From Confirmation Bias to A New Higher Possibility

[Music]

when i was

five years old my best friend in the

world

explained to me that the chocolate

cereal at her house

was good for us that’s right it

contained

all the vitamins and minerals we would

ever need to grow up big and strong

wait what seriously

i never knew that and after tasting it

i was positive she must be right

but as i learned a little bit more about

nutrition and

product labels new information started

creeping in

and my perspective started to shift and

even though i really

wanted her to be right i realized

we were wrong a few years after the

serial incident i overheard some adults

talking at a family gathering they were

talking about a friend of theirs who had

accidentally gotten pregnant later in

life

wait what accidentally gotten pregnant

no see i was eight and i knew

how babies were made and i was pretty

sure

nobody could do that by accident

i went home and talked to my mom about

it and i was pretty sure

she would say i was right and they were

wrong

you can imagine my surprise when i

learned from her that

honey sometimes people who love each

other

do that because it feels good

it’s even called making love

oh i was eight and that

no boys were gross and the process of

making babies was disgusting

well since then i’ve incorporated

some new information and my perspective

on that

has also shifted significantly

dare i say i was wrong

now the process of incorporating new

information and shifting beliefs

it’s a natural part of learning and we

do it very easily when we’re young

because we come from a beginner’s mind

where it’s okay to be wrong we’re

supposed to be learning things

being wrong is even cute sometimes but

as we get older we want to be more and

more

right about stuff being right becomes

very

very important and this is where the

problems begin

you see our perspective forms our world

view a lens through which we see things

and when we’re young our world view is a

little flexible because we’re always

incorporating new information

but as we get older our perspective

shifting

sort starts to stall or even halt

completely

and we human beings well meaning

we start pouring cement around it

and the new information as it goes by is

harder to get in

but if it agrees with our world

perspective it’s welcome

but if it doesn’t then it sort of hits

that

cement wall if you will when does this

start happening

and why confirmation

bias it’s a term that was coined in 1970

by english psychologist peter wassen

he found that people had a tendency

to prefer information that confirmed or

supported their existing beliefs

and they paid more attention to it and

they

overlooked or ignored that information

which did not

meet their existing beliefs in fact

a stanford did a study on this and they

found

that when participants were given false

information

and then information that clearly showed

that the information was false

that participants still clung to that

initial information

the study concluded saying that once

established beliefs

are remarkably resilient in the face of

empirical challenge

they were very hard to overturn

interesting so yeah there’s a sweet

seductive

pull of being right i’ve fallen into it

many times but if we’re actually

ignoring information that’s factually

correct

just because it doesn’t meet our current

world

view and we’re pretending it’s

not real then we’re sort of living in a

bit of a fantasy land

a fairy tale if you will

so i’d like to take you on a little

journey and this journey

begins with a fairy tale perhaps you

know it

once upon a time there was a little

mermaid who lived in a castle

under the sea she had a beautiful

singing voice

she was happy but restless she was ready

to see

something new so one day she ventures to

the surface

and she’s sitting on a rock happily

singing when along

comes a boat with a handsome prince

the prince is captivated by her

beautiful voice

but wouldn’t you know it before they can

meet

a storm comes up and rages and knocks

the prince unconscious and overboard

the mermaid rushes in and rescues him

and lays him gently on the beach

she is smitten he’s a handsome prince

after all

so she makes a deal to become human

so she can live with him forever

all she has to do is give up her view

beautiful voice

she does the two fall in love and live

happily ever after

lovely right a happy hopeful tale about

sacrificing in the name of true love

but let’s continue our journey and see

if we can look at this same tale

from another perspective

once upon a time there was a little

mermaid lived in a castle

under the sea yada yada singing

surface boat prince storm got it

mermaid rescues him lays him gently on

the beach

good so far right but then

what happens she gets it into her head

that she’s in love with him and makes a

deal to become

human with a witch all she has to do

is give up her friends

her family her royal crown

and get this her voice

she agrees to all of these terms without

negotiation

because she believes she must be in love

with the prince

and be with him forever the prince she

just met

a few hours ago oh wait technically they

haven’t even met because he was

unconscious

and all right

no matter the deal is done and she’s

turned human and deposited on the beach

the prince finds her naked on the beach

and falls for her immediately he assumes

that she’s also been a victim

of a shipwreck as he has but with no

voice the mermaid cannot explain to him

that she is no victim she’s actually the

hero

that rescued him when he was drowning

and now she’s the one who gave up

everything to be with him in the hopes

that he would

also kind of like to be with her forever

that said now the princess has no voice

to answer him

and so she can only agree in a series of

pathetic

smiley doe-eyed nods

really really and now they can

live happily ever after with a

relationship that’s based on a

serious lack of information and some

really

misguided beliefs i don’t think so

now that i could see from this

perspective i

saw the little mermaid for what it was a

dangerous

slippery slope fairy tale with some

deeply

misguided beliefs seated underneath no

no

it was wrong i was positive

and i took great joy in pointing this

out

to everyone else who would listen

can’t you see how they’re treating

this entire tale can’t you see what

they’re trying to teach

our children that it’s good to give up

your voice that it’s perfectly fine to

give up who you are for someone else

that it’s totally fine to neglect your

duties and responsibilities to your

community

and ignore leadership that it’s

perfectly fine

to do this without even negotiating

and signing off on contracts without

reading the fine print

absolutely not i was now on a mission

to reveal the truth of the little

mermaid

until one day when my very own

fairy godparents in the form of

three good friends and a bottle of wine

came to me and said oh kimberly

don’t you realize you need to stop

hating on the little mermaid

you need to show her some love some

compassion

don’t you realize she just made mistakes

she was doing the best she could with

what she had at the time

many of us have made the same mistakes

she has

even you wait

what no no no no no no no no

i would never make the same choices she

made

never never

so you can tell this is going to end

badly for me right

so never say never especially not when

you’re with your three

fairy godparents in a bottle of wine it

was a heated discussion

for sure that evening i didn’t want to

be wrong i

loved being right about the little

mermaid

but as the night wore on i took a long

hard compassionate loving look back at

my own life

and i saw that there were times

that i had given up who i really was for

someone else there were times that i’d

failed to be there for people who needed

me

there were times that i had achieved

heroic deeds only to downplay them later

and there were times that i’d

given up my voice but now that i could

see that

i could decide to make different choices

now that i could see it from this

perspective

i could be better next time i could

do things differently and i liked that

i had shifted with a little help from my

friends

so if you’ve come along on this journey

with me today maybe you’ve felt

something

shift for you as well if you have it was

actually two things shifting

one is your willingness to incorporate

new information

and the second is your willingness to

break through that

concrete and shift your belief a little

bit

about what the new information meant

now shifting beliefs is hard it’s

scary and depending on how long you’ve

held those beliefs

it can even feel terrifying and our

fight or

flight can kick in that is exactly what

i was doing with my fairy godparents

that night

i was pushing away the information i was

running from it

why because i was scared i was scared i

was wrong

i was scared i was wrong about the

little mermaid sure but i was scared

that i was wrong about me

about how i was showing up in the world

and once i shifted i realized

that i could do something about it and i

felt a lot better in fact it felt

not scary at all but like a weight had

been lifted

it felt like i was stepping out of some

weird sticky fairy tale i

told for myself and back into my

real life now remember that stanford

study

that showed that people ignore

information when it doesn’t fit their

world view

well harvard did a similar study and

they found very similarly that

76 of people clung to the rightness of

their belief

even when presented with concrete facts

to the contrary

but they found something else very

hopeful as well

they saw that in that narrow margin of

24

of people who did shift their belief

that they were six

times more likely to achieve their end

goal

so yes shifting your beliefs is hard

scary terrifying difficult

but when we do lovely things can happen

so in fairy tales right and wrong is

often portrayed as good and evil or

black and white but ladies and gentlemen

real life is not a fairy tale

it’s a journey and

it’s a journey of beautiful new

perspectives

it’s not about something silly and

simplistic like being right or wrong

so here we are you and me

in real life and i encourage you i

invite you to set down that sticky

compelling need to be right and instead

walk into a new world

a world where it’s okay to be wrong

where it’s okay to think from a

beginner’s mind

it’s okay to believe that we all have

very godparent

best friends who are willing to help us

along this journey when we get stuck

a world where making love is about

way more than making babies and a world

where that delicious chocolate cereal

well maybe not nutritious

can feed us in a lot of different ways

so i’ll leave you with this i believe

that if we’re able to set down the fairy

tale

of being right and we’re able to shake

off some of that cement and shift our

perspective

and we’re able to allow all the

information

in whether it agrees with us or not

that we can enjoy this glorious

delicious journey called

real life and we can do it

happily ever after

you

[音乐]

当我

五岁的时候,我世界上最好的朋友

向我解释说,

她家

的巧克力麦片对我们有好处,是的,它

含有

我们长大壮大所需要的所有维生素和矿物质

等等。

说真的,我从来不知道,在品尝之后

我很肯定她一定是对的,

但是当我对营养和产品标签有了更多的了解时

新的信息开始

悄悄出现

,我的观点开始转变,

即使我真的

希望她是对的 连环事件发生

几年后,我意识到我们错了

我无意中听到一些成年人

在家庭聚会上谈论他们在

谈论他们的一个朋友,他

后来意外怀孕了

等等意外怀孕了

没有看到我八岁,我知道

婴儿是怎么生出来的,我很

确定

没有人会意外地做到这一点。

我回家和妈妈谈了

这件事,我很确定

她会说我是对的,而且 嘿,

了,当我从她那里得知

亲爱的,有时彼此

相爱的人

这样做时,你可以想象我的惊讶,因为这感觉很好

,甚至被称为做爱

哦,我八岁了,

没有男孩很恶心,生

孩子的过程很恶心

好吧,从那以后,我吸收了

一些新信息,我

对此的看法也发生了重大变化

之所以年轻,

是因为我们来自初学者的思维

,错误是

可以的,我们应该学习

错误的东西有时甚至很可爱,但是

随着年龄的增长,我们希望

对事情越来越正确,正确变得

非常重要 这就是

问题开始的地方

你看到我们的观点形成了我们的

世界观我们通过它看到事物的镜头

当我们年轻时我们的世界观

有点灵活因为 因为我们总是在

整合新信息,

但是随着年龄的增长,我们的观点

转变开始停止甚至完全停止

,我们人类很好的意思是

我们开始在它周围倒水泥

,随着新信息的流逝,

很难进入,

但是 如果它与我们的世界观一致,

那么它是受欢迎的,

但如果它不那么它就会撞到

水泥墙上,如果你愿意的话,它什么时候

开始发生

以及为什么确认

偏见这是一个由英国心理学家彼得·瓦森在 1970 年创造的术语,

他发现 人们

倾向于偏爱那些证实或

支持他们现有信念的信息,

并且他们更加关注它,

他们

忽略或忽略

了不

符合他们现有信念的信息

事实上,斯坦福大学对此进行了研究,他们

发现当 参与者被提供了虚假

信息

,然后信息清楚地

表明信息是虚假的

,参与者仍然坚持

初步信息

该研究得出的结论是,一旦

确立的信念

在面对经验挑战时具有显着的弹性,

它们就很难推翻

有趣所以是的,有一种甜美的

诱惑

力,我已经

多次陷入其中,但如果我们真的

忽略事实上正确的信息,

只是因为它不符合我们当前的

世界观,我们假装它

不是真实的,那么我们有点生活

在一个幻想的土地上,

如果你愿意的话,一个童话故事,

所以我想 带你踏上一段小

旅行,这段旅程

从一个童话开始,也许你

知道

从前有一条

小美人鱼住在海底的一座城堡里

,她的歌声优美,

她快乐但不安,她准备

好了 看到

一些新事物,所以有一天她

冒险浮出水面

,她正坐在一块岩石上开心地

唱歌,

当一艘船与一位英俊的王子一起出现时

,王子被她美丽的声音迷住了,

但 在他们遇到暴风雨来临之前你不知道吗?

暴风雨来袭,

把王子打昏,

落水 美人鱼冲进来救了他

,把他轻轻地放在沙滩上

她被迷住了 毕竟他是个英俊的王子

所以她做了一个 交易成为人类,

这样她就可以永远和他一起生活

她所要做的就是放弃她的看法

美丽的声音

她做到了两人坠入爱河并

幸福地生活在

可爱的权利一个关于以真爱的名义牺牲的幸福充满希望的故事

但是 让我们继续我们的旅程,

看看我们是否可以从另一个角度看这个故事

从前有一条

小美人鱼住

在海底的城堡里亚达亚达唱歌

水面船王子风暴得到它

美人鱼救了他轻轻地把他放在

到目前为止,海滩很好,但后来

发生了什么,她突然

想到她爱上了他,并

与一个女巫达成协议,成为人类她所要做的

就是放弃她的朋友

她的家人她的皇室成员 加冕

并得到这个她的声音

她没有谈判就同意所有这些条款

因为她相信她一定爱上

了王子并永远和他在一起她

几个小时前刚认识的王子哦等等技术上他们

甚至没有见过因为

无论交易完成,他都失去知觉,一切都好,她

变成了人并被放在海滩

上王子发现她在海滩上赤身裸体

并立即爱上了她他

认为她也是海难的受害者

,就像他一样,但是

美人鱼没有声音无法向他

解释她不是受害者她实际上是

在他溺水时救出他的英雄

,现在她是那个放弃

一切与他在一起的人,

希望他

也喜欢和他在一起 她永远

说,现在公主

没有声音回答他

,所以她只能在一系列

可悲的

笑脸中点头表示同意,

真的真的,现在他们可以

从此过上幸福的生活

。 是基于

严重缺乏信息和一些

真正被

误导的信念我不这么认为

现在我可以从这个

角度

看到我看到小美人鱼是一个

危险的

滑坡童话故事下面有一些被

深深

误导的信念 不,

不,

这是错误的

放弃

你的声音很好

为别人放弃你是谁也

很好 忽视

你对社区的职责和责任

并忽视领导是

完全可以

的 在没有

阅读细则的合同上

绝对不是我现在的任务

是揭示小美人鱼的真相,

直到有一天我自己的

仙女教父母以三人的形式出现

好朋友和一瓶酒

来找我说哦,金伯利

,你难道不知道你需要停止

对小美人鱼的仇恨

吗?你需要向她表达一些爱,一些

同情

你不知道她只是犯了错误吗?

以她当时所拥有的,她能做到的最好

,我们中的许多人都犯了同样的错误

即使你等待

什么不不不不不不不不

我永远不会做出她从未做出过的相同选择

所以你可以看出这正在发生

对我来说结局很糟糕,

所以永远不要说永远,尤其是当

你和你的三个

仙女教父母一起喝一瓶酒的时候,那

肯定是一场激烈的讨论,那天晚上我

不想错,我

喜欢对小事做对

美人鱼,

但随着夜幕的降临,我对自己的生活进行了漫长而

富有同情心的爱的回顾

,我看到有些

时候我已经放弃了真正的自己,为

别人而有些时候我

没能在那里 对于需要

我的

人,有时 我取得了

英雄事迹只是为了后来淡化

他们,有时我

放弃了我的声音但现在我可以

看到

我可以决定做出不同的选择

现在我可以从这个角度看到它

我可以更好 下次我可以

做不同的事情,我喜欢在朋友

的帮助下我已经改变了,

所以如果你今天和我一起踏上这段旅程

,也许你也会感觉到

一些

改变,如果你有的话

实际上有两件事在改变,

一是你愿意接受

新信息

,第二是你愿意

突破

具体的东西,改变你对

新信息意味着什么的

信念现在改变信念很难,很

可怕,取决于你多久

持有这些信念,

它甚至会感到恐惧,我们的

战斗或

逃跑可能会开始,这正是

那天晚上

我和我的仙女教父母所做的事情,我正在推开我正在运行的信息

g从它

为什么因为我害怕我害怕

我错了

我害怕我对

小美人鱼的

看法当然是错的但我害怕我对

我如何出现在这个世界上的看法错了

一旦我改变了我就意识到

我可以做点什么,我

感觉好多了,事实上它感觉一点

也不可怕,但就像一个重物

被抬起

了,感觉就像我走出了

我为自己讲述的一些奇怪的粘糊糊的童话故事

,回到了我的

真实世界 现在的生活还记得斯坦福

大学的一项研究

表明,

当信息不符合他们的世界观时,人们会忽略信息,

哈佛大学进行了一项类似的研究,

他们发现非常相似的是,即使向他们提出具体的事实,

76 人仍坚持他们信仰的正确性。

相反,

但他们也发现了其他非常

有希望的事情,

他们看到,在

24 人中,他们确实改变了他们的信念

,即

他们实现最终目标的可能性是他们的六倍,

所以是的,改变了你的 信仰很难

可怕 可怕 困难

但是当我们做可爱的事情时可能会发生

所以在童话故事中对与错

经常被描绘成善恶或

黑白但女士们先生们

现实生活不是童话

而是一段旅程

这是一段旅程 美丽的新

视角

对或错之类的愚蠢和简单化无关,

所以我们是现实生活中的你和我

,我鼓励你,我

邀请你写下那种

令人信服的、令人信服的对正确的需求,而是

走进一个新的世界

一个可以犯错的世界 可以

初学者的角度

思考问题 可以相信我们都有

非常教父

最好的朋友,

当我们陷入困境时,他们愿意帮助我们度过这段旅程

不仅仅是生孩子,还有

一个美味的巧克力

麦片可能没有营养的世界

可以以多种不同的方式养活我们,

所以我会留给你这个我

相信如果我们能够 建立正确的

童话故事

,我们能够

摆脱一些水泥并改变我们的

观点

,我们能够允许所有

信息无论它是否

同意我们,我们都可以享受这

美妙的美味 旅程称为

现实生活,我们可以

在你之后快乐地做它