Lifes a Game so Lets Play

let’s start off with the scenario

i want you to imagine that you just

bought the most perfect cake in front of

you

but there’s two problems it’s small and

your friend is with you

so let’s say that you and your friend

agree from the beginning

that you are going to cut and that you

are going to choose your first piece

so the question is how would you cut the

cake

would you cut it so that both of the

pieces are even or would you cut it so

that one piece

is bigger than the other now let’s

change it up a little bit and let’s say

that you’re still the person cutting but

this time

your friend gets to pick first how would

you cut the cake then

would you cut it in even pieces or would

you still cut to where one is bigger

than the other i want you to keep your

answer in mind

while we analyze this really simple

situation

so obviously in that first situation you

want to cut yourself the bigger piece

and take the bigger piece it is your

cake after all

but in that second situation where your

friend is going to pick the first piece

you would want to cut even pieces

because you don’t want to end up

with a smaller piece of cake this is

really simple

it’s understandable it’s logical it

makes sense

it’s just cake cutting in both

situations you are behaving in a way

that benefits yourself

the most but depending on whether your

friend gets to pick the

pick the piece first will change your

behavior

and this is what game theory is

we’re using game theory every single day

whether we realize it or not

we’re using it at home we’re using it at

school we’re using it even at work

we used it to determine how to cut a

cake

game theory analyzes the steps a person

takes

when they’re making a decision and how

that decision

will ultimately affect the outcome for

yourself

and for those involved choosing how to

cut a cake

is a game where every decision you make

will affect the outcome for yourself

both for yourself

and for your friend when you are in

control when you

are holding that knife you want to put

you want to put yourself

in that better position where you will

benefit the most

from the situation now i want to play a

game

this is called the numbers game and it’s

actually from the book the artist

strategy

this game is used to demonstrate how

game theory works

with a game maker’s perspective and a

player’s perspective

so behind this question mark i have a

pre-selected number your

job is to guess the number behind the

question mark

you as an audience have five guesses and

after each guess

i will tell you whether your my number

is higher or lower

than your number so if you’re thinking

about this game strategically

and logically what would your first

guess

be

  1. 50 is the perfect place to start and

here’s why

by me telling you that my number it’s

less than 50.

well now you’ve eliminated half of the

possibilities and you’ve increased your

chances

from 1 in 100 to 1 in 50.

now your second guess what would your

second guess be

25 good you’re catching on but my number

is bigger than 25.

now your third guess what is your third

guess going to be

it would be 37 because again it is that

halfway part

halfway point between 25 and 50. but my

number is still

bigger than 37. now your fourth guess

what is your fourth guess going to be 43

43 but my number is still higher than 43

but you’re getting really close now

before your last

guess i’m going to give you a hint i

as the game maker my goal is to make you

lose

i do not want you to win i know that

strategically your best bet

is to divide customers in half and

increase your chances

of getting it randomly correct on that

last try

but the number here that i picked was

intentional

it was meant to reduce your chances of

getting it right

even if you are increasing your chances

every step of the way

so if you’re thinking about this

logically what number

am i least expecting you to say which

one

is the last one that you would ever

i’m hearing a lot of 49. so i want you

to raise your hand

if you believe that the number is 49.

that’s quite a few of you now i want you

to use that hand and pat yourself on the

back

because you just got the participation

award because you lost

and i’m really sorry and let me tell you

why

from the very beginning i was being

intentional with my choices

with the number that i picked and the

information that i was giving you

the number that i picked was like i said

intentional it was meant to reduce your

chances

of guessing it right before your last

guess i even told you what my goal was

and that this number would be the very

last one that you expect

my number here was 48.

49 was close but you weren’t right

by picking 48 i put myself in a better

position

because the chances of you actually

straying away from 49

after all the information that i’ve

given you is actually quite low

i calculated my chances before i came

here today

everything is a game every time you are

making a decision

this is game theory applies now reverse

psychology can work with the game too

i know that you know what my strategy is

and so if from the very beginning i

believe that you are going to pick

48 then i would pick 49

or even 47. but this is where it gets

complicated

we could keep going back and forth

between 48

and 49 and we could even throw in 47

but ultimately it comes down to chance

it comes down to probability

and this is what decision making is in

your life before you make a decision

you have to calculate your chances and

you weigh

your outcomes and that’s how you make

your decision

all of this here is game theory it’s

just from different perspectives

when you are put in a situation where

you have to make a decision

you have to take into consideration what

the objective is

and how the other people in that same

situation will behave

that is how you should make your

decision so with the cake cutting game

you are putting yourself in that better

position you took into consideration

what your friend was going to do whether

they were picking a piece

or not and that’s how you ended up with

either the bigger piece of cake

or at least an equal slice of cake

but in the numbers game you guys lost

because you failed to take into

consideration

what my true objective was and what my

true strategy was

we’re using game theory every day to

make decisions

when you are put in a situation where

you have to make a decision

it is ultimately a game

imagine you’re in school and you’re

taking a test what is your best strategy

it’s to study but what happens if you

didn’t study

well then you would want to increase

your chances of getting an

a how would you do that well when you

have a question in front of you

you want to increase your chances of

getting the correct answer

so you would cross off the answers that

you know aren’t right

and increase your chances by increasing

your chances of getting the right answer

on each question

you’re increasing your overall chance of

getting an a

when you’re trying to pick people for a

group project

you don’t want to pick the people who

won’t do work

you want to pick the people who will

actually help you

and which will result in a better

outcome for your presentation

a few other examples would be when you

are bargaining with a salesperson

for a car or a house when you’re trying

to pick a route home

when you’re trying to cut a cake you’re

using game theory everything

is a game but you have to make sure that

you take into consideration

what the objective is and what the

strategy is

just because it’s a game doesn’t mean

you should take it lightly

if we’re really thinking about it life

is a game where you are constantly

making decisions

and each decision will affect the

outcome for both yourself

and everyone else involved so you should

really take the time to sit down

and consider what your true objective is

what the strategies

are and what the outcomes may be

because life is a game so let’s take up

that challenge

and let’s play it to our full potential

thank you

让我们从

我想让你

想象的场景

开始 要切,

你要选择你的第一块,

所以问题是你会怎么切蛋糕

,你会切它,使

两块均匀,还是你现在切它,使

一块比另一块大 让我们

稍微改变一下,

假设您仍然是切蛋糕的人,但是

这次

您的朋友首先要选择

您将如何切蛋糕,然后

将其切成均匀的部分,

还是仍要切到切蛋糕的位置 在我们分析这个非常简单

的情况时,我希望你记住你的

答案,

所以很明显,在第一种情况下,你

想把自己切大块

,拿大块,毕竟这是你的

蛋糕,

但在那一秒 在你的

朋友要挑第一块的情况下,

你会想要切块,

因为你不想最终

得到一块更小的蛋糕 这

真的很简单

这是可以理解的 这是合乎逻辑的 它

是有道理的

它只是切蛋糕 在这两种

情况下,您的行为方式

都对

自己最有利,但取决于您的

朋友是否会

先选择这块棋子,这将改变您的

行为

,这就是博弈论

我们每天都在使用博弈论

我们是否意识到 不管

我们在家里使用它

我们在学校使用它 我们甚至在工作中

使用它 我们用它来确定如何切蛋糕

博弈论分析一个人

在做出决定时所采取的步骤 以及

该决定

将如何最终影响您

自己

和参与其中的人选择如何

切蛋糕的结果

是一场游戏,您做出的每一个决定

都会影响

您自己和您朋友的结果

当你握着那把刀时,你在掌控之中

你想把自己

放在一个更好的位置

上 预订艺术家

策略

这个游戏用于展示

博弈论如何

与游戏制作者的观点和

玩家的观点一起工作

所以在这个问号后面我有一个

预先选择的数字 你的

工作是猜测问号后面的数字

你作为观众 有五次猜测,

每次猜测后,

我都会告诉你我的数字

是高于还是

低于你的数字,所以如果你

从战略和逻辑上考虑这个游戏,你的第一个

猜测

50。50 是一个完美的起点和

这就是

为什么我告诉你我的数字

小于

50。现在你已经消除了一半的

可能性,你的

机会

从 100 分之一增加到了 50 分之一。

现在你的

第二个猜猜你的第二个猜测是什么

25 很好,但我的

数字比 25 大

和 50。但我的

数字仍然

大于 37。现在你的第四个猜测

是什么,你的第四个猜测将是 43

43,但我的数字仍然高于 43,

在你最后一次

猜测我要去之前,你现在已经非常接近了 给你一个提示我

作为游戏制造商我的目标是让你

我不希望你赢我知道

战略上你最好的选择

是将客户分成两半并

增加你

在最后一次尝试中随机正确的机会

但是我在这里选择的数字是

故意的

,即使您每一步都在增加机会,但它是为了减少您

做对

的机会

所以如果您

从逻辑上考虑这个数字,

我最不希望您说什么 哪个

是 t 他最后一个你会

听到很多 49。所以

如果你相信这个数字是 49

,我希望你举手。你们中的很多人现在我希望

你用那只手拍拍自己 在

背面,

因为你刚刚获得参与

奖,因为你输了

,我真的很抱歉,让我告诉你

为什么

从一开始我就

故意

选择我选择的号码和

我给你的信息

我选择的数字就像我说的是

故意的,它是为了减少你

在你最后一次猜测之前猜到它的机会

我什至告诉你我的目标是什么

,这个数字将

是你期望

我的数字在这里的最后一个数字 48.

49 很接近,但你

选择 48

不对的 我

今天来了

每次

做出决定时,

一切都是游戏,这是游戏理论现在适用,逆向

心理学也可以与游戏一起使用

我知道你知道我的策略是什么

,所以如果从一开始我就

相信你会选择

48 然后我会选择 49

甚至 47。但这就是复杂的地方,

我们可以继续

在 48

和 49 之间来回切换,我们甚至可以输入 47,

但最终归结为机会

,归结为概率

,这就是 决策是在

你的生活中,在你做出决定之前,

你必须计算你的机会并

权衡

你的结果,这就是你

做出决定的方式

所有这一切都是博弈论它

只是从不同的角度来看,

当你处于一个你所处的

情况 必须做出决定,

您必须考虑

目标是什么

,以及在相同情况下其他人的

行为方式

,这就是您应该如何做出

决定,所以切蛋糕 g 游戏

你把自己放在更好的

位置你考虑

到你的朋友会做什么,无论

他们

是否选择一块蛋糕,这就是你最终

得到更大一块蛋糕

或至少一块相同蛋糕的方式

但是在数字游戏中你们输了,

因为你没有考虑

到我的真正目标是什么,我

真正的策略是什么,

当你处于必须做出决定的情况下,

我们每天都在使用博弈论来做出决定 决定

这最终是一场游戏

想象你在学校并且你正在

参加考试 你

最好的学习策略是什么,但是如果你学习不好会发生什么,

那么你会想要

增加获得

一个如何的机会 当你

有一个问题摆在你面前时,你会做得很好吗?

你想增加

获得正确答案的机会,

所以你会划掉

你知道不正确的答案,

并通过增加机会来增加机会

你在每个问题上得到正确答案的机会

当你试图为一个小组项目挑选人员时,你增加了获得 a 的总体机会

你不想挑选那些

不会做

你想做的工作的人 选择那些

真正能帮助你的人

,这会给

的演讲带来更好

的结果 您正在尝试切蛋糕您正在

使用博弈论一切

都是游戏,但您必须

确保考虑

到目标是什么以及

策略是什么

仅仅因为它是一个游戏并不意味着

您应该考虑

如果我们真的在考虑它,那就轻描淡写地生活

是一场游戏,你不断地

做出决定

,每个决定都会

影响你自己

和其他所有相关人员的结果,所以你

真的应该花时间坐下

来考虑你的 真正的目标是

策略

是什么以及结果可能是什么,

因为生活是一场游戏,所以让我们接受

这个挑战

,让我们充分发挥它的潜力,

谢谢