Predictive Technologies
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[Music]
hello i want to talk
with you today about predictive
technologies
are they our next unwelcome house guest
what do you think or will they help us
build a green
energy system and the energy
future-proofed energy system for
our environment well
what are predictive technologies
obviously
we all heard about it and we all use it
literally every day already when we use
the weather forecast
that’s prediction so if we use our
umbrella or if we need a jacket
that’s already prediction but for many
predictive
technologies that surround us already we
don’t even know or
at least we don’t think of it that way
of course it’s developed but also
recommender systems
so emerson spotify these are the typical
ones netflix
but also job algorithms so when i search
for a new job
the job center might already predict if
it’s worth to invest in you
or not so you see here there are many
problematic fields in there but also
huge advantages especially for climate
change and that’s what we want to talk
about uh
today about the bright and also the dark
sides of it
and also how little data you actually
need to do this
to predict you your surroundings and
much more
and where are the data coming from so by
law in europe
we are required to get smart meters in
europe
so that we get the data of our energy
consumption
monitored they can automatically read
out the
energy consumption we have
and so we will produce in the future a
lot of data where we can do
bad or nice stuff with it and
climate change um is it
it’s coming and it’s a big problem so
one of the big problems there is the
energy system
yeah so we have really to weigh the
costs and
benefits of especially these smart
metering so our electricity data
because it can be public not public
it’s definitely out there so we have to
work with it
yeah so what is the benefit if we have
this data and if we do
a prediction of our energy systems so we
can optimize our
energy production so we that we don’t
produce
too much energy we know exactly in
different areas
how much energy will be used there how
much energy will be produced in
another area so we can optimize the
energy
transport system and we can optimize
the production of renewable energy
so when we can predict the weather how
much wind we will get how much
sunshine we will get and we can predict
the energy use we have
we can combine these together and try to
bring the energy consumption
where we have this green and renewable
energy available for us
everything comes with a cost obviously
and the cost to actually be efficient in
using these energies
are variable or flexible tariffs uh what
does it mean it’s
not flexible for us unfortunately it
just means
that the cost or the price of the
electricity is more flexible to us
which is useful if you can stay at home
and say oh yeah
now it’s a lot of sunshine i’m using my
washing machine now
but it’s really really bad if you’re
already
challenged with with fun with fine
with your finances for example
especially working poor people have a
problem
because they can’t say well i wait now
for my laundry
no i need it tomorrow in the morning so
i can go to work and for these people
can be actually
worse and also i mean now you can say
well then buy a washing machine that
actually tells you when to use it best
well the investment costs especially for
financially challenged people
might not fit that requirement so
but things can happen yeah but
on the other side if we have this all
these appliances
and we have the data we can predict
these appliances
we can say because we have the data in
15 minutes intervals
we can say at this time you have used
your washing machine
you have an old washing machine where
your heating element is
has already a very poor quality so
it can predict okay if you buy now a new
washing machine which will use
the communication with the smart grid to
say okay
i put my my stuff in there i say
start whenever there is a good time for
the grid
to wash my laundry and
we can calculate how long will it take
to get back the money from the energy
savings
you will have with this new machine we
can do gamification uh
things with that so you can look at oh
last week i have used this much energy
this week i’m better
why i’m better what have i changed how
is my friends are doing how is my
neighbors are doing
and we can see how is it globally doing
am i uh
do i save energy or am i spending too
much energy
or also in medicine for elderly assisted
living
we can use this to keep people longer at
home
especially elderly people they have a
very specific
plan of a day so we can predict when
they
normally turn on their coffee machine
when they do their laundry when they’re
cooking their meals so we can predict
if they don’t turn on their washing
machine their coffee machine in the
morning
has there happened something should we
call them
and we don’t need a lot of investment to
build
apartments which can support this and
for example if we say the person starts
to switch on
the lights more and more in the night
that could mean that he’s going to the
toilet
because he is developing
some new disease and should go in for
treatment on the other hand we have the
smart grid so we need to build a
grid that can communicate with each
other the
devices can communicate with each other
but if we can predict
the energy consumption there we need
less infrastructure
we need less building of high voltage
power lines going through the
countryside
we can try to produce the energy we need
with renewable energy at the place where
it is consumed
and we can try to remove to
have not that much non-renewable energy
used in our system
again the cost well
yes we can really be more efficient and
really
start saving a lot of energy but
therefore we have again to invest
a lot primarily
so many countries in the world have to
rebuild the entire power grid system
to actually make it happen and because
of the communication devices that you
formerly didn’t need
you have also higher maintenance costs
but that even makes the risk of attacks
and frauds
even higher and also the risk of
failures
just to have one example at least
2016 in the ukraine there was a cyber
attack
and 200 205
people sit uh sit in the dark for three
hours
well that was actually not too bad but
that is just a start and you can do it
with the worldwide access so
we need really security and security
regulations
to have um a secure power grid
and also when he said gamification and
stuff and when our neighbors know what
we consume
well when the neighbors knew when we
what we consume
well then also companies do
unfortunately and they
i normally don’t use it to make our
lives better but to make more profit
so they will use more recommender
systems and already
uh in the 2020s 35 percent of
amazon sales just come from they’re
recommending us
stuff and also additional target
marketing over google et cetera et
cetera
and supervision of the customer so they
know when you’re pregnant before you do
just on your shopping list not joking
that is happening
so um this could also result in a
typical turbo
capitalism which means more energy more
cheap labor
more garbage more shipping which results
into the same
again and again and again yeah
but on the other side we can also
encourage or enforce
companies to save energy we can monitor
their consumption of energy and compare
this to
other companies in their field or
companies in other regions
and with this comparison we can try to
give them a benefit to be more efficient
and to have like an green sticker for
their products
that they say okay we are using mainly
green energy
we are trying to save energy we try to
shift our
production cycles to times when there is
green energy available
and we don’t use non-renewable energy
and this can also be used as an
innovation driver
for the governments to invest into these
areas to bring
new energy saving technologies into
companies
where there is a lot of energy used and
therefore can be a lot of energy saved
in these areas
again costs we were the companies
already
but it can get worse especially in these
times
where home office becomes more and more
the thing
the monitoring of your efficiency at
home
or also in the office can be done with
your energy data or at least in
some professions and well i don’t like
to be monitored that much
so and also not only efficiency
monitoring but also resource monitoring
so
again we have to tell the companies that
they are not allowed
to do it but also not just as uh
of course as an employee i was already
at a customer but
as a customer it can be time-based
pricing not only for your electricity
but for everything
which again financially challenged
people have
even a bigger problem with that consumer
scoring we know it from germany
when you want to rent a flat they know
already
a lot about you i don’t like if they
know even more about me
and also remote energy control
thing is it is a possibility
that the electricity company and you
have forgotten
to pay once no electricity anymore
and these are just the criminal
companies so they are criminals
when your neighbor knows how much energy
you use then also other people
in the world wide web and also near
around you so if you don’t
use energy because you’re on holiday
something can just
come for a short wizard maybe
so uh and also ransomware it could
actually uh
be a problem for uh the utility provider
that happened in michigan
were a week down water and electricity
not that good
um and you can’t be even a criminal
yourself anymore
why because you see in the data when you
have like a 40
square meter flat that happens in my
research actually
uh and you see like everybody’s like
have
the same kind of amount of energy usage
and then there are two people just with
3 000 kilowatt hours more than everybody
else
two reasons for that mariana operations
or a really really cool server system
but it will it is also used already
for policing so for
prediction policy in ohio and there they
find
the mariana operations
so the future yes um
it can be bad by behavioral analysis
prediction enhancements and also this
policy
and we have to be aware of that and it
can always be worse
this would just outline us but
can it be better for sure yeah it can be
better
but we have to work together to bring it
to a better
system and what we need for that is we
need to have awareness about it
we need to know what is to be done with
our data
and we need legislation for all this
data how can it be used how should it be
used
and what can be predicted and what
should not be predicted with all this
data
so yeah all in all together it’s our
responsible
uh our responsibility to also demand for
it
to demand for legislation that this and
the dis prediction technology
can be used actually uh to uh
challenge uh the climate change and to
make things better
and not worse not for us privately not
for the companies
and so on and so on and yeah legislation
will make the difference it will be key
and we
are there for demanding it and i hope we
both could give you an insight and yeah
feel free to ask any questions after
what’s
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