The secret landscape buried under the Antarctic ice sheet

[Music]

what if i told you

that the shape of the bedrock buried

under thousands of meters of ice was the

key to future sea level rise

what you see in this photo is a glacial

fjord it’s a fjord that has been carved

by a glacier over the past tens of

thousands of years and is now exposed

because the ice has retreated in this

region and this is the sort of landscape

that we expect to see under the rest of

the aishi but it’s just very difficult

to see through the ice and see what the

standscape looks like

so today i will tell you how we

accidentally found a way to unveil this

landscape and how we found the deepest

point on land

so how did we get there i’m a

glaciologist i make computer models

in order to make predictions of sea

level rise and how the ice sheets are

affected by climate change and have been

doing this for about 13 years

while it is clear that sea level is

rising today we can measure it

we don’t know to this day whether the

ice sheets are going to

catastrophically collapse over the next

100 200 years it’s just very difficult

to do there is a lot of uncertainty in

sea level predictions and it remains too

uncertain for policy makers to make

informed decisions about how to cope

with rising seas

to understand how the ice sheets respond

to climate change we must understand why

they are there in the first place

and it is so cold in greenland and

antarctica that

most of the snow that falls every year

on the ice sheet doesn’t melt away and

so year after year this no this snow

slowly becomes solid ice we may think of

the ice sheets and glaciers as

big pieces of ice cubes that don’t move

but they actually move they flow it

deforms under its own weight like a very

viscous fluid like a thick syrup in a

way so what you see in this video

is a compilation of photos that were

taken a few hours apart and you see two

years of that compilation so you can see

that the ice is flowing downhill like a

river

so eventually this ice that is formed by

the transformation of snow into ice

is transported to the coast in the form

of fast rivers of ice that we call ice

streams and eventually this ice melts or

there’s the formation of icebergs that

end up melting in the ocean

so if we want sea level not to change if

you if we don’t want sea level to change

we need the perfect balance between new

eyes formed by the slow transformation

of snow into ice and the loss of ice

through icebergs and melting if these

two processes balance one another then

we don’t see sea level change

but what we’ve observed over the past

two three decades is that

our glaciers are accelerating they’re

putting more icebergs into the ocean and

also in the arctic in greenland we have

warmer summers longer summers a lot more

melt on the surface so overall the

balance now we have about the same

amount of snow as before or maybe a

little less and a lot more mass loss so

that’s why the ice sheets are shrinking

now there is an important point that i

want to make

the rate at which the ice sheets are

losing mass depends to a large extent on

the shape of the bedrock and there is

two reasons for that one that’s fairly

simple is

one reasons for which that explains why

our ice sheets has been have been

accelerating like this is that there is

warm water in the ocean that used to

stay away from the ice it used to

to not interact with it and now because

of climate change it’s we have warm

water intrusion into fjords under the

ice where we have flowing ice and it’s

melting it from below

and so you can imagine that if the bed

is shallow if we have big ridges

mountain wrenches that may block this

warm water that is at depth that is

under 300 400 meters it may block this

warm water so the glaciers that have a

big bump a big mountain range in front

of them may be protected

but more importantly the shape of the

bedrock

can make a difference between a slow

gradual retreat

or a fast unstoppable retreat

and the reason for that is that the ice

sheets

are they they weigh you know a lot it’s

a lot of mass and so over time it has

pushed the land below and in the

interior of the ice sheet many times

it’s it’s the bed is below sea level and

you may have that configuration that we

call retrograde bed slope where the bed

gets deeper as we move inland and that’s

a configuration that we know isn’t

stable if a glacier starts to retreat in

a region where the bed gets deeper and

deeper

there is no stopping it it’s going to

continue to do so even if we stop

burning fossil fuel

so we need to know where the bed is

retrograde we need to know where we have

bumps and ridges that may stop that

retreat otherwise if we don’t have a

good representation of the bed there is

no way we can make accurate predictions

of sea level rise

but it’s incredibly difficult to see

through thick eyes it’s just very

difficult to know what it looks like but

we need that information i’m lying a

little bit there is one way to see

through the eyes that’s pretty powerful

and it’s basically based on radar so you

mount a big radar under the wings of an

airplane and

it emits a signal that will penetrate

the ice and when it comes back we can

interpret this as some sort of x-ray so

here um in that image you can see the

air you can see how deep the ice is we

have incredible details in the bedrock

so it’s really a wonderful method

but we only get information directly

underneath the aircraft there is no

information about the sites

what you’re seeing here

all these colorful lines are all the

lines for which we have measurements of

the bed

so this represents 50 years of

international campaigns very costly

international campaigns to try to

determine how deep the ice is

and you may wonder why is he complaining

we have so much data but

this is austria

we have to remember that these ice

sheets are huge and there are many

places where we don’t have any

measurements for within a radius of tens

hundreds of kilometers

and that’s making our life as modelers

difficult

i’m going to talk to you a little bit

about models because as i told you

earlier i’m a modeler and when i was a

graduate student

i developed with two colleagues a new

ice sheet model that was supposed to be

better than anything that had been done

before more accurate with better physics

and to put it in a nutshell a model a

numerical model is based on fundamental

physical principles like the

conservation of mass conservation of

energy

and

basically the conservation of mass if

there is one bad summer where there is a

lot of melts the conservation of mass

tells us by how much we should lower the

surface topography of the ice sheet so

in the model

we we were ready to run it it was a

beautiful model we were ready to run at

a higher resolution than ever before

and we ran it forward but greenland was

gaining mass when clearly when you look

at every single observation it’s

supposed to lose mass

so we were really

like what is going on the model is wrong

is it a bug in the code is it the

physics is it are we missing an

important physical process are we you

know what can it be and it’s very

difficult to narrow down

why the model is not behaving the way it

should

so we spent months

trying one by one every single single

hypothesis hypothesis

and we had to come to um the idea that

it was the poor representation of the

bad topography especially where we did

not have measurements we what we had was

not good enough was blocking the model

from flushing that ice towards the ocean

and as a result the ice was gaining mass

so we were like okay what do we do we’re

not going to spend thousands of

airplanes um and measure the whole of

the ice sheet within a resolution of you

know a few hundred meters it’s not going

to be possible so what do we do

and

by accident a little bit we developed

that method basically in

in in the mass conservation approach

what we do is we look at bi speed we can

get that from from satellite it’s very

easy to know how fast the ice is flowing

we combine that with ice depth and that

gives us

the thinning rates so by how much the

eyes get thicker or thinner and we have

that eureka moment we thought okay

we know that mass conservation is good i

mean it’s a physical principle that’s

always verified we have high speed we

have the thinning rates from satellite

interferometry we know where the ice is

thickening or thinning so why don’t we

move these terms around and say let’s

use the same physics but

our unknown instead of computing the

thinning rates we now compute the ice

depth and so we were able to use that

method to fill in the gaps where we did

not have data we where we did not have

any measurements but based on that

physical principle and on combining

other data sets that were not used in

the past to try to map the bed

so after

years of sweat and many sleepless nights

we had i managed to map the whole ice

sheet of greenland and antarctica at an

unprecedented level of resolution

so i’m going to show you here a few

results

this animation shows you the west coast

of greenland

so

to your right i believe is the ice

velocity from satellite and then to the

left we peel off the ice and you can see

the bed so everything that is blue means

that the bed is below sea level but

there is no ocean there remember that

it’s it’s a fjord that’s full of ice

and what you see is we have these fjords

these valleys that we did not know about

before for many of them

extend sometimes for tens or hundreds of

kilometers

and so what this means is as the ice

retreats

because the bed the these valleys are so

deep they will still be in contact with

that warm water that is at depth

under antarctica

the landscape is pretty different

we don’t have that many narrow entrance

valleys what we have in many places are

these very wide valleys big basins that

are below sea level you see how

everything here is blue so we have a

pile of ice on top it’s grounded ice

but the bed is below sea level and this

is a glacier we’re particularly worried

about to its glacier because it’s been

thinning and retreating and accelerating

over the past decades

and you see how upstream the bed gets

deeper retrograde bed slopes

if it starts getting into that region

there is no stopping it

in east antarctica a lot of the bed is

above sea level but we found a few

a few troughs a few valleys that we

didn’t know about this one is nina’s

glacier but there is another glacier

denman glacier

that people scientists knew it was deep

what we never knew we’ve never been able

to figure out how deep it was the radar

that people were using

could not detect how deep the bed was

because it was just so deep

and so by combining these data sets

together the conservation of mass we

were able to map for the first time this

deep canyon that you’re seeing here and

it’s more than 3.5 kilometers below sea

level

so there are places that are deeper

under the ocean but this is considered a

continent a continent this is land ice

so that’s the deepest point on land that

has ever been mapped

so

overall we

uncovered the landscape hidden beneath

the eyes by combining

data sets together by looking at physics

by looking at remote sensing from

satellite interferometry by using

modeling

we combine disciplines together

and when it comes to climate change

we’re facing many challenges and we have

to be creative we have to have more

collaborations more cooperation across

disciplines in order to overcome the

challenges we’re facing

we discovered major features we

discovered canyons mountain ranges

valleys that we did not know were there

and they have major implications on

future sea level rise but if the shape

of the bed preconditions their stability

now we know which region may be more

vulnerable to climate change which one

may be more protected we have to

remember that it is our actions today

that will determine the fate of these

ice sheets they’re not melting because

of the bed they’re melting because of

the concentration of carbon dioxide in

the atmosphere

so yes our future lies underneath the

eyes but we should do everything in our

power to keep the ice there so let’s try

to keep this landscape hidden for as

long as we can

and reduce future sea level rise for the

next generations thank you

you

[音乐

] 如果我告诉你

,埋在数千米冰层下的基岩的形状是

未来海平面上升的关键,

你在这张照片中看到的是一个冰川

峡湾,它是一个被冰川雕刻而成的峡湾

过去的

几万年,现在暴露出来,

因为该地区的冰已经退缩了

,这是

我们期望在艾希的其余部分看到的那种景观,

很难透过冰看到什么

今天我将告诉你我们

是如何意外找到一种方法来揭示这个

景观的,以及我们是如何找到

陆地上最深处的,

那么我们是如何到达那里的?我是一名

冰川学家,我制作计算机模型

以预测

海平面上升以及冰盖如何

受到气候变化的影响并且已经

这样做了大约 13 年

虽然很明显今天海平面正在

上升 我们可以测量它

我们今天还不知道

冰盖是否正在移动 到

在接下来的 100200 年内发生灾难性的崩溃

很难做到

海平面预测存在很多不

确定性,对于决策者来说,

对于如何

应对海平面上升

以了解冰盖如何响应的明智决策仍然太不确定了

对于气候变化,我们必须首先了解

它们为什么会出现

在格陵兰岛和

南极洲,

以至于每年

落在冰盖上的大部分雪都没有融化,

所以年复一年没有这场雪

慢慢地变成固态冰 我们可以

把冰原和冰川想象成

大块的冰块,它们不会移动,

但它们实际上会移动它们会流动,

它会在自身重量下变形,就像一种非常

粘稠的液体,就像浓稠的糖浆

一样 你在这个视频中看到的

是相隔几个小时拍摄的照片汇编,你看到了

两年的汇编,所以你可以

看到冰像河流一样顺着山坡流下,

所以最终 是

由雪转化为冰

形成

的冰以快速的冰河的形式运送到海岸,我们称之为冰

流,最终这些冰融化,

或者形成

最终在海洋中融化的冰山,

所以如果

如果我们不希望海平面发生变化,我们希望

海平面不变 彼此那么

我们看不到海平面变化,

但我们在过去二三十年观察到的

是,

我们的冰川正在加速,它们正在

将更多的冰山放入海洋,

而且在格陵兰岛的北极地区,我们的

夏季温暖更长 夏天

地表融化得更多,所以总的来说,

现在我们

的雪量和以前

差不多,或者可能少一点,质量损失更多,所以

这就是为什么现在那里的冰盖正在缩小的原因。

重要的一点是,我

想让

冰盖失去质量的速度在很大程度上

取决于基岩的形状,这有

两个原因,一个相当

简单的

原因就是一个原因,它解释了为什么

我们的 冰盖一直在

加速,就像这样是因为

海洋中有温暖的水曾经

远离它

曾经不与它相互作用的冰,现在

由于气候变化,我们有温暖的

水侵入下面的峡湾

冰,我们有流动的冰,

它从下面融化

,所以你可以想象,如果床

很浅,如果我们有大山脊,

山扳手可能会挡住

深度

低于 300 400 米的温水,它可能会挡住它

温暖的水,因此

前面有一个大山脉的冰川

可能会受到保护,

但更重要的是,基岩的形状

可以在缓慢

逐渐撤退

或快速停止之间产生差异 ble撤退

,原因是冰盖

是它们的重量,你知道很多,它

的质量很大,所以随着时间的推移,它已经多次

将土地推

到冰盖的下方和内部,

这是床 在海平面以下,

您可能会遇到我们

称之为逆行河床斜坡的配置,

当我们向内陆移动时,河床会变得更深,

如果冰川开始

在河床变深的区域退缩,我们知道这种配置是不稳定的

更深的

,即使我们停止燃烧化石燃料,它也会继续这样做,

所以我们需要知道床在哪里

逆行,我们需要知道我们在哪里有

可能阻止这种退缩的颠簸和山脊,

否则如果我们不这样做”

没有很好的床位表示

我们无法准确

预测海平面上升

但是很难

通过厚厚的眼睛看到它只是

很难知道它的样子但

我们需要这些信息我

稍微躺下 有一种

通过眼睛看东西的方法非常强大

,它基本上基于雷达,所以你

在飞机机翼下安装一个大雷达

它发出的信号会

穿透冰层,当它回来时,我们 可以

将其解释为某种 X 射线,

所以在这张图片中,您可以看到

空气,您可以看到冰的深度 我们

在基岩中有令人难以置信的细节,

所以这确实是一种很棒的方法,

但我们只能直接

在下面获取信息 飞机 没有

关于站点的信息

你在这里看到的

所有这些彩色

线条都是我们

测量床的所有线条

所以这代表了 50 年的

国际运动 非常昂贵的

国际运动试图

确定冰的深度 是的

,你可能想知道他为什么抱怨

我们有这么多数据,

但这是奥地利,

我们必须记住,这些

冰盖很大,而且有很多

地方我们没有任何

数据 几十百公里半径范围内

的保证,这让我们作为建模师的生活

变得困难

我要和你

谈谈模型,因为正如我之前告诉你的

那样,我是一名建模师,当我还是一名

研究生时,

我 与两位同事开发了一个新的

冰盖模型,该模型应该

比以前所做的任何事情都

更好,并且具有更好的物理性能,

并且简而言之,一个模型一个

数值模型基于基本

物理原理,例如

质量守恒

能量

守恒,基本上是质量守恒,如果

有一个糟糕的夏天,那里有

很多融化,质量守恒

告诉我们应该降低

冰盖的表面地形多少,所以

我们准备好的模型中 运行它,这是一个

漂亮的模型,我们已经准备好以

比以往更高的分辨率

运行它,我们向前运行它,但是

当你清楚地看到每一个时,格陵兰岛的质量正在增加

观察它

应该会失去质量,

所以我们真的很

喜欢模型上发生的事情是错误

的,它是代码中的一个错误,它是

物理学,是我们错过了一个

重要的物理过程,我们你

知道它可能是什么,这是非常

很难缩小

为什么模型没有按照应有的方式运行,

所以我们花了几个月的时间

逐个尝试每一个

假设假设

,我们不得不得出这样的想法,即

这是不良地形的不良表现,

尤其是在我们这样做的地方

没有测量,我们所拥有的还

不够好,阻止模型

将冰冲向海洋

,结果冰的质量越来越大,

所以我们很好,我们该怎么办,我们

不会花费数千

架飞机 嗯,

在你知道几百米的分辨率内测量整个冰盖,

是不可能的,所以我们该怎么办

偶然地,我们开发了

这个方法,基本上是

在米 屁股保护方法

我们所做的是我们看双速我们可以

从卫星上得到它很

容易知道冰流动的速度

我们将它与冰深度相结合,这

给了

我们变薄的速度,所以眼睛得到了多少

更厚或更薄,我们有

那个我们认为好的尤里卡时刻

我们知道质量守恒是好的我的

意思是这是一个总是被验证的物理原理

我们有高速我们

有来自卫星干涉测量的变薄率

我们知道冰在哪里

变厚或变薄所以 为什么我们不

移动这些术语,说让我们

使用相同的物理但

我们未知的而不是计算

变薄率,我们现在计算冰

深度,因此我们能够使用该

方法来填补我们没有的空白

我们没有

任何测量数据,但基于该

物理原理并结合

过去未使用的其他数据集来尝试绘制床,

因此经过

多年的汗水和许多

我们度过了不眠之夜,我设法以前所未有的分辨率绘制了整个格陵兰岛

和南极洲的冰盖,

所以我将在这里向您展示一些

结果,

这个动画向您展示

了格陵兰岛的西海岸,

所以

我相信在您的右边是

卫星上的冰速度,然后

向左我们剥去冰,你可以

看到床,所以所有蓝色的东西都

意味着床低于海平面但

那里没有海洋记住

这是一个充满冰的峡湾

你看到的是我们有这些峡湾

这些山谷我们以前不知道

因为它们中的许多

有时会延伸数十或数百

公里所以这意味着随着冰的

退缩

因为这些山谷的床

很深它们 仍然会接触

到在南极洲深处深处的温暖海水

景观非常不同

我们没有那么多狭窄的入口

山谷我们在许多地方拥有的是

这些非常宽的山谷b ig

低于海平面的盆地 你看到

这里的一切都是蓝色的,所以我们

在上面有一堆冰,它是接地的冰,

但床低于海平面,这

是一个冰川,我们特别

担心它的冰川,因为它一直

在过去的几十年里变薄、后退

和加速,你会看到上游的床如何变得

更深,

如果它开始进入那个地区

,那么

在南极洲东部没有停止它很多床都

在海平面以上,但我们发现了一些

几个低谷 几个山谷 我们

不知道 这是尼娜的

冰川 但还有另一个冰川

登曼

冰川 人们科学家知道它很深

我们从未知道 我们从未

能够弄清楚它有多深

人们使用的雷达

无法探测到床有多深,

因为它实在是太深了

,所以通过将这些数据集

结合在一起,质量守恒

我们能够第一次绘制出这个

深峡谷 你在这里看到,

它比海平面低 3.5 公里

以上,

所以有些地方

在海洋下面更深,但这被认为是一个

大陆 一个大陆 这是陆地冰,

所以这是迄今为止绘制的陆地上最深的点。

我们

发现了隐藏在眼睛下方的景观

通过将

数据集组合在一起 通过查看物理

通过查看卫星干涉测量的遥感

通过使用

建模

我们将学科结合

在一起 当涉及到气候变化时,

我们面临着许多挑战,我们

必须 创造性 我们必须有更多的

合作 跨

学科的更多合作以克服

我们面临的挑战

我们发现了主要特征 我们

发现

了我们不知道的峡谷 山脉 山谷

它们对

未来的海平面上升有重大影响 但是如果

床的形状决定了它们的稳定性

现在我们知道哪个地区可能更

容易受到气候变化的影响 看看哪一个

可能更受保护 我们必须

记住,正是我们今天的行动

将决定这些冰盖的命运,

它们不会因为床而融化,因为

它们正在融化,因为大气

中的二氧化碳浓度很高,

所以 是的,我们的未来就在

眼前,但我们应该尽我们

所能来保护冰层,所以让我们

尽可能长时间地隐藏这个景观,

并为下一代减少未来海平面上升,

谢谢