Climate Change Science and Policy

[Music]

good afternoon

the theme of these series of tedx talks

is on what keeps me up at night

there are a number of different topics

that resonate especially in the current

pandemic

from health to energy security

and technology one common ground for all

of these however

is the similar objectives to facilitate

our survival and the survival of our

societies

this is the one topic that remains to be

independent of political religious or

any other

differences in vision among us how

do they survive within this reality no

one

can stand up and say one topic is more

important than the other

and no one can stand up to and say the

topic does not matter

as much as the other because these all

involve our survival

and are all important this is the very

first principle of democracy the very

first

step in peaceful coexistence amongst the

multicultural

and visionary people the truth of the

matter is that

the world we live in is a complex one

one that involves multiple fronts in the

war for survival

technology matters it matters to enable

us to live longer

better easier and be better press

prospects

bloodshed is a threat a trip that needs

to be dealt with towards a longer

lasting peace

another as important of a matter is the

war we have to win

against nature this is a battle that has

very limited chance for retrial one that

the enemy

has an embedded advantage and a right

to win one that requires extraordinary

efforts

and a unifying masters for all those

involved

one that is not limited to me or to you

or even to our civilization rather this

is the one battle that unifies all those

living on this planet

for a longer lasting survival

we have been fighting this battle for

the entire life

of our species but now we have

identified a name for it that resonates

across the globe

one that everybody relates to and it is

called climate change

what do we really mean by climate change

where they come from who is responsible

for it

these are all the questions that we keep

asking ourselves

and the ones we keep trying to answer in

elections

in research in developing a plan for the

future

but not all these are the right

questions to ask

climate change is not a single

phenomenon

that we need to address it is not an

isolated process that

needs to be reversed it neither is a

socio-political challenge

that they can tackle in demonstration or

marches

nor it is a scientific problem that can

be

handled by researchers and scholars

not alone it is a different phase

of our conflict with nature that has

been happening through millenniums

it requires all of us and requires

all our attention

the best that we can describe and define

climate change

is through facts and observations

what we can observe is that for example

the average temperature of the planet

is increasing annually here is the data

that shows since 1980s the temperature

had gradually increased and stayed up

there

this makes it a factual observation not

an interpretation

not a political argument but a real

observation that we can measure this

does not mean that we have an increased

temperature everywhere around the world

it means the average temperature in our

planet is increasing

we can also measure the level of co2 in

earth’s atmosphere over the years

using ice samples from antarctica these

are the data that we have collected

with known uncertainties and scientific

terminologies

based on scientific methods that have

been proven

is this the cause for climate change

well that would be an interpretation

and not an observation here i would just

stick

with the facts and observations and

leave out any personal

or scientific interpretations of these

data to other experts to do so

since this does not serve the purpose of

our discussion

consequently to the rising temperature

isis starts to melt

as expected we observe that the arctic

ice levels are start shrinking as that

happens

the sea levels are start rising this is

a major issue that is observed daily

in pacific islands or seaside countries

and cities

where the sea levels are taking away a

little lamb from people

every day you can put a stick on the

beach and you can see it happen

this is an observation you look at the

beach

and you identify that life for those

people is changing every day

we also have extreme weather events that

are happening more frequently

does not necessarily mean hotter weather

is going to happen everywhere

it simply means that the strange events

happen more frequently

because the ocean temperature is

changing

because of the melting x and the

consequence of that

the better systems change

these are only a few examples of the

observations we have made

to account for what we call our changing

climate and that’s the magical war

changing

all around us everything is changing and

the reason for it is because the climate

is changing

this implies that the world around us

being temperature

being wetter our everyday life

all different aspects of it is changing

on this

and these changes what we can observe

is what we can agree on and we can

quantify

this is independent from a political

view it doesn’t matter

who you believe in this is what you can

see

i was an official observer at the united

nations climate meetings

in 2015. my first-hand experience with

the negotiations

in these meetings was that of

astonishment followed by disbelief and

finally an

understanding of the huge barrier

between politicians

scientists and industry leaders

the main problem though was that

negotiations are not done honestly

toward a common ground but rather

to simply put the burden on the other

party

but also the issues of feasibility

scientific and technology is sound goals

and the discussions on what we are

aiming for and fighting for

that we cannot achieve it the u.n is

investing greatly on research to prove

that climate change is real

well they should be focusing on research

on means to address the effects we are

already observing and experiencing today

let’s say to prove that climate change

is real identify the person

responsible for it all beyond any doubt

to anybody

that’s the same to us does that solve a

problem

does that bring nations together or does

that make

any difference whatsoever may address in

this crisis

no it does not it just divides people

we have seen this play throughout our

history and they have played similar

roles

in the past over and over again

this time instead of repeating the same

mistakes

let’s change our approach let’s focus on

the problem

rather than the sideshow of who is to

blame and how to make them pay for

this would be a political argument and

we need a scientific and social approach

to solve the issues associated with

climate change

our negotiators and decision makers need

to have a better

appreciation of what each and every

motion they’re taking

and aiming for means in terms of

technology technological capabilities

and scientific merit if they want to

redefine

the issues of climate change if we set

goals that are not achievable

then those who lose in this battle are

us

we should aim for those goals that we

can be sure to meet in the period of

time to step forward

i can list a number of different

problems that i can see

with the current approach that we have

and with a cognitive strategy

from both a scientific and

socio-political point of view

one some objectives are technologically

and scientifically impossible to meet

in some of these cases for example

greenhouse gas emission reduction

for airliners marine transportation of

goods

and how you can reduce the greenhouse

gas emissions associated with that

and how greenhouse gases emission

reductions

affect global trade and economies of

economies and economic developments

by 2050 is it achievable

you have to think about that two we

should enable technology transfers to

under

underdeveloped nations so that they do

not need to

pay the same cost to achieve the same

level of technological advancements as

we have paid

it will be faster it will be easier and

less costly both for the environment and

otherwise

technological embargoes are problematic

we need to open a technology

bank for transfer scientific and

technology developments across

borders

population control is another problem an

important issue that we need to address

in other developed nations

sustainability in energy production is

as

important as it is to look at the

consumption of that

energy number four

populism the burden should be on

industries and governments rather than

people in the first place

for example if we try to enforce capital

trade and

capital related policies at a time of

economic difficulty

it will backfire we need to be business

public perception and we have to start

with what matters

the most today and people can deal with

that

we need to focus our research and

development on the industries and

technologies that matter the most

it’s not about only how we generate

power how do we extract energy it is

also about how do we transform it

how we transport it and how do we

consume it

all of these matter and this all

requires new and revolutionary

approaches to the concepts

rather than just making small tunes into

the technologies

to make instead of making a big

difference let’s start thinking and

realizing that new technologies

that we need are thinking out of the box

we need a new definition for innovation

because what we need goes beyond our

current understanding of the term

innovation

these set forward a fruitful approach in

solving a common problem

the same way we got together to solve

the current pandemic

we have to get together to solve the

problems we face with climate change

answering the question of who did it has

never been a unifying

approach in any conflict or crisis

finding the person to blame

is the minimalist step in a long list

of psychological steps and processes

that are faced

by humans when they’re trying to have

this crisis

they’re finally at the point of

acceptance it is only now

that you start looking for means to

adopt and to address the problem or the

challenge you have in hand

this is the nature of human beings this

is our psychology

if you’re going to fight with nature you

better take advantage of our own

have come a long way to be here but to

accelerate this process going forward

there is only one approach that i can

recommend

finding your common ground amongst all

our people

this common cause is valid for all that

are involved with this idea

one unifying voice that resonates across

the political social economic

and scientific communities

one that aims not to address these

polarizing questions

that i have listed in the beginning of

my talk but rather to deflect the need

to answer them all while addressing the

very nature

of this crisis one that goes beyond the

bounds of greed movements

and extends past the prosperities that

are promised

by the oil and gas and energy

enthusiasts a wall

that satisfies all those that are

involved but only slightly

oh that is the magical trick to a

monumental challenge

that is if one side is all happy

it only could mean that others all of

their needs

are not met at all the common ground

is clear here the common ground that

this

unifies all the parties involved is

technology

and technology advancement and

improvements to our current systems

to design better higher efficiency and

better performing mechanisms to lower

the cost

associated with any of these energy

systems

this is the language that all those that

are involved can agree on

a better efficiency means more

profitability

that its core for industry is good for

economy

and is good for the people therefore

governments

will take advantage of that too a lower

cost

in our energy systems we mean a better

economy and a better happier society

because of it

if we can reduce our footprints on the

environment

that means that our lives are going to

be more comfortable

and if the technology that we need to

get there is there this has been for all

of us

why do we need to wait for bloodshed to

push us to invest in technologies

that can revolutionize our lives in the

future

this has been the trend for years and

centuries

war and the fear for examination and the

need for survival

has pushed us to invest in technology

developments

that gave us the edge in the war

but in return over time they became

relevant in bettering their lives during

the time of peace

now we have an opportunity to come

together towards designing better

systems engineering higher efficiency

technologies

and better in our lives without the

actual bloodshed of war

but with the real danger for survival

this is an ugly enemy it does not haunt

you in history you can’t find one

just like it but it slowly makes its

presence known in the shape of what

we can all call as a common name climate

change

i only pose one question to all those

from either side of the spectrum

who fight for or against policies

related to climate change

what would you lose to transform a

polarizing disagreement

to a unifying cause in climate change

let’s look at climate change from a new

lens

one that allows us to make this crisis

an opportunity

to bring us together and to unify us

towards a better future

for all of us for children and for our

grandchildren

but that enables technology developments

that help industries thrive and

economies grow

all with a reduction in environmental

footprint

let’s work together to elect the right

people for the right job

thank you

[音乐]

下午好

,这一系列 tedx 讲座的主题

是关于让我彻夜难眠的问题

,有许多不同的话题

引起了共鸣,尤其是在当前的

大流行中,

从健康到能源安全

和技术,所有这些都是一个共同点

是促进

我们的生存和我们社会的生存的类似目标

这是一个仍然

独立于政治宗教或

我们之间的任何其他愿景差异的话题

他们如何在这个现实中生存没有

可以站出来说一个 话题

比另一个更重要

,没有人能站出来说这个

话题

不如另一个重要,因为这些都关系到

我们的生存

并且都很重要这

是民主的首要原则

和平的第一步

多元文化

和有远见的人们之间的共存

问题的真相是,

我们生活的世界是一个复杂的

世界,涉及到多种

生存战争中的战线

技术很重要 让

我们活得更久

更轻松 新闻前景更好

流血是一种威胁 为

实现更

持久的和平而需要应对的旅行

另一个同样重要的问题是

我们的战争 必须

战胜自然 这是

一场重审机会非常有限

的战斗 敌人

具有内在优势和

赢得胜利的权利 需要非凡的

努力

和所有相关人员的统一大师

不仅限于我或 对你

,甚至对我们的文明来说,这

是一场团结所有

生活在这个星球上的人

以获得更长久的

生存的战斗

在全球范围

内,每个人都与它有关,这被

称为气候变化

我们对气候变化的真正含义是什么

,它们来自哪里,谁应对它负责

这些都是我们一直在

自己的问题,也是我们在选举中一直试图回答的问题,

在研究制定未来计划时,

但并非所有这些都是正确的

问题

气候变化

不是我们需要解决的单一现象 解决它不是一个需要扭转的

孤立过程,

它既不是

他们可以在示威或游行中解决的社会政治挑战,

也不是一个可以

由研究人员和

学者单独处理的科学问题,它是一个不同的

阶段 我们与自然的冲突

已经发生了数千年

它需要我们所有人并需要

我们所有的注意力

我们可以通过事实和观察来描述和定义气候变化的最佳方式

我们可以观察到的是,例如

地球的平均温度

是 每年都在增加 这里的数据

显示,自 1980 年代以来,

温度逐渐升高并一直保持在

那里,

这使它成为 实际观察

不是解释

不是政治论据 而是真实的

观察 我们可以测量这

并不意味着我们

在世界各地的温度都在升高

这意味着我们星球的平均温度

正在升高

我们还可以测量二氧化碳的水平

多年来地球大气

使用来自南极洲的冰样本这些

是我们收集的数据,这些数据

具有已知的不确定性和

基于已证明的科学方法的科学术语这是否

是气候变化的原因,

这将是一种解释

而不是观察 我只会

坚持事实和观察结果,而

将这些数据的任何个人

或科学解释

留给其他专家这样做,

因为这不符合我们讨论的目的,

因此温度上升

isis 开始融化,

正如我们观察到的那样 北极

冰层开始缩小,因为

发生这种情况

的海 水平开始上升

这是一个主要问题,每天

在太平洋岛屿或海滨国家

和城市观察到

,海平面每天都在从人们身上夺走一只

小羊羔,

你可以在海滩上放一根棍子

,你可以看到它发生

这种情况 是一种观察,你看着

海滩

,你发现那些

人的生活每天都在变化

我们也有

更频繁发生的极端天气事件

并不一定意味着到处都会发生更热的天气

它只是意味着奇怪的事件

发生了 更频繁地

因为海洋温度

因融化而发生变化 x 以及

更好的系统发生变化的后果

这些只是

我们

为解释我们所说的

气候变化所做的观察的几个例子,这就是改变一切的神奇战争

我们周围的一切都在变化,

其原因是因为气候

在变化,

这意味着我们周围的世界

温度 温度

潮湿 我们的日常生活

所有不同的方面都在发生变化

而这些变化 我们可以观察到的

就是我们可以达成的共识 我们可以

量化

这与政治

观点无关 不管

你相信谁 如你

所见,

我是 2015 年

联合国气候会议

的官方观察员。我

在这些会议上的谈判的第一手经验是

惊讶之后是难以置信,

最后是

政治家

科学家和工业界之间巨大障碍的理解 领导们

的主要问题是,

谈判不是诚实地

朝着共同点进行,

而是简单地把负担放在对方身上,

而且可行性问题

科学和技术是合理的目标

,讨论我们的

目标和斗争

因为我们无法实现它,联合国正在

大力投资研究以

证明气候变化是真实的

他们应该专注于

研究解决我们今天已经观察和经历的影响的方法

让我们说,以证明气候变化

是真实的,确定

对这一切负责的

人,对任何

与我们相同的人都毫无疑问地解决

问题

这是否将国家团结在一起,或者是否

会在

这场危机中产生任何影响?

不,它不只是分裂人们,

我们在整个历史上都看到了这场比赛,

而且他们在过去一次又一次地扮演了类似的

角色

而不是 重复同样的

错误

让我们改变我们的方法让我们专注

于问题

而不是旁观谁应该受到

指责以及如何让他们

为此付出代价将是一个政治论点,

我们需要一种科学和社会的方法

来解决与气候相关的问题

改变

我们的谈判者和决策者

需要更好地

了解

他们正在采取

和瞄准的每一个动议 因为

技术能力

和科学价值方面的手段如果他们想重新

定义气候变化问题如果我们设定

无法实现的目标

那么在这场战斗中失败的人是

我们

我们应该瞄准那些我们

可以确保实现的目标 在一段

时间

内见面

迈出一步

在其中一些情况下,科学上不可能满足,

例如客机海上货物运输

的温室

气体减排,以及如何减少与此相关的温室气体排放,

以及温室气体减排如何

影响全球贸易和

经济体以及经济

发展 2050 是否可以实现

你必须考虑这两个我们

应该启用技术转移 转移到

欠发达国家,这样他们就

不需要

支付相同的成本来实现与我们支付的

相同水平的技术进步

它会更快

,对环境和

其他方面来说,

技术禁运都会有

问题 需要

为跨境转移科技发展开设技术银行

人口控制是另一个

问题 我们需要在其他发达国家解决的一个重要问题

能源生产的可持续性

与查看该

能源数量的消耗同样重要 4

民粹主义 负担首先应该落在

行业和政府而不是

人民身上

例如,如果我们在经济困难时期试图执行资本

贸易和

资本相关政策,

这将适得其反 我们需要成为商业

公众的看法,我们必须 从

今天最重要的事情开始,人们可以处理

我们需要的事情 ed 将我们的研发重点放在

最重要的行业和技术上

这不仅关乎我们

如何发电 我们如何提取能源

它还关乎我们如何改造它

我们如何运输它以及我们如何

消耗

它 这些问题和这一切都

需要新的和革命性

的概念方法,

而不是仅仅对技术进行小调整

,而不是产生巨大的影响

让我们开始思考并

意识到我们需要的新技术是开箱即用,

我们需要一个 创新的新定义,

因为我们需要的东西超出了我们

目前对创新一词的理解

这些提出了

解决共同问题

的富有成效的方法,就像我们团结起来

解决当前的流行病一样,

我们必须团结起来

解决我们面临的问题 随着气候变化

回答谁做的问题,这

从来都不是

在任何冲突或危机中

找到统一的方法 责备的人

人类在试图应对

这场

危机时所

面临的一长串心理步骤和过程中最简单的一步

采用并解决你手头的问题或

挑战

这是人类的本性这

是我们的心理

如果你要与自然作斗争你

最好利用我们自己的优势

加快这一进程向前推进

我只能推荐一种方法

在我们所有人中找到你们的共同点

这个共同的事业对

所有参与这一想法的

人都有效 一个统一的声音

在政治社会经济

和科学界引起共鸣

一个 目的不是解决

我在演讲开始时列出的这些两极分化的问题,

而是

在解决问题的同时转移回答所有问题的需要

这场危机的性质

超越贪婪运动的界限

并延伸

到石油、天然气和能源

爱好者所承诺的繁荣之外 一堵

能满足所有相关人员的墙,

但只有一点点

哦,这是一个不朽的魔法

挑战

是,如果一方都感到高兴,

那只能意味着其他人的

所有需求

根本没有得到满足。

共同点在这里很清楚,

将所有相关方统一起来的共同点是

技术

和技术进步以及

对我们当前的改进 系统

来设计更好的更高效率和

更好的执行机制,以降低

与任何这些能源系统相关的成本

这是所有相关

人员都同意

的语言,更高的效率意味着更高的

盈利能力

,其工业核心有利于

经济

和 对人民有好处,因此

政府

也将利用这一优势

降低我们的能源成本 我们的系统意味着一个更好的

经济和一个更幸福的社会,

因为

如果我们能够减少我们对环境的足迹,

这意味着我们的生活

将会更加舒适

,如果我们需要的技术

在那里,这就是为了

我们所有人

为什么要等待流血事件

促使我们投资于

可以在未来彻底改变我们生活的技术

这是多年来和几个世纪的趋势

战争以及对检查的恐惧和

对生存

的需要促使我们 投资于

使我们在战争中处于优势的技术发展,

但随着时间的推移,它们

在和平时期改善他们的生活变得相关

现在我们有机会

共同设计更好的

系统工程更高效率的

技术

和更好的生活 没有

战争的实际流血

但有生存的真正危险

这是一个丑陋的敌人它不会

在历史上困扰你你找不到

就像它一样,但它慢慢地

我们都可以称之为气候变化的共同名称的形式出现

了 将

两极分化的分歧

转变为气候变化的统一事业,你会输吗?

让我们从一个新的视角来看待气候变化,

这使我们能够将这场危机变成

一个机会

,让我们团结起来,团结我们

为我们所有人创造更美好的未来 为了孩子和我们的

孙子孙女

,这使得技术发展

能够帮助工业繁荣和

经济

增长,同时减少环境

足迹

让我们共同努力,选出合适的

人做合适的工作,

谢谢