A vision for the future of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani
it’s a huge honor to welcome to this
virtual Ted stage his Excellency dr.
Ashraf Ghani well thank you Lama alaikum
Estela it’s thank you for coming and
spending this this time with us you are
facing issues that almost no one else on
the planet is is having to face help us
understand your country dr. Ghani the
new york times in a recent article
described afghanistan in this language
the impoverished Central Asian country
once unfamiliar to many Americans that
is now symbolizes endless conflict
foreign entanglements and an incubator
of terrorist plots how would you
describe Afghanistan this malaria movie
first of all thank you for having me
thank you for your great interest in
evanston and for your friendship and my
deepest sympathies to New Yorkers my
wife and I spent five years our children
were born there so it’s our deepest
sympathies and empathise then your
attempts catches one side of the story
let me tell you the other side since
I’ve become president I’ve been 89 times
to the provinces before corona I average
seeing 4,000 of my fellow citizens a
month what do I hear from all our fans
from all walks of life men and women
girls and boys a quest for normalcy we
are striving to be normal it’s not we
who are abnormal it’s the circumstances
in which we have been
cut we are hit by turbulence left right
and center and we are attempting to
carve away forward to overcome the types
of turbulence that an interaction with
each other provide an environment of
continuous uncertainty so our goal is to
overcome this and I think with the will
of the people
we’ll be able to may I tell you some
stories please hey nineteen years ago
when I returned after 24 years I
couldn’t find five people to write we
had lost our language all our languages
today in poetry and prose novels
twopenny novels - literary criticism the
country is vibrant it’s one of the
greatest conversations that is happening
in people are engaging each other just
two epic poets one called our zoo in
Derry and one called a wall in Pashto it
produced literature that I think would
be read for the next 400 years women we
endured a gender segregation like none
but today the women of Afghanistan speak
for themselves they are ministers their
ambassadors there in all walks of life
but particularly what moves me is young
girls I before Colin I used to see them
every day and you know what they would
say half of them want to be President of
Afghanistan that’s a different
Afghanistan and this quest for normalcy
is what I’m determined to put into
practice and create the conditions the
other example we were hit by Corona
and February for the first two days
there was a panic in the market prices
in Kabul double within 24 hours we
brought it down it’s a functioning
market that can reach almost anywhere in
in 2002 every province every centre of a
province was a satellite of a
neighboring country there is a lot
that’s happening positively it’s what is
characteristic of our people is the will
to overcome the past and to move forward
and I hope poverty is real inequality is
real but we also have a very determined
population that embraces the notion of
the Republic and the notion of
citizenship
you know us we’re egalitarian we don’t
bend to each other we all need to
persuade each other well I spent several
years in Afghanistan as a as a child and
and certainly experienced that
determination of there’s a depth of real
depth to so many Afghans it was really
striking but this war dr. Ghani it’s
been 19 years I guess since this war
began
it was waged as a response to a
terrorist incident in which something
like 3,000 people died the wars cost two
trillion dollars perhaps a hundred
thousand lives mostly Afghan has it been
worth it the first issue is that the
cost of the war is vastly exaggerated
professor Anthony Cordesman is written
an excellent paper called the true cost
of war the f1 war isn’t become an
omnibus under which everything from Navy
to the Air Force together is costed but
the cost in life and treasure has been
very real to the United States
fortunately since I’ve become president
the cost in life is under 100 well it
used to be over 2,300
in the cost in treasure again has come
down when let’s leave the judgment of
whether it was worth it to the
historians because I don’t want to
discuss the past but in the cost I mean
there’s been 100 American lives lost but
but many many Afghan lives continue I
was bringing it to the American
perspective no we we are the ones were
dying and because of that I’m determined
to move forward with peace and the stars
are finally being aligned the war will
go on unless we find a political
solution keeping the war going on does
not require more than sixty million
dollars a year but the real courage the
real imagination is to bring peace in at
this moment we should be really focused
on finding a political solution to end
this specter that is haunting our lives
so the the us and the Taliban reached
this provisional agreement I guess in in
February to reduce violence was that a
productive agreement and do you see it
leading to this agreement between the
government of Afghanistan people of
Afghanistan and the Taliban in a way
that can bring actual peace well first
of all let me again say thank you to the
u.s. for the sacrifice in blood and
treasure veterans
if served in Afghanistan they’ve lived
with memories of this country and it
really I moved to tears when they tell
me they’ve left a piece of their hearts
enough ones into the gold star families
who’ve lost their loved ones at this
moment us an interest Afghanistan and
perspectives are aligned because they’re
in state the ultimate goal is a
sovereign Democratic United Afghanistan
at peace with itself in the world within
that we need to
Taliban are a fact of life Afghanistan
you cannot do away with it by force
now no nor can they do away with the
security forces and the will of the
people of a monster so we need to find
the political solution in this
environment I think we’re moving forward
to creating the conditions for a direct
dialogue between the Taliban and us in
this phase will hopefully move us to
enough unknown enough one let peace
process where we need to make peace the
reduction of violence is head to aspect
in terms of massive conflict that has
been reduced but the cost in life’s is
still very high on average 30 to 35
casualties a day from our security
forces up to 270 fatalities and up to 70
casualty so it’s imperative particularly
in the environment of Corona that we go
for a humanitarian ceasefire in start
and travel on the condition that Taliban
prisoners be released and our prisoners
be released is moving forward I’m
hopeful that soon will begin direct
talks what does it take if the remaining
US forces are withdrawn before you have
a peace agreement in place our security
forces are doing 83% and prior to the
ceasefire in the reduction of violence
to operations so the number of your
forces is now down to about eight
thousand six hundred the question is not
what will happen to us the US should
consider what will happen to it in terms
of the threat of ongoing threat of
terrorism we do not comment on the
sovereign decisions of the United Stated
as president from two years ago that any
schedule of withdrawal that he chooses
of course is acceptable to us
support structures are important a
gradual systematic condition based
approach would be in both our interest
but should that happen
of course the responsibility for for
defending of understand and for securing
it lies on our shoulders and I’m
delighted that every single member of
our security forces is a volunteer there
is no one conscripted there is no one
force and our Special Forces or second
to none in the region and our Air Force
is been tripled we’ll be able to
maintain ourselves but it could change
it could adversely affect the chances of
peace and I hope that we will be able to
move forward so it is a systematic
process rather than a sudden process
many Afghans I believe including you I
reject the Taliban strident
interpretation of Islam I mean when
values are that different is there any
real prospect of long-term stable peace
well again I hope you remember President
Lincoln’s statement a woman was
criticizing him for making peace and he
said he said you’re making peace with
your enemies he said isn’t the best way
of turning the enemies into friends so
first is the the story of ceasefire of
2018 tens of thousands of Taliban mixed
with the rest of that ones you know
there wasn’t a single incident of
lynching or spitting or insulting of the
Tulpa our society is a consensus on
making peace our values need to be
reframed from war to peace and the
environment of war values become more
pronounced towards violence you’ve seen
ever
the veterans their problems no matter
what type of country they come from the
POE stress disorder etcetera common
phenomena so here piece must be mapped
properly I’ve spent a lifetime studying
peace processes over a hundred
agreements in preparation there are good
peace processes and they’re bad ones
process matters
the key is what’s the goal and how to
reach agreement in then to give the
implementation sufficient time the key
to future values is removal of arms from
dictation once we interact I think we’ll
be able to renew our bonds because in
the past also we’ve had periods of
radical versus tolerant our tradition
you know is Mawlana froom famously known
as Rumi and he has a verse that I’d like
to cite he says with will fire becomes
sweet water and without will even water
becomes fire this is not easy but it is
necessary in the last issue who’s the
winner of the war there is no winner but
who’s the winner of the piece the people
of Afghanistan and the people of the
region we should all become acquired the
humility to say that we will put our
people first and really arrive it weighs
and you know us with several thousand
years of ways of mediation arbitration
coming together there’s a large
repertoire for peacemaking and I hope we
can mobilize it and use it yes there is
this extraordinary tradition in
Afghanistan of face-to-face meetings
Jirga meetings right when I had the
great
honor to stay in your home eight years
ago when I was in Kabul the centerpiece
of your home was this beautiful area of
a rectangle area with it with a lovely
carpet and and back support so that
twenty people could kind of sit in a
circle well it was really a rectangle
but facing each other and I witnessed
you having these face-to-face
conversations with people some of whom
disagreed with you some of whom
supported you but the power of that was
extraordinary to witness do you can you
see a time in in the next 3 3 to 5 years
say where you you will sit in a circle
face-to-face with Taliban perhaps and
try to bridge and get to a point of
understanding is that imaginable
absolutely not within three years
I hope within three months we are
determined to move forward with this
opportunity this is a window it’s a
narrow window it can shut but we want to
open it and what you’ve seen what you
sign my house I have done in
presidential grounds with thousands of
people prior to Corona I saw about 4,000
people of Kabul to discuss the city of
Kabul in the province of Kabul for six
weeks 600 to 800 people were come we are
inegalitarian people we cannot be
dictated we can only be persuaded and
persuasion means that all policies have
to be done from ground up and then top
down that’s the combination things that
are borrowed uncritically will only
produce counter-reaction
we have a saying you can persuade enough
one to go to hell but you cannot compel
him to go to heaven he has to be
persuaded
it’s a the final series of the TV show
homeland was located in Afghanistan and
featured tense negotiations evolving the
u.s. the Afghan government the Taliban
Pakistan
did you see that series and did it bear
any relation to reality
unfortunately no not I’m a compulsive
reader but I don’t watch my 16 hour days
but let me take the question peace
making is no longer just an amateur art
form it really has become a discipline
two of my friends that have been working
very closely
William Mori and Jonathan Powell I’ve
done an enormous amount to turn this
into discipline the German Birkhoff
foundation there are others in
particularly a recent book on
Kissinger’s diplomacy distinctively
William Murray has come with two concept
one is called Batna or the best
alternative to negotiation we need to
understand that if you reduce the option
of war peacemaking will move forward the
second is called the zone of possible
agreement we have to ever approach to
bridging in there is work at the table
there’s work off the table the work of
the table means bringing the region the
international community other key
stakeholders my own take from this is we
need if we define the objectives instead
of moving blind forward to have what is
called the in state or the objective
then we can avoid a lot of those
tensions in others because the classic
now the biography of late Holbrooke is
there was the act of improvisation this
is not yes it is discipline we need to
have a lot more discipline so the
instruments come together and the voices
could come around the keys of one’s have
had a very strong sense of nationalism
an identity it’s time to bridge our gaps
in come together in in create a common
future that is now TDC but it is
absolutely imperative speaking of which
you’ve fought to disputed elections with
Abdullah Abdullah he is now leading the
High Council of national reconciliation
I guess playing a key role in the
negotiation with the Taliban have you
been able to build a productive
relationship with him
absolutely we were singing in Pashto
says Houlihan colada and below says your
tongue is either a fortress or a curse
maulana puts it better
o tongue you’re an endless treasure o
tank you’re also in endless disease
I’ve never responded negatively to dr.
Abdullah either in the course of 2014 or
2019 campaign or during the years we
have resumed a very productive
relationship and we are meeting with
mutual respect and courtesy it’s also
the question that now is not the
agreement of the government of national
unity dr. Abdullah is no rule directly
in running the government I’m blessed
with colleagues vice president Sally
vice president mr. doesn’t that the role
is of course his colleagues will be
participating in the cabinet but the
this is within the peace is an area of
agreement within us because the two key
parameters are one we should secure the
participation of the Taliban within the
Republic second elections must be the
ultimate determinant of the future of
leadership in evanston dr. Abdullah and
I share common ground and we are working
well together can you help us understand
the key issues at stake in your
relationship with Pakistan specifically
do you feel that they’re doing enough to
put pressure on the Taliban on the
Taliban to properly
engage in the peace process well until
the visit of the chief of staff of
Pakistan’s army general Berto at
Afghanistan they were uncertainties and
the past I don’t want to discuss
everybody knows and mutual suspicion etc
etc now we think we are converging on a
shared vision in that the first
component of that is that a stable
democratic Afghanistan and hopefully
prosperous is necessary for Pakistan to
be stable and democratic and peaceful
second that ways of the past to think
that Afghanistan is a part of strategic
depth or a satellite of Pakistan or not
possible not feasible so here
convergence on a sovereign Democratic
constitutional Iran Afghanistan is
important we on our part or clear we’ve
I’ve talked articulated a new doctrine
of our foreign policy I call it multi
alignment maximum number of friends
minimum number of opponents we don’t
want to give part of the disputes of our
other partners we will not permit our
soil to be used against others but
you’ll also expect that others will not
use their soil against us I think that
Pakistan’s internal reflections make
this a possibility the Taliban have
frankly been a cost to Pakistan without
considerable benefits in at this moment
the other issue is that regions
developed not countries so India is
going to be having a very important
issue for our economic well-being in we
for linking Pakistan to Central Asia in
caucuses the areas of convergence or
becoming much greater than divergence in
words we’ve made a lot of progress
we hope there
this will translate into a very positive
role that positive role is what we asked
for because competition among nations
and particularly post corona environment
and the environmental crisis that South
Asia faces is going to be a lose-lose
while Pakistan is made calculation if
there were peace in Afghanistan and our
joint connectivity regional connectivity
agenda we’ll realize there could be up
to 2% additional rate of growth and
buckston we’re going to have questions
from the audience in one minute but I
just you mentioned corona virus there
again talk about what you’re wrestling
with there because in a country with
with a lot of poverty that the decision
on how much you shut down you know
that’s a harder call to make than then
in a richer country how do you how do
you come up with the right strategy to
fight this what have you been doing and
and what do you need from the rest of
the world to help that fight be better
well the first is we were one of the
first countries to become fully aware
and this is really thanks Terry Marathi
friends in January 6th Annan give a
share the briefing I was giving a
keynote address in Abu Dhabi
he was the first individual to use the
term the corona economy and hit full
analysis developed in terms of scenarios
their future orientation was so when the
first cases in Iran happened we prepared
mr. Anderson we were having from
February 24 the first cases to March
21st now rolls up to 10,000 people a day
coming from Iran there was a panic among
of ones in Iran so they rushed we moved
in to analyze the phases so there five
phases awareness diffusion adversity
relief recovery the exact
timing of course was unknown but we
responded with lockdowns which brought
foot structural our chip in situational
but compared to our all others you know
figures given that we don’t have testing
and tracing unfortunately the united
nation agencies have not been able to
deliver on the promises even though the
money came from the World Bank they have
had constraints total deaths have been
four hundred ninety one until now in the
faces of diffusion were slow we had very
little till the third week of May the
last week of May adversity started so
now we are in a phase the other part of
it is we started distributing bread for
the first time in our history to all our
cities now we are doing a major program
shortly of distributing a package of
basic food to almost 90% of that one
population and several phases
affordability is an issue for us but in
terms of what we ask it’s knowledge it’s
sharing of experience and from the
philanthropic community its sponsor
enough one family and work with us to
knowledge networks because now we have
the capability to the digital system I’m
consulting more intensely because of the
telecom capability all aggressive wants
them if we can work together because
what makes us special for a study one we
are at the gateway to Central Asia into
India a tooth to the subcontinent
Pakistan in India so in terms of
diffusion it’s not a nation it’s a
entire continent that is it issue second
the number above sixty is only three per
and of the population so we have one of
the youngest populations how profile the
works and then the urban is about thirty
percent rule a seventy percent this
profile
I think would allow for the type of
working true solutions our main
challenge is going to be winter if
Corona continues to the winter then
given our small houses and our
traditions of thousand years of hitting
food together breaking bread together
will become an obstacle so working
through in here particularly women and
women let’s households if particular
needs and working with us through
globally to be able to mobilize for this
our society is mobilized with enormous
generosity people have really shared
half of the grin in the private sector
is been marvelous in terms of both
contributing to the market stability but
also with the deep sense of charity if
it could be joined with Regional
Planning and global coordination
particularly with the vaccine comes that
we are not forgotten because we will not
be able to pay early I’m hearing you say
that could be a national strategy in
response to covered nineteen I think
there might be a few countries who might
want to borrow you for a few months dr.
Ghani
we’re gonna go to okay we’re gonna go to
questions from the community let’s get
the first one up there okay so I don’t
know if you can see that dr. garner the
peace process is a triangulation between
your government Taliban in the US but
others have political economic political
interest in Afghanistan China for
instance what is the role of China in
Afghanistan today thank you
the stake that sir is this the coalition
for war was limited I hope too
but the broadest coalition for peace
everybody can be a winner in peace China
is a very significant paper we have a
short a small important but very
significant China’s market is essential
for us thanks to is Pakistan opening to
us which I’d like to thank myself in
particular we now reach ina a week it
used to take us three months in terms of
investment of when a son wants to be a
location for investment China should it
wish in terms of the peace process we
would like that discussions of the peace
not to take place in one country but to
move so we can have the maximum number
of stakeholders the most significant
thing is what I put to President Xi
during the Shanghai conference in II
immediately in dorset we want to be a
platform for regional and global
cooperation not a site for rivalries
that is in the interest in China lastly
is a major stakeholder in containing
terrorism because that threat to that is
felt real and it’s an area of
cooperation we’ll take one more
community question it’s an honor
for you today personally thank you for
the for grounding the peacemaking is a
discipline can you share more about how
every human being connectively practice
the discipline of peacemaking in our
daily lives and in our nation’s
absolutely because the first thing is
mutual respect you know two types of
conversations have been differentiated
by professor Argyris one of the key
practitioners of this one is called type
1 listening where one just repeats one’s
position and doesn’t hear the other side
type two is to really have a
conversation where we listen what is in
shortage and our daily interactions is
capacity to listen we talk too much we
listen too little and this is crucial
second is our basic humanity when all
forms of differences are socially and
culturally constructed there’s no such
thing as ethnic or linguistic or racial
ground Franz boas the founder of
cultural anthropology demonstrated to
measuring heads and noses that migrants
Italians and Irish against whom there
was enormous prejudice were not
different so it’s important second
hierarchy in participation need to be
balanced a lot of things need to be done
by community I’m delighted for instance
that as an architect of a program called
national solidarity now this isn’t your
turn I have one villages now have 50 50
50 percent of our village councils are
led by women 50 by men gender is an
extremely important area because women
bring a new perspective an enriched
perspective and we are complementary to
each other it’s finding common ground
that allows us to live because all a lot
of times particularly within ideological
communities with their religious or
secular small differences or exaggerated
to such an extent that makes hearing
each other impossible now I hear the
word tribes mutually exclusive through
their digital systems applied to the
United States it’s such a tragedy we
need to move forward and come together
dr. Gandhi as a boy I remember just the
beauty of Afghanistan I remember walking
by the incredible blue lakes of Bundy
Aamir skipping stones because there’s
all this flat slate there so many deep
memories there parts of Afghanistan that
tourists have no idea about is there any
prospect that in the next years that
they will have a chance to visit again
in peace and confidence that they will
just have a beautiful experience in a
beautiful land
I much hope so during my six years I’ve
had a two-hour break and that wasn’t bad
damage and you know you remember the
Warm Springs to because it’s a
combination of intensely cold water plus
these worm Springs that makes it a
delight we are expanding in one of my
quiz is for carbon trading to reforest
Afghanistan I think we could go probably
to up to 500 million trees that would be
an enormous change in the lives of
people and those people who were part of
the initiative of one trillion trees the
firms and others we invited but also in
Kabul and Parwan in Herat and the Condor
and others we have done in intense work
to renew our cultural heritage you
remember Parma the valley about 20
kilometres west of Kabul its villas its
structures from 1880 to 1930 were ground
to dust
it’s Gardens have been destroyed we’ve
restored everything and now it’s a
national park we are expanding this and
my goal is to create one National Park
in every single of the districts of the
country the beauty is truly moving I’ve
been to all call every single province
of Afghanistan from five times to 20
times and I’m moved by the sheer beauty
of what’s there and we hope to share it
we could have up to two million tourists
a year if we had peace and can you
comment briefly on what the business
opportunities are in Afghanistan what
kinds of investment or entrepreneurial
activity would you welcome well first is
the power sector Pakistan needs probably
around fifty thousand megawatts of of
power this is word bank calculations for
its hundredth anniversary to move from a
lower middle income to an upper middle
calm country in Central Asia is the key
so power we’ve created all the
opportunities for the private sector to
be in transmission in production and
distribution we also have this amazing
potential 220,000 megawatts of solar
80,000 megawatts of wind in 23,000
megawatts of hydro coal we are not
touching at this moment so power sector
second or pipelines natural gas going to
India is crucial not only just Pakistan
but beyond to to India getting here is
insurance and guarantees working on
insurance and guarantees is the crucial
enabling mechanism the second area is
mining we have the
just item deposits one of the largest
copper deposits in gold will be a player
in talk we can be one of the 10 players
we have over a billion tons of marble of
40 colors we could just to China we
could have an export of 1 billion
dollars a year precious stones again gas
is beginning to look very good oil could
be sufficient so small in medium type
companies that take risks and look for
high rewards agriculture is beginning we
have just surpassed 1 billion dollars in
export I was able to double our exports
we have created now the infrastructure
and in the systems in equally the
digital economy is the future so digital
services we are focusing completely on
on the new economy to be able to to
create jobs and as I said the other is
environment water we are harnessing 6
billion cubic meters of water just in
our western borders but all together we
have to harness about 22 billion cubic
meters environmental crisis in South
Asia in Central Asia and West Asia is
not a warning it’s a forthcoming reality
war here in water management is going to
be an extremely big issue of
coordination and the other is the
railways transport will be crucial
because we missed the 19th century
transport revolution we privatize the
fiber optics we’re looking every area
where regional national and global firms
will come we are interested in the last
point is that don’t look at that one
market look at it as a platform for
regional cooperation because we have one
of the lowest tariffs
it’s for our exports from to China to
India to Europe and others work the
kiyose value chains and supply chains
and anything that can be done there and
you have one of the youngest populations
on earth with willingness to work
extremely hard for good money an inner
entrepreneurial population to boot that
you understand dr. Ghani Alice we are we
are out of time I I thank you for this
this vision it’s an exciting vision of
what Afghanistan could be and and I’ve
just whenever I hear you I’m struck both
by your eloquence and and your courage
you know you’ve you’ve lived all these
years under threat of assassination I
guess and I I honestly don’t know how
you find the strength to do what you do
but that but thank you for what you’re
doing and I think everyone in this
community wishes you and Afghanistan a
beautiful future enough of this pain and
this this war in this fighting enough
now we wish you better times ahead sir
well thank you for me it’s not courage
because I don’t know I don’t know how to
define it you know when they send
rockets I open my chest and I said I’m
not wearing a bulletproof that was my
inauguration and it becomes a national
gesture what I don’t give to is fear I
have no fear I have lived a life I’ve
lived multiple lives in this life is
dedicated to service what inspires me is
the decency the incredible generosity
the sense of appreciation when a young
girl looks at you and says you’ve made
it possible for me to do big dream to be
President how what price
you put on that when a widow embraces
you and says I’ve lost three sons but
I’ll give the other two we are a hopeful
Society what makes me wake up with hope
no matter what the previous day has been
is that I know I have a master my
masters are the people of Evanston for
they are the ones to be appreciated I am
just simple a human being with all the
hopes and challenges but they want a
translator a translator that can hear
them that can assemble it back and in
our just end with a story I went to or
his gun one of our poorest provinces in
2003 - - and I listened to the people
the usual way that you’ve described
sitting all of us and then I said how do
you want it done and they started
laughing and I was taken aback because
I’ve gone after 24 years nice and that
vibe made him a cultural mistake they
said you don’t know who you are and I
was puzzled I said Who am I
they said we need to during the collapse
of the Taliban and coming of the
Americans we used to listen to you every
day on the BBC and say next day and the
MAS get together and say a chef when he
said this go get it done you’ve come
back it’s trust this trust is really
fundamental it’s inspiring and thank you
for your support
we count on it as always and I’m looking
very much forward to welcome you back
Afghanistan has been home to you and
again we would like it to be home to you
and to millions of our friends thank you
so much dr. Ghani for those words and
for this conversation together thank you
thank you good night