How accurate is the weather forecast Am I Normal With Mona Chalabi
Transcriber:
No one remembers when you’re right,
but no one forgets when you’re wrong.
That’s a saying we can all
probably relate to.
But arguably, no one deals
with the backlash of getting things wrong
as regularly as a weather person.
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
From angry Twitter posts to hate mail,
people can get really annoyed
when the forecast
is nothing like the reality.
In 1964, the director of the Taiwan
provincial weather bureau
was even indicted for failing to correctly
forecast the path of a typhoon.
So is our anger justified?
I decided to find out just how accurate
the weatherman really is.
By comparing forecasts from 2017
to the actual temperatures
that were recorded,
I found that, as you’d expect,
the forecast gets more accurate
the closer you are to the actual date.
So, for instance, when the US
National Weather Service
issued a forecast seven days in advance,
it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit.
At one day in advance,
their forecast was only off
by about three degrees.
But even though better modeling
and better technology is expected
to bring us better forecasts,
we may never be able to predict
the weather with 100 percent accuracy.
That’s because there are more
than 100 tredecilion molecules
in the atmosphere.
That is the number one,
followed by 44 zeros.
So if we wanted to predict the weather
with absolute certainty,
we would need to know
the position and movement
of all of those particles,
which is basically impossible
for even our best computers.
And our drive to know the future
isn’t limited to the weather.
Take elections, for example.
Despite what some websites or publications
may lead you to believe,
the most accurate election polls
are the ones that are taken
on election day,
not the ones that are
carried out in advance.
So the lesson here
isn’t a terribly surprising one.
Accurate predictions depend
on accurate information.
And the further out you are,
the higher the chances
that information can change.
So for better accuracy,
you just need to be patient.
Try to hold off as close as you can
to the actual event.
And for now, go easy
on your local weather person.