的 道路，那就是，

我真的进入了科幻小说或 某种高级科学的东西。

但是，与生物 智能

和机器智能进行某种合并。

在某种程度上，我们已经是一个半机械人。

你会想到你拥有的数字工具

、手机和电脑，以及 你拥有的应用程序。

就像我之前提到的那样， 您可以提出问题

并立即从 Google 或其他事物中获得答案。

而且，所以你已经有了一个数字触摸 层。

我说敏感是因为你可以想到 边缘系统，

一种动物大脑或原始大脑 ，然后是皮层，

一种思维， 大脑的计划部分，

然后是你的数字自我作为第三层。

所以，你已经有了，我认为如果 有人死了，

他们的数字幽灵仍然存在。

他们所有的电子邮件和 他们发布的图片以及他们的社交媒体。

即使他们死了，它仍然存在。

所以，随着时间的推移，我认为我们可能会看到 生物智能和数字智能更紧密的结合

。

它主要是关于带宽 ，你的大脑

和你的数字之间的连接速度...... 你自己的数字扩展。

特别是输出，而且，如果有任何事情变得 更糟，

你知道，我们曾经有很多使用过的键盘，

现在我们大部分的输入都是通过拇指 在手机上完成的。

而且，这非常慢。

一台计算机可以以每秒一万亿比特的速度进行通信 ，

但如果你慷慨的话，你的拇指可能每秒可以做 10 比特 或一百比特

。

因此，我认为一些与大脑的高带宽接口

将有助于实现 人机智能之间的共生，并

可能 解决控制问题和有用性问题。

我在这里变得很深奥，我不 知道这是不是......

它很接近，我们明白了。

你总是跳出框框思考。

你的想法太宏大了。

你想去太空，你决定 去太空，你做到了。

你决定要让你的火箭 回来

，你失败了，7次，8次？

• 是的，类似的东西。

• 然后它降落了。

• 我想数四次。

你是怎么想到这些想法的？

有时他们正在挑战人类的极限。

你总是在挑战人类的极限，为什么？

嗯，我……

我想 为了实现

那个特定的目标，需要什么技术解决方案 ，然后尽可能朝着这个方向取得进展

。

因此，就太空飞行而言，太空飞行所必需的关键 突破

是火箭的快速不完全可重复使用性。

就像我们的飞行器一样。

你可以想象，如果一架飞机是 一次性使用的，

几乎没有人会飞。

因为你可以买，比如说，747 可能是......

2.5 亿美元，3 亿美元， 类似的东西。

您需要其中两个来回旅行。

但是没有人会为机票支付数百万美元 。

做空中旅行。

所以，但是因为你可以重复使用飞机 数万次，

所以......

航空旅行变得更加实惠。

而且，火箭也是如此。

我们的火箭成本……

大约 6000 万美元。

因此，如果它可以在 6000 万美元中使用一次，则需要资本成本 。

但是如果可以使用一千次的话，资本成本 是六万美元。

所以，如果你能载很多人 一起飞行，

那么你可以让太空飞行

的成本与空中飞行的成本相差不远。

所以，它是真正基础的， 因为地球引力非常深。

地球有相当高的重力。

使火箭可重复使用 的难度远大于

使飞机可重复使用的难度。

这就是为什么到目前为止还没有开发出完全可重复使用的火箭的原因 。

但如果你使用最先进的材料 ，最先进的设计技术，

并且一切都做得恰到好处， 那么我相信你可以制造出完全

可重复使用的火箭。

幸运的是，如果地球引力再 强 10%，

我会说这不是不可能的。

你需要一个团队来提供 很多想法。

你如何选择你的团队？

根据什么？

好吧，老实说，我认为这往往 是一种直觉，而不是其他任何东西。

所以，当我采访某人时 ，主要问题总是相同的。

你问什么？

我说：告诉我你的人生故事。

而且，您在此过程中做出的决定

以及做出这些决定的原因。

然后 ，还告诉我你处理过的一些最困难的

问题 以及你是如何解决这些问题的。

而且， 我认为这个问题非常重要，因为……

真正解决问题的人， 他们确切地知道他们是如何解决的。

他们知道小细节。

而那些假装解决 问题的人，

他们可能会进入一个层次，然后他们 就会陷入困境。

那么，你人生中最大的挑战是什么？

人生最大的挑战？

• 没有挑战？

• 嗯，不，有很多。

我正在尝试排序哪个是最糟糕的。

我想只是想着如何度过时间。

我认为最大的挑战之一是 确保你有

一个纠正反馈循环， 然后

随着时间的推移保持这个纠正反馈循环， 即使人们不会确切地告诉

你你想听什么。

• 这非常困难。

• 是的。

时间到。

我只问你最后一个问题。

如果你允许我。

在世界政府峰会上，我们 有很多人来自... 很多年轻人

实际上 来自全球各地。

如果你对他们有建议的话，那就是 全球想要像埃隆马斯克一样的年轻人

。

你对他们有什么建议？

我认为他们可能不 应该这样。

• 你？

• 我认为这听起来比现在更好。

好的。

是的，做我并没有你想象的那么有趣 。

• 我不知道。

• 你不这么认为吗？

当然，情况可能会更糟。

但它...

我不确定我想成为我自己。

好的。

但是......

你知道，我认为我的建议是，如果你想 在事物上取得进展，

我认为最好的分析 框架，我会说未来是物理学。

我建议研究围绕物理学的思维过程 。

就像，不仅仅是方程， 方程当然很有帮助，

但物理学中的思维方式，它

是理解反直觉事物的最佳框架。

而且，你知道，总是认为 你在某种程度上是错误的

，你的目标是随着时间的推移减少错误。

人们通常犯的最大错误之一 ，我也对此感到内疚，那

就是一厢情愿。

你知道，就像你想要某件事是真实的， 即使它不是真实的。

所以你忽略了那些……

你忽略了真正的真相，因为 你想要成为真实的东西。

这是一个非常难以避免的陷阱。

就像我说的，这肯定是我 发现自己遇到的问题。

但是，如果您只是采用这种方法，那么 您总是在某种程度上是错误的

，您的目标是减少错误。

并征求批判性反馈，尤其是 来自朋友的反馈。

就像，朋友们，如果有人爱你，他们 想要给你最好的。

他们不想告诉你坏事。

所以，你必须问他们并说：我真的 很想知道。

然后他们会告诉你。

非常感谢你。

已经

... 世界政府 峰会有一个传奇人物，

他正在为人类创造未来 ，分享他的思想、他的想法、他的愿景、

挑战 和他对生活的希望，这真是太好了。

非常感谢你。

感谢您的款待。