US politics isnt broken. Its fixed Katherine M. Gehl

Transcriber:

Everything I need to know about politics,

I learned from cheese.

For the last decade of my business career,

I ran a 250-million-dollar
food company in Wisconsin.

And yes, we made cheese.

If customers liked my cheese, I did well.

If they didn’t, they bought cheese
from someone else and I did less well.

That’s healthy competition.

Healthy competition incentivizes
businesses to make better products.

Better products equals happier customers

and happier customers
equals successful businesses.

Win-win.

Now, while I was running Gehl Foods,

I was also deeply engaged in

and increasingly frustrated by politics.

The more frustrated I got,

the more I wondered
why competition in politics

didn’t deliver the same kind
of win-win results.

How did the Democrats
and the Republicans keep doing so well

when their customers,
that’s us, are so unhappy?

Why is the politics industry win-lose?

They win.

We lose.

The answer?

It turns out that one thing
almost all Americans agree on,

“Washington is broken,”

is also one thing we’re all wrong about.

Washington isn’t broken,

it’s doing exactly
what it’s designed to do.

It’s just not designed to serve us,
the citizens, the public interest.

Most of the rules in politics
are designed and continuously fine-tuned

by and for the benefit
of private gain-seeking organizations.

That’s the two parties,
a textbook duopoly,

and the surrounding companies
in the business of politics.

And they’re all doing great.

Even as the American public
has never been more dissatisfied.

Said another way,
politics isn’t broken, it’s fixed.

This is a guiding principle
of politics industry theory,

the nonpartisan body of work
that I originated and have championed

over the last seven years.

Now, before I go further,

I should tell you I’m not
on the red team or the blue team.

I call myself politically homeless,
which may resonate with some of you.

And my work doesn’t focus blame
on individual politicians

on either side of the duopoly.

The root cause
of our political dysfunction,

the cause that endures
across all election cycles

and all administrations

is the system,

the perverted rules of the game,

the rules of the game in politics

even make prisoners
of our senators and representatives.

Their only option is lockstep allegiance
to their side of the divide.

So what do we do about it?

How do we free our Congress
and make politics win-win?

We change the rules.

But which ones? It’s not what we think.

It’s not gerrymandering,
not the Electoral College,

not the absence of term limits
and not even money in politics, really.

By looking at the system
through a competition lens,

politics industry theory
identifies the two rules

that are both our greatest obstacles
and our greatest opportunities.

They’ve been hiding in plain sight.

Let’s start with bad rule number one:

party primaries.

You all know primaries,

those first round elections
that we mostly ignore,

the ones that identify
the single Republican

and the single Democrat who can appear
on the November general election ballot.

Party primaries have become
low turnout elections

dominated by highly ideological voters
and special interests.

Candidates know
that the only way to make it

to the general election ballot in November

is to win the favor of these
more extreme partisans in the primary.

So candidates from both parties
have little choice

but to move towards those extremes.

Why does this matter?

Because it dramatically affects governing,
and not in a good way.

Imagine you’re a member of Congress.

You’re deciding how to vote
on a bipartisan bill

that addresses
a critical national challenge.

You might ask yourself,
is this a good idea?

Is this what the majority
of my constituents want?

But that’s not how it works
in the politics industry.

Instead, the question
that matters most to you is,

will I win my next party primary
if I vote for this bill?

The answer is almost always no.

Consensus solutions
don’t win party primaries.

Let’s illustrate this key design flaw
with a Venn diagram.

In the current system,
there’s virtually no intersection,

no connection between Congress
acting in the public interest

and the likelihood
of their getting reelected.

If America’s elected representatives
do their jobs the way we need them to,

they’re likely to lose those jobs.

That is crazy.

No wonder Congress
doesn’t get anything done.

OK, now let’s talk
about bad rule number two:

plurality voting,

which I’ll explain in just a moment.

In any other industry
as big and as thriving as politics

with this much customer dissatisfaction
and only two companies,

some entrepreneur would see
a phenomenal business opportunity

and create a new competitor.

But that doesn’t happen in politics.

Our current parties
don’t feel competitive pressure

to serve the public interest,

in large part because of one rule

that keeps out almost all new competition:

plurality voting.

It sounds fancy, but it simply means
the candidate with the most votes wins.

That also seems logical,
but it’s a really bad idea.

Why?

Because in the United States
you can win almost any election,

even if a majority didn’t vote for you.

For example, in this three-way race,

the winner only has
34 percent of the votes.

Sixty-six percent of the voters,
most people, wanted someone else.

With plurality voting,

we may not feel free to vote
for the candidate we really want

because we’re afraid
that we’ll just waste our vote,

or worse, will spoil the election.

So if you think back
to the 2016 presidential race,

voters on the right who liked
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson,

were told by the Republicans,
“Don’t vote for him! He’s just a spoiler.

He’ll take votes away from Trump
and help elect Hillary.”

And voters on the left who liked
Green Party candidate Jill Stein

were told by the Democrats,
“Don’t vote for her. She’s just a spoiler.

She’ll take votes away from Hillary
and help elect Trump.”

The spoiler problem
that comes from plurality voting

is the single biggest reason
almost nobody new outside the duopoly

ever runs or gets any traction

because everyone knows
they don’t stand a chance.

Politics is the only industry
where we’re regularly told

that less competition is better.

And if there’s never any new competition,

the existing parties
aren’t accountable to us for results

because they don’t need us
to like what they’re doing.

They only need us to choose one of them
as the lesser of two evils

or to just stay home.

The founders foresaw our situation
and they warned us.

As when John Adams said,
“There is nothing which I dread so much

as a division of the republic
into two great parties,

each arranged under its leader

and concerting measures
in opposition to each other.”

Now, there’s nothing
inherently wrong with parties

or even having only two major parties.

The problem is the current two
are guaranteed to remain the only two,

regardless of what they do or don’t
get done on behalf of the country.

Does this sound like the best we can do?

Of course not.

So the founders gave us
what they knew we’d need.

They gave us this, our Constitution.

There’s a reason it’s called
the pocket Constitution: it’s short.

Guess what’s not in here –

instructions on how to run our elections.

Crazy rules like party primaries
and plurality voting, they’re made up.

But thanks to what is in here,
Article I, they’re optional.

Article I gives every state the power

to change the rules of election
for Congress at any time.

Personally, I think it now
sounds like the perfect time.

And here’s where we turn nonpartisan
politics industry theory into action.

The political innovation we need
is what I call final-five voting.

With final-five voting,

we make two simple changes
to our elections for Congress.

We get rid of what doesn’t work,

party primaries and plurality voting,

and replace it with what will work:

open top-five primaries

and instant runoffs
in the general election.

Let me explain these changes
with an example of final-five voting

in a hypothetical
and kind of cool election.

So here we have eight candidates
from four different political parties:

Alexander Hamilton,
George Washington, Abigail Adams,

all the way through to Aaron Burr,
ambitious as ever.

Immediately you notice
how diverse this field is.

It’s a primary people would want
to vote in because it’s exciting.

It has experience and vision,

but it’s also young, scrappy and hungry.

OK, maybe not so young.

And because this is an open primary,

all eight candidates
are on the same ballot,

regardless of party.

When the results are in,

the top five finishers move on
to the November election,

again, regardless of party.

In the general election,

voters pick their favorite,
just like always.

But then, if they would like,

they can also rank their second, third,

fourth and last choices.

You may have heard of this idea
as ranked-choice voting.

Here’s where things get interesting.

If this election were
a plurality vote like normal,

Aaron Burr would win because
he has the most first-place votes.

Thirty percent.

But because this is final-five voting,

the winner will be the candidate
who’s most popular with the majority,

not just with a narrow slice of voters.

So we use instant runoffs.

We drop the candidate who came in last

and those who had marked that candidate
as their first choice

get their second choice counted instead.

The process continues
until a candidate emerges with a majority.

It’s just like a series of runoffs.

But instead of having to keep
coming back for another election,

voters simply cast
all their votes at once.

And after those results are in,

Alexander Hamilton wins
with 68 percent of the vote.

Final-five voting is the name

for this combination of top-five primaries

and instant runoff general elections.

We must change both rules at the same time

because it’s how they work in combination

that transforms
the incentives in politics.

The ultimate purpose of final-five voting
is not necessarily to change who wins,

it’s to change what the winners
are incentivized to do.

Under this system,
the message to Congress is

“do your job or lose your job,”

innovate, reach across the aisle
whenever it’s helpful,

and come up with real solutions
to our problems

and create new opportunities for progress

or be guaranteed
new and healthy competition

in the next election.

Final-five voting
gives voters more choice,

more voice and most importantly,
better results.

I like to call it free-market politics

because it will deliver the best
of what healthy competition delivers

in any industry:

innovation, results and accountability.

Now, before you think
that I’m just making a naive overpromise

of some crazy, unattainable utopia,

I want to clarify that I’m not.

I agree with Winston Churchill

when he said,

“Democracy is the worst form
of government out there,

except when compared to all the others.”

Democracy is messy and hard,

and what we have now

is messy, hard and bad results,

really bad results.

With final-five voting we’ll have messy,
hard and good results to show for it.

And perhaps the most
amazing part of all of this,

final-five voting
is powerful and achievable.

We now have proof.

In 2017,

I published my early work
on politics industry theory

through Harvard Business School
with my coauthor Michael Porter.

The report made its way to Alaska
where Scott Kendall read it,

and then he took action.

Scott used the work
to design a ballot initiative,

including these new rules.

Just last month, November 2020,

Alaska voters passed this initiative,

and Alaska became
the first state in the nation

to choose healthy competition
in elections for Congress.

They won’t be the last.

It’s devastating to really face

how little we’ve come
to expect from our politics.

We think this is normal.

We complain about
it, but we’ve almost given up believing

that it could ever be different.

But this is no way to run
the shining city on a hill

that is America.

We can choose different.

Our Constitution gives us that power

and, I believe, the responsibility

to remake our politics when we need to –

and we need to.

With the greatest urgency
and without fatigue,

we must aggressively reclaim
the enormous promise

of the great American experiment,

of our American politics,

our politics.

Not red politics. Not blue politics, ours.

Thank you.

抄写员:

我需要了解的有关政治的一切,都是

从奶酪中学到的。

在我商业生涯的最后十年里,

我在威斯康星州经营着一家价值 2.5 亿美元的
食品公司。

是的,我们做了奶酪。

如果顾客喜欢我的奶酪,我做得很好。

如果他们不这样做,他们就会从别人那里买奶酪
,而我做得不太好。

这是良性竞争。

良性竞争激励
企业制造更好的产品。

更好的产品等于更快乐的客户

,更快乐的客户
等于成功的企业。

双赢。

现在,在我经营 Gehl Foods 的同时,

我也深深地卷入

了政治之中,并且对政治越来越感到沮丧。

我越沮丧,

我就越想知道
为什么政治竞争

没有带来同样
的双赢结果。

当他们的客户,
也就是我们,如此不满意时,民主党人和共和党人是如何保持如此出色的表现的?

为什么政界会输赢?

他们赢了。

我们输了。

答案?

事实证明,
几乎所有美国人都同意的一件事

,“华盛顿被打破了”,

这也是我们都错了的一件事。

华盛顿并没有崩溃,

它正在
做它设计要做的事情。

它的目的不是为我们
、公民和公共利益服务。

大多数政治规则都是


私人谋取利益的组织设计和不断微调的。

那是两党,
一个教科书式的双头垄断,

以及周围
的政治企业。

他们都做得很好。

即使美国公众
从未如此不满。

换句话说,
政治没有被破坏,它是固定的。


是政治产业理论的指导原则,这

是我

在过去七年中发起并倡导的无党派工作。

现在,在我走得更远之前,

我应该告诉你我
不在红队或蓝队。

我称自己在政治上无家可归,
这可能会引起你们中的一些人的共鸣。

我的工作并没有把责任

归咎于双头垄断双方的个别政客。

我们的政治功能障碍的根本原因,

贯穿所有选举周期

和所有政府的原因

是制度

,扭曲

的游戏规则,政治游戏规则

甚至使
我们的参议员和代表成为俘虏。

他们唯一的选择是步调一致地效忠
于他们的分歧一方。

那么我们该怎么办呢?

我们如何解放我们的国会
并使政治双赢?

我们改变规则。

但哪些? 这不是我们想的那样。

这不是选区划分,
不是选举团,

不是没有任期限制
,甚至不是政治上的钱,真的。

通过从竞争的角度看待系统,

政治产业理论
确定了两条规则

,它们既是我们最大的障碍
,也是我们最大的机遇。

他们一直躲在众人的视线中。

让我们从错误的第一条规则开始:

政党初选。

你们都知道初选,

那些我们大多忽略的第一轮选举

,那些确定

可以出现
在 11 月大选选票上的单一共和党人和单一民主党人的选举。

政党初选已成

为由高度意识形态选民
和特殊利益集团主导的低投票率选举。

候选人知道
,要想

参加 11 月的大选投票,唯一的办法就是在初选

中赢得这些
更极端的党派人士的青睐。

因此,双方的候选人

别无选择,只能走向那些极端。

为什么这很重要?

因为它极大地影响了治理,
而且不是以一种好的方式。

想象一下你是国会议员。

您正在决定如何对
一项

解决重大国家挑战的两党法案进行投票。

你可能会问自己
,这是个好主意吗?

这是我的大多数
选民想要的吗?

但这不是它
在政治行业的运作方式。

相反,
对你来说最重要的问题是,如果我投票支持这项法案,

我会赢得下一次党内初选
吗?

答案几乎总是否定的。

共识解决方案
不会赢得党内初选。

让我们用维恩图来说明这个关键的设计缺陷

在目前的系统中,
几乎没有十字路口,

国会之间没有联系
,以公众利益行事


他们被重新选择的可能性。

如果美国民选代表
按照我们需要的方式完成工作,

他们很可能会失去这些工作。

这很疯狂。

难怪国会
什么都没做。

好的,现在让我们
谈谈错误的第二条规则:

复数投票

,我稍后会解释。

在任何其他
像政治这样大而繁荣的行业中,

客户的不满如此之多,
而且只有两家公司,

一些企业家会看到
一个惊人的商机

并创造一个新的竞争对手。

但这不会发生在政治上。

我们目前的政党
并没有感受到

为公共利益服务的竞争压力,这

在很大程度上是因为有一条规则

可以阻止几乎所有新的竞争:

多数投票。

这听起来很花哨,但这只是意味着
得票最多的候选人获胜。

这似乎也合乎逻辑,
但这是一个非常糟糕的主意。

为什么?

因为在美国
你几乎可以赢得任何选举,

即使多数人没有投票给你。

例如,在这场三人赛跑中

,获胜者只有
34% 的选票。

百分之六十六的选民,
大多数人,想要其他人。

在多数投票中,

我们可能无法随意投票
给我们真正想要的候选人,

因为我们
害怕我们只会浪费我们的选票,

或者更糟的是,会破坏选举。

因此,如果你回想一下
2016 年的总统竞选,共和党人告诉

喜欢
自由党候选人加里·约翰逊的右翼选民


“不要投票给他!他只是一个破坏者。

他会从特朗普
和 帮助选举希拉里。”

民主党告诉喜欢
绿党候选人吉尔斯坦

的左翼选民,
“不要投票给她。她只是一个破坏者。

她会从希拉里手中夺走选票
并帮助选举特朗普。”

来自多数投票的剧透问题

几乎没有人在双头垄断之外的新人

运行或获得任何牵引力的最大原因,

因为每个人都知道
他们没有机会。

政治
是我们经常被

告知竞争越少越好的唯一行业。

如果没有任何新的竞争

,现有的各方
就不需要对我们的结果负责,

因为他们不需要
我们喜欢他们正在做的事情。

他们只需要我们选择其中一个
作为两害相权取其轻,

或者只是呆在家里。

创始人预见到了我们的处境
,并警告了我们。

正如约翰亚当斯所说:
“没有什么比

共和国分裂
成两个大党更让我害怕的了,

每个党在其领导人的领导下安排,

并采取一致的
措施相互对立。”

现在
,政党

或什至只有两个主要政党在本质上并没有错。

问题是目前的
两个保证仍然是唯一的两个,

无论他们代表国家做什么或不做什么

这听起来像是我们能做的最好的吗?

当然不是。

所以创始人给了我们
他们知道我们需要的东西。

他们给了我们这个,我们的宪法。

它被称为袖珍宪法是有原因的
:它很短。

猜猜这里没有什么——

关于如何进行选举的说明。

像政党初选和多数投票这样的疯狂规则
,它们是编造出来的。

但是由于这里的内容,
第一条,它们是可选的。

第一条赋予每个州

随时更改国会选举规则的权力

就个人而言,我认为现在
听起来是最佳时机。

在这里,我们将无党派的
政治产业理论转化为行动。

我们需要的政治创新
就是我所说的最后五人投票。

通过最后五轮投票,

我们对国会选举进行了两个简单的
更改。

我们摆脱了不起作用的东西,

政党初选和多数投票

,取而代之的是可行的东西:

开放前五名的初选


大选中的即时决选。

让我
用一个假设的、很酷的选举中最后五人投票的例子来解释这些变化

所以在这里我们有
来自四个不同政党的八名候选人:

亚历山大·汉密尔顿、
乔治·华盛顿、阿比盖尔·亚当斯,

一直到亚伦·伯尔,
一如既往地雄心勃勃。

您会立即注意到
该领域的多样性。

这是人们
想要投票的初选,因为它令人兴奋。

它有经验和远见,

但它也年轻、好斗和饥饿。

好吧,也许不是那么年轻。

而且因为这是一个公开的初选,

所有八名候选人
都在同一张选票上,

不分党派。

当结果出来时

,前五名的选手将再次
参加 11 月的选举

,无论政党如何。

在大选中,

选民
像往常一样选择他们最喜欢的。

但是,如果他们愿意,

他们也可以对他们的第二个、第三个、

第四个和最后一个选择进行排名。

您可能听说过这个想法
作为排名选择投票。

这就是事情变得有趣的地方。

如果这次选举
像往常一样是多数票,那么

亚伦伯尔将获胜,因为
他拥有最多的第一名选票。

百分之三十。

但由于这是五强投票

,获胜者将是
最受大多数人欢迎的候选人,

而不仅仅是一小部分选民。

所以我们使用即时径流。

我们放弃了最后进来的候选人,

而那些将该候选人标记
为他们的第一选择的人

将他们的第二选择计算在内。

这个过程一直持续
到候选人以多数票出现。

这就像一系列径流。

但是
,选民不必再回来参加另一次选举,

而是
一次投下所有选票。

在这些结果出来之后,

亚历山大·汉密尔顿
以 68% 的选票获胜。

最后五名投票是

前五名初选

和即时决选大选组合的名称。

我们必须同时改变这两个规则,

因为它们是如何结合起来

改变政治激励机制的。

五强投票的最终目的
不一定是改变谁获胜,

而是改变获胜者
被激励去做的事情。

在这个系统下,
向国会传达的信息是

“做你的工作或失去你的工作”,

创新,在
有帮助时跨越过道

,为我们的问题提出真正的解决方案

,创造新的进步机会

或保证
新的健康

下次选举的竞争。

五强投票
给了选民更多的选择,

更多的发言权,最重要的是,
更好的结果。

我喜欢称其为自由市场政治,

因为它将
提供健康竞争

在任何行业中提供的最好的东西:

创新、结果和问责制。

现在,在你
认为我只是

对一些疯狂的、无法实现的乌托邦做出天真的过度承诺之前,

我想澄清一下,我不是。

我同意温斯顿丘吉尔

的说法,

“民主是最糟糕
的政府形式,

除非与其他所有形式相比。”

民主是混乱和艰难的,

而我们现在所拥有的

是混乱、艰难和糟糕的结果,

非常糟糕的结果。

在最后五场投票中,我们将获得混乱、
艰难和良好的结果。

也许
所有这一切中最令人惊奇的部分是,

五强投票
是强大且可以实现的。

我们现在有了证据。

2017 年,

与合著者迈克尔·波特通过哈佛商学院发表了我关于政治产业理论的早期著作。

这份报告被送到了阿拉斯加
,斯科特·肯德尔在那里阅读了它,

然后他采取了行动。

斯科特利用这项
工作设计了一项投票倡议,

包括这些新规则。

就在上个月,即 2020 年 11 月,

阿拉斯加选民通过了这项倡议

,阿拉斯加成为
全国第一个在国会选举

中选择健康竞争
的州。

他们不会是最后一个。

真正面对

我们对政治的期望是如此之少,这是毁灭性的。

我们认为这是正常的。

我们抱怨
它,但我们几乎已经放弃

相信它可能会有所不同。

但这并不是
在美国的山丘上经营这座闪亮的城市

我们可以选择不同的。

我们的宪法赋予我们这种权力

,我相信,

当我们需要——而且我们需要的时候,我们有责任重塑我们的政治

。 我们必须

以最大的紧迫感
和毫不疲倦地

积极地收回

伟大的美国实验

、我们的美国政治、

我们的政治的巨大希望。

不是红色政治。 不是蓝色政治,我们的。

谢谢你。