How to bring affordable sustainable electricity to Africa Rose M. Mutiso
So right now, nearly
one billion people globally
don’t have access
to electricity in their homes.
And in sub-Saharan Africa,
more than half of the population
remain in the dark.
So you probably all know
this image from NASA.
There’s a name for this darkness.
It’s called “energy poverty,”
and it has massive implications
for economic development
and social well-being.
One unique aspect of the energy
poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa –
and by the way, in this talk
when I “energy,” I mean “electricity” –
one thing that’s unique about it is
there isn’t much legacy
infrastructure already in place
in many countries of the region.
So, for example, according to 2015 data,
the total installed electricity capacity
in sub-Saharan Africa
is only about 100 gigawatts.
That’s similar to that of the UK.
So this actually presents
a unique opportunity
to build an energy system
in the 21st century
almost from scratch.
The question is: How do you do that?
We could look back to the past
and replicate the ways
in which we’ve managed to bring
stable, affordable electricity
to a big part of the world’s population.
But we all know that that has
some well-known terrible side effects,
such as pollution and climate change,
in addition to being
costly and inefficient.
With Africa’s population set to quadruple
by the end of the century,
this is not a theoretical question.
Africa needs a lot of energy,
and it needs it fast,
because its population is booming
and its economy needs to develop.
So for most countries,
the general trajectory of electrification
has been as follows.
First, large-scale
grid infrastructure is put in place,
usually with significant
public investment.
That infrastructure then powers
productive centers,
such as factories,
agricultural mechanization,
commercial enterprises and the like.
And this then stimulates economic growth,
creating jobs, raising incomes
and producing a virtuous cycle
that helps more people
afford more appliances,
which then creates residential
demand for electricity.
But in sub-Saharan Africa,
despite decades of energy projects,
we haven’t really seen these benefits.
The energy projects have often
been characterized by waste,
corruption and inefficiency;
our rural electrification
rates are really low,
and our urban rates could be better;
the reliability of
our electricity is terrible;
and we have some of the highest
electricity prices in the whole world.
And on top of all of this,
we are now facing the impacts of
the growing climate catastrophe head-on.
So Africa will need
to find a different path.
And, as it turns out,
we are now witnessing
some pretty exciting disruption
in the African energy space.
This new path is called off-grid solar,
and it’s enabled by cheap solar panels,
advances in LED and battery technology,
and combined with
innovative business models.
So these off-grid solar products
typically range from a single light
to home system kits
that can charge phones,
power a television
or run a fan.
I want to be clear:
off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.
I have worked in the sector for years,
and these products are enabling us
to extend basic energy services
to some of the world’s poorest,
raising their quality of life.
This is a very good
and a very important thing.
However, off-grid solar will not solve
energy poverty in Africa,
and for that matter,
neither will a top-down effort
to connect every unserved household
to the grid.
See, I’m not here to rehash
that played-out “on-versus-off-grid”
or “old-versus-new” debate.
Instead,
I believe that our inability
to grapple with and truly address
energy poverty in Africa
stems from three main sources.
First, we don’t really have
a clear understanding
of what energy poverty is,
or how deep it goes.
Second, we are avoiding
complex systemic issues
and prefer quick fixes.
And third, we are misdirecting
concerns about climate change.
Combined, these three mistakes are leading
us to impose a Western debate
on the future of energy
and falling back on paternalistic
attitudes towards Africa.
So let me try and unpack
these three questions.
First, what exactly is energy poverty?
The main energy poverty targeted indicator
is enshrined in the UN’s Seventh
Sustainable Development Goal,
or SDG 7.
It calls for 100 percent
of the world’s population
to have access to electricity
by the year 2030.
This binary threshold, however,
ignores the quality, reliability
or utility of the power,
though indicators
are currently being developed
that will try and capture these things.
However, the question of when
a household is considered “connected”
is not quite clear-cut.
So, for example, last year
the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
declared all of the villages
in India electrified,
the criteria for electrification being
a transformer in every village
plus its public centers
and 10 percent – 10 percent –
of its households connected.
Meanwhile,
the International Energy Agency,
which tracks progress against SDG 7,
defines energy access as
50 kilowatt hours per person per year.
That’s enough to power
some light bulbs and charge a phone,
perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan
for a few hours a day.
Now, providing entry-level access
is an important first step,
but let’s not romanticize the situation.
By any standard, a few lights
and not much else
is still living in energy poverty.
And what’s more,
these energy poverty
indicators and targets
cover only residential use.
And yet, households account
for just about one quarter
of the world’s electricity consumption.
That’s because most of our power
is used in industries and for commerce.
Which brings me to my main point:
countries cannot grow out of poverty
without access to abundant,
affordable and reliable electricity
to power these productive centers,
or what I call “Energy for Growth.”
As you can see from this graph,
there’s simply no such thing
as a low-energy, high-income country.
It doesn’t exist.
And yet, three billion people in the world
currently live in countries without
reliable, affordable electricity –
not just to power their homes
but also their factories,
their office buildings, their data centers
and other economic activities.
Merely electrifying households
and microenterprises
cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.
To solve energy poverty,
we need to deliver reliable,
affordable electricity at scale,
to power economy-wide job creation
and income growth.
This need, however, bumps
against an emerging narrative that,
faced with climate change,
we all need to transition
from large, centralized power systems
to small-scale distributed power.
The growth of off-grid solar in Africa –
and let me repeat,
off-grid solar is a good thing –
but that growth fits nicely
into this narrative
and has led to those claims that Africa
is leapfrogging the old ways of energy
and building its power system
from the ground up,
one solar panel at a time.
It’s a nice, solicitous narrative,
but also quite naïve.
Like many narratives
of technological disruption,
often inspired by Silicon Valley,
it takes for granted the existing systems
that underpin all of this transformation.
You see, when it comes
to innovating and energy,
the West is working around the edges
of a system that is tried and tested.
And so all the sexy stuff –
the rooftop solar,
the smart household devices,
the electric vehicles –
all of this is built on top of a massive
and absolutely essential grid,
which itself exists within
a proven governance framework.
Even the most advanced
countries in the world
don’t have an example of an energy system
that is all edges and no center at scale.
So ultimately, no approach –
be it centralized or distributed,
renewable or fossil-based –
can succeed in solving energy poverty
without finding a way to deliver
reliable, affordable electricity
to Africa’s emerging industrial
and commercial sectors.
So, it’s not just lights
in every rural home.
It’s power for Africa’s cities
that are growing fast
and increasingly full
of young, capable people
in desperate need of a job.
This in turn will require
significant interconnectivity
and economies of scale,
making a robust and modern grid
a crucial piece of any
energy poverty solution.
So, our second mistake is falling
for the allure of the quick fix.
You see, energy poverty exists
within a complex socioeconomic
and political context.
And part of the appeal
of new electrification models
such as off-grid solar, for example,
is they can often bypass the glacial pace
and inefficiency of government.
See, with small systems you can skip
the bureaucracies and the utilities
and sell directly to customers.
But to confront energy poverty,
you cannot ignore governments,
you cannot ignore institutions,
you cannot ignore the many players
involved in making, moving
and using electricity at scale,
which is a way to say that when it comes
to providing energy for growth,
it’s not just about
innovating the technology,
it’s about the slow and hard work
of improving governance, institutions
and the broader macroenvironment.
OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.
But what about climate change?
How do we ensure a high-energy
future for everyone
while also curbing our emissions?
Well, we’ll have to make
some complex tradeoffs,
but I believe that
a high-energy future for Africa
is not mutually exclusive
to a low-carbon future.
And make no mistake:
the world cannot expect Africa
to remain in energy poverty
because of climate change.
(Applause)
Actually, the facts show
that the opposite is true.
Energy will be essential for Africa
to adapt to climate change
and build resilience.
You see, rising temperatures will mean
increased demand for space cooling
and cold storage.
Declining water tables will mean
increased pumped irrigation.
And extreme weather and rising sea levels
will require a significant expansion
and reinforcement of our infrastructure.
These are all energy-intensive activities.
So balancing climate change
and Africa’s pressing need
to transition to a high-energy future
will be tough.
But doing so is nonnegotiable;
we will have to find a way.
The first step is broadening
the terms of the debate
away from this either-or framing.
And we also must stop
romanticizing solutions
that distract us from the core challenges.
And let’s not also forget that Africa
is endowed with vast natural resources,
including significant renewable potential.
For example, in Kenya, where I’m from,
geothermal power accounts
for half of our electricity generation,
and with hydro being
the other major source,
we are already mainly powered
by renewable energy.
We also just brought online
Africa’s largest wind farm
and East Africa’s biggest solar facility.
(Applause)
In addition,
new technology means that we can now
run and design our power systems
and use energy more efficiently than ever,
doing more with less.
Energy efficiency
will be an important tool
in the fight against climate change.
So in closing, I’d just like to say that
Africa is a real place with real people,
navigating complex challenges
and major transitions,
just like any other region of the world.
(Applause)
And while each country and each region
has its social, economic
and political quirks,
the physics of electricity
are the same everywhere.
(Laughter) (Applause)
And the energy needs of our economies
are just as intensive as those
of any other economy.
So, the expansion
of household electrification
through a mix of
on- and off-grid solutions
has had an incredible impact in Africa.
But they are nowhere near sufficient
for solving energy poverty.
To solve energy poverty,
we need generation of electricity
from diverse sources at scale
and modern grids to power
a high-energy future,
in which Africans can enjoy
modern living standards
and well-paying jobs.
Africans deserve this,
and with one of every four people
in the world projected to be African
by the year 2100,
the planet needs it.
Thank you.
(Applause)