What COVID19 can teach us about resilience

Transcriber: Eunice Tan
Reviewer: Peter Van de Ven

Jeremy Duhon: Colorado
started out in March

with amongst the highest number
of COVID-19 cases.

And since then, the state
has worked hard to bring them down.

I’m joined by the founder
of Geospiza, Sarah Tuneberg,

who was called by the governor
earlier this year

to lead Colorado’s Coronavirus
Innovation Response Team.

Sarah, it’s a pleasure
to have you with us today.

Now, you moved from the private sector

to a critical role
in government oversight.

Tell us about what’s been
most eye-opening so far.

Sarah Tuneberg: I did.

So after a career in emergency
management and public health,

I cofounded a company
that worked with very large companies

to help them manage
and plan for climate change

and really manage
their climate risk and reduce it.

And so moving into this role
in the government

has been incredibly interesting

because I feel like my learning
has really gone full circle.

In my role in Geospiza,

leading that team
and working with our customers,

we were always striving
towards resilience.

We were helping them
have more resilient supply chains,

more resilient revenue models.

And I had this sort of idea

that perhaps resilience and efficiency
were two sides of the same coin.

And in my new role at the state,
working on COVID,

I’ve really seen that manifest,
and I’ve seen it come really full circle.

I’ve seen it on the private sector side

and now seeing how
it really affects government

and our taxpayers and all of us.

JD: That’s interesting.

I’d love to hone in
on that trade-off a bit more.

So what’s a specific example

of how efficiency can actually
make us less resilient?

ST: So one of the most
interesting examples

that I’ve seen specifically in COVID

is that in March, as we started
experiencing more and more disease,

we had huge disruptions
in our meat processing capabilities.

So, in meat processing facilities,
people work very, very close together -

good for efficiency,
not great for disease transmission.

Well, actually, really great
for disease transmission,

but that’s not what we want.

And so in the early days of COVID,

people were working very close together
in meat processing facilities,

and we had our first series
of outbreaks in the United States.

And the system of factory farming
that makes the meat we eat

is so efficient that any hitch
or any sort of slowdown,

as we saw because plants had to close
because they had outbreaks,

backs up the entire system.

And in Colorado and, again,
states across the Midwest and West,

we saw huge numbers of animals

being unable to be moved
into that processing capacity -

not enough room on farms and ranches -

and those animals,
in the tens of thousands,

had to be slaughtered.

And it was doubly terrible because
it was a time when millions of people

were losing their jobs because of COVID
and going to food banks,

and we had all of this excess capacity
in our meat system,

and then taxpayers had to fund
the disposal of all of those carcasses.

So the system that was so efficient
couldn’t absorb any of the shock or slack,

and it became hugely problematic.

JD: Yeah, it’s really devastating
in a lot of ways.

Why do companies and individuals

really struggle to understand
this need for resiliency?

I mean, is it the long-term aspect of it?

I mean, why don’t we do a better job
when it comes to this trade-off?

ST: I’m still really trying
to understand that myself,

but I have a couple of hypotheses.

The first is that we emphasize
lean, mean businesses

that really squeeze every bit of profit
and every cent out of every dollar we can.

And in doing that,

we create systems that are just-in-time,
that are ultra, ultraefficient.

And we don’t leave any slack,
we don’t leave any squish

because we want every bit
of profit we can get.

And that leaves us
in a really very vulnerable state.

Another interesting example

is that as Hurricane Maria destroyed
Puerto Rico a couple of years back,

we lost access to 10
of our top prescribed drugs.

Because our systems were so efficient

and our processing capability
was so centralized -

because that allowed us to take advantage

of highly trained workers
and really efficient shipping systems -

that when Maria wiped out those factories,

the whole world lost access
to really important drugs.

So we see this over and over again,
and we’re going to see it more.

JD: Yeah, that example makes me think,
Is this a common, I mean,

is it a uniform problem
across the entire world

or are there certain countries
that really struggle more

with this long-term thinking
and this need for resiliency?

ST: I think we see it especially
in well-developed Western economies,

Western democratic economies,

where we emphasize profit
and we emphasize being really efficient,

like I said.

And we don’t just see it
sort of across the globe,

we see it across all of our systems.

So in addition to seeing it manifest

in large corporations
and in our governments,

we also really experience it
a lot of times in our individual families.

We’ve seen in the statistics
that very few people have enough savings

to cover a broken arm
and the insurance cost that that might be

or a car accident
and having to pay that premium.

We just don’t give ourselves
a lot of slack.

And as as a result,
we don’t absorb shock very well.

And we are in a time of incredible shock.

JD: Clearly, this is hugely important
right now during COVID-19.

How important is it going to be
to consider this in the future?

ST: It’s absolutely essential,

because what we’re seeing in COVID-19

is just the start of what we’re going
to see as a result of climate change.

We know that natural hazards
and weather phenomena

are increasing in frequency and severity.

And as we have more
and more people in the world,

the weather and our populations interact
in a way that becomes very dangerous.

So we need to start being incredibly
intentional and incredibly thoughtful

about how we build cushion and slack

and really resilient systems,

so that when we experience
a hurricane or a flood or a drought

or, God forbid, another pandemic,
which we think is likely,

we have the systems in place

so that 30 million people
don’t lose their jobs almost overnight

and that we don’t have to spend
1.6 million dollars in Colorado alone

to dispose of carcasses of animals
that were intended to be people’s food.

We need to create systems
that can absorb these challenges.

JD: What are some of the things
that we can do as individuals,

you know, as we move forward.

What’s some of the advice
you would have for everybody

as we think about the next few years?

ST: I think, as I said,
it’s a whole systems approach.

So on the individual level, thinking about
where your family’s challenges are

or where your weaknesses might be.

So that might look like

holding a little extra food
or saving a little extra money -

I realize that’s incredibly difficult,

especially in these incredibly
difficult economic times -

but creating more family resilience.

Also buying some food more locally,
having businesses locally that you support

so you’re not dependent
on these long supply chains.

And then businesses investing
and having a little extra capital around

so they don’t have to lay off everybody.

I recognize that investors
don’t always love that;

they want you to spend the money.

But we might need to invest in that -

in having some cushion,
having some capital.

And then the last thing is,
on the government side,

we need to elect politicians
who have smart growth policies

and resilient economic
and environmental policies.

And so we have to vote;
we have to vote for those things.

JD: Sarah, well, thank you
for sharing all that perspective.

That gives us all a lot that we can do
to help with, you know, really,

the next chapter in this trade-off
between resiliency and efficiency.

I hope we can continue the conversation,
but thank you for being here today,

and we’re so grateful for your work

in helping us get out
of this current situation we’re in.

ST: Thank you for having me.

JD: Thank you, Sarah.

抄写员:Eunice Tan
审稿人:Peter Van de Ven

Jeremy Duhon:科罗拉多州
于 3 月开始

,其中
COVID-19 病例数最多。

从那时起,国家
一直在努力让他们失望。

Geospiza 的创始人 Sarah Tuneberg

也加入了我的行列,今年早些时候州长任命她

领导科罗拉多州的冠状病毒
创新响应团队。

莎拉,很
高兴今天有你和我们在一起。

现在,您从私营部门

转为
政府监督中的关键角色。

告诉我们
迄今为止最令人大开眼界的事情。

莎拉·图内伯格:我做到了。

因此,在从事应急
管理和公共卫生工作之后,

我联合创办了一家公司
,与大型公司

合作,帮助他们管理
和规划气候变化

,真正
管理和降低气候风险。

因此
,在政府

中担任这个角色非常有趣,

因为我觉得我的
学习真的完成了一个完整的循环。

在我在 Geospiza 的角色中,

领导该团队
并与我们的客户合作,

我们一直在努力
实现复原力。

我们正在帮助他们建立
更有弹性的供应链,

更有弹性的收入模式。

我有这样的想法

,也许弹性和效率
是同一枚硬币的两个方面。

在我在该州的新角色中,
致力于 COVID 工作,

我真的看到了这一点,
而且我看到它真的来了一个完整的循环。

我已经在私营部门看到它

,现在看到
它如何真正影响政府

、我们的纳税人和我们所有人。

JD:这很有趣。

我很想进一步
权衡这种权衡。

那么,有什么具体

例子可以说明效率实际上如何
使我们的弹性降低?

ST:

所以我在 COVID 中特别看到的最有趣的例子之一

是,在 3 月份,随着我们开始
经历越来越多的疾病,

我们的肉类加工能力出现了巨大的中断。

因此,在肉类加工设施中,
人们的工作非常非常紧密——有

利于效率,但
不利于疾病传播。

嗯,实际上,
对于疾病传播来说真的很棒,

但这不是我们想要的。

因此,在 COVID 的早期,

人们在肉类加工设施中非常密切地合作

,我们
在美国爆发了第一批疫情。

生产我们吃的肉的工厂化养殖系统

非常有效,以至于任何故障
或任何形式的放缓,

正如我们所看到的,因为植物
因为爆发而不得不关闭,都

支持了整个系统。

在科罗拉多州以及
中西部和西部的各州,

我们看到大量

动物无法转移
到这种处理能力中——

农场和牧场没有足够的空间——

而这些动物
,数以万计,

不得不 被宰杀。

这是双重可怕的,
因为当时有数百万人

因新冠病毒
而失业并前往食品银行,

而我们的肉类系统拥有所有这些过剩的产能

然后纳税人不得不
为所有的处置提供资金 那些尸体。

因此,如此高效的系统
无法吸收任何冲击或松弛,

并且变得非常有问题。

JD:是的,这
在很多方面确实是毁灭性的。

为什么公司和个人

真的很难理解
这种弹性需求?

我的意思是,这是它的长期方面吗?

我的意思是,
在这种权衡方面,我们为什么不做得更好呢?

ST:我自己仍然在
努力理解这一点,

但我有几个假设。

首先是我们强调
精益,

即真正
从每一美元中榨取每一分利润和每一分钱的企业。

在此过程中,

我们创建了即时
、超、超高效的系统。

而且我们不会留下任何懈怠,
我们不会留下任何挤压,

因为我们想要
我们可以获得的每一点利润。

这让我们
处于一个非常脆弱的状态。

另一个有趣的例子

是,几年前飓风玛丽亚摧毁了
波多黎各,

我们失去了 10
种顶级处方药的使用权。

因为我们的系统非常高效

,我们的处理
能力如此集中——

因为这让我们能够

利用训练有素的工人
和真正高效的运输系统

——当玛丽亚摧毁这些工厂时

,整个世界都无法
获得真正重要的药物。

所以我们一遍又一遍地看到这一点,
而且我们会看到更多。

JD:是的,这个例子让我想,
这是一个普遍的问题,我的意思是

,它是
整个世界的一个统一问题,

还是某些
国家真的在

这种长期思考
和对弹性的需求上更加挣扎?

ST:我认为我们尤其
在发达的西方经济体、

西方民主经济体中看到了这一点,

我们强调利润
,我们强调真正的效率,

就像我说的那样。

我们
不仅在全球范围内

看到它,而且在我们所有的系统中都看到了它。

因此,除了

在大公司
和我们的政府中看到它之外,

我们
还在我们的个人家庭中真正经历过很多次。

我们在统计数据
中看到,很少有人有足够的积蓄

来支付断臂
和可能发生的保险费用

或车祸
以及必须支付的保费。

我们只是不给
自己太多的懈怠。

结果,
我们不能很好地吸收冲击。

我们正处于一个令人难以置信的震惊时期。

JD:显然,这
在 COVID-19 期间非常重要。

将来考虑这一点有多重要?

ST:这绝对是必要的,

因为我们在 COVID-19 中看到

的只是我们
将看到的气候变化结果的开始。

我们知道自然灾害
和天气现象

的频率和严重程度正在增加。

随着
世界上有越来越多的人

,天气和我们的人口
以一种变得非常危险的方式相互作用。

因此,我们需要开始非常有
意识地

思考我们如何建立缓冲和松弛

以及真正有弹性的系统,

这样当我们
经历飓风、洪水或干旱,

或者,上帝保佑,另一场
我们认为可能的大流行时,

我们的系统已经到位,

这样 3000 万人
就不会几乎在一夜之间失去工作

,而且我们不必
仅在科罗拉多州就花费 160 万美元

来处理
原本作为人们食物的动物尸体。

我们需要
创建能够应对这些挑战的系统。

JD:

你知道,在我们前进的过程中,我们个人可以做哪些事情。

当我们考虑未来几年时,您会对每个人有什么建议?

ST:我认为,正如我所说,
这是一个完整的系统方法。

所以在个人层面上,
想想你的家庭面临的挑战在哪里,

或者你的弱点在哪里。

因此,这可能看起来像是

多吃一点食物
或节省一点额外的钱——

我意识到这非常困难,

尤其是在这些极其
困难的经济时期——

但要创造更多的家庭韧性。

还要更多地在当地购买一些食物,
在当地经营你支持的企业,

这样你就不会
依赖这些漫长的供应链。

然后企业投资
并拥有一些额外的资本,

因此他们不必裁员。

我认识到投资者
并不总是喜欢这一点。

他们要你花钱。

但我们可能需要在这方面进行投资

——拥有一些缓冲,
拥有一些资本。

最后一件事是,
在政府方面,

我们需要选出
拥有明智的增长政策

和有弹性的经济
和环境政策的政客。

所以我们必须投票;
我们必须为这些事情投票。

JD:莎拉,嗯,谢谢
你分享所有这些观点。

这给了我们很多我们可以做
的帮助,你知道,真的,

在弹性和效率之间权衡的下一章。

我希望我们可以继续对话,
但感谢您今天来到这里

,我们非常感谢

您帮助
我们摆脱目前所处的困境。

ST:感谢您邀请我。

JD:谢谢你,莎拉。