Climate Action Tracker The state of the climate crisis in 2021 TED
2021 is a crucial year in the fight
against climate change.
According to the Paris Agreement
timetable, this year,
governments must make key decisions
on updating their climate action plans.
Are we on track to meet the goal
of limiting global warming
to 1.5 degrees Celsius?
There is good news and bad news,
and the details matter,
so let’s explore the data.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,
all countries agreed to hold
the global average temperature increase
well below 2 degrees Celsius,
and to pursue efforts to limit it
to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists, including the IPCC,
tell us that to meet
this 1.5-degree warming limit,
global greenhouse gas emissions
need to be cut in half by 2030,
and carbon dioxide emissions
need to reach net zero by around 2050 –
an enormous but achievable challenge.
The information presented here
is from the Climate Action Tracker,
a project that monitors
national commitments and actions
and is current
as of the 1st of June, 2021.
The good news has to do
with 30 years from now.
Increasingly, governments are pledging
to reduce emissions to net zero
by the middle of the century,
which would be in line
with the Paris Agreement’s goals.
There are already 131 national governments
that have adopted net zero targets
or are discussing them.
Those targets would cover 73 percent
of current global
greenhouse gas emissions.
They include the European Union,
which has enshrined this goal into law,
the UK, South Africa, Japan, South Korea,
Canada, China and the United States,
as well as several small island nations.
However, the currently implemented
actions of all countries
will do little more than stop
an increase in future emissions.
That will put us on a trajectory
for an estimated warming
of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,
and lead to catastrophic climate change.
Under the Paris Agreement,
countries have to put forward
formal, updated commitments
to achieve the global target.
In the last few months,
the EU, the US, China
and others have done so,
and we estimate
that their full implementation
could bring us on a path to the warming
of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Already better, but still far from 1.5.
There is a more optimistic case.
Let’s assume all the commitments
and stated intentions become policies,
and are followed by actions,
including the net zero targets
under discussion
or not yet officially submitted
under the Paris Agreement.
This would put the world on a trajectory
to keep global warming
to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Additional increases in ambition
could bring the 1.5-degree Celsius target,
theoretically, within reach.
But that’s in theory.
The actual short-term actions and plans
don’t yet match the long-term intentions,
and that’s the bad news.
No one will be surprised
by the fact that short-term actions,
which may determine electoral outcomes,
are more timid than long-term commitments
that will fall on future
governments to execute.
But it is the next nine years
that will determine if we can achieve
the target of net zero by mid-century.
The first milestone is 2030.
By then, emissions will need to be halved
for the world to be brought
onto a 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.
If we miss the 2030 milestone,
making up for it later will be
increasingly expensive or even impossible.
But with currently proposed actions,
even the targets
announced in recent months,
global emissions
would barely stabilize until 2030,
leaving an enormous gap.
It is not in the spirit
of the Paris Agreement
for countries to simply resubmit
the same target as five years prior,
or to offer different targets
that don’t actually lead
to lower emissions.
This is, unfortunately, the case so far
for Australia, Mexico, Russia,
Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.
South Korea and New Zealand
say they will come up with new targets
before the end of the year.
Perhaps the worst case is Brazil,
whose new stated target
would lead to emissions increasing
from its earlier promise.
These countries need to reconsider
their decisions.
And finally, there are still
dozens of countries
that have not made
a new announcement for 2030,
such as Indonesia and India,
though they do still have some time
before the COP26 Conference
to formalize their proposals.
So in summary, the picture
is more hopeful than ever,
if we look at the stated 2050 goals,
but the actual short-term
climate actions won’t get us there.
There is good news elsewhere.
We can sometimes be surprised
by the speed at which
an entire sector can flip.
For example, renewable energy
is the new normal
for new power production
capacity worldwide,
because it’s cheaper.
Many major automakers
are transitioning to electric cars,
and the financial sector
seems to have started the movement
out of investing in fossil fuels.
Also, the first countries have announced
they will stop extracting
fossil fuels entirely.
The world needs to find
that kind of serious, bold leadership
to bring us onto a safer path.
And keep in mind that if we don’t
reach 1.5 degrees Celsius,
then the next target isn’t two degrees,
but 1.6 degrees Celsius.
The impacts of global warming
already being felt
will hit in a nonlinear, exponential way.
So when it comes to climate change,
every year, every action
and every tenth of a degree matters.