The science behind a climate headline Rachel Pike

I’d like to talk to you today about the

scale of the scientific effort that goes

into making the headlines you see in the

paper headlines that look like this when

they have to do with climate change and

headlines that look like this when they

have to do with air quality or smog

they’re both two branches of the same

field of atmospheric science recently

the headlines looked like this when the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change or IPCC put out their report on

the state of understanding of the

atmospheric system that report was

written by 620 scientists from 40

countries they wrote almost a thousand

pages on the topic and all of those

pages were reviewed by another 400 plus

scientists and reviewers from 113

countries it’s a big community it’s such

a big community in fact that our annual

gathering is the largest scientific

meeting in the world over 15,000

scientists go to San Francisco every

year for that and every one of those

scientists is in a research group and

every research group studies a wide

variety of topics for us at Cambridge

it’s as varied as the El Nino

oscillation which affects weather and

climate to the assimilation of satellite

data to emissions from crops that

produce biofuels which is what I happen

to study and in each one of these

research areas of which there are even

more there are PhD students like me and

we study incredibly narrow topics things

as narrow as a few processes or a few

molecules and one of the molecules I

study is called isoprene which is here

the small organic molecule probably

never heard of it the weight of a

paperclip is approximately equal to 900

Zeta iliyan 10 to the 21st molecules of

isoprene but despite its very small

weight enough of it is emitted into the

atmosphere every year to equal the

weight of all the people on the planet

it’s a huge amount of stuff it’s equal

to the weight of methane and because

it’s so much stuff it’s really important

for the atmospheric system because it’s

important for the atmospheric system we

go to all lengths to study this thing we

blow it up and look at the pieces this

is the U for smog chamber in Spain

atmospheric explosions or full

combustion takes about 15,000 times

longer than what happens in your car but

still we look at the pieces we run

enormous models on supercomputers this

is what I happen to do our models have

hundreds of thousands of grid boxes

calculating hundreds of variables each

on minut timescales and it takes weeks

to perform our integrations and we

perform dozens of integrations in order

to understand what’s happening we also

fly all over the world looking for this

thing

recently joined a field campaign in

Malaysia there are others we found a

global atmospheric watchtower there in

the middle of the rainforest

and hung hundreds of thousands of

dollars worth of scientific equipment

office tower to look for isoprene and of

course other things while we were there

this is the tower in the middle of

rainforest from above and this is the

tower from below and on part of that

field campaign we even brought an

aircraft with us and this play in the

model ba one four six which is run by

Pham normally flies 120 to 130 people so

maybe you took a similar aircraft to get

here today but we didn’t just fly it we

were flying at 100 meters above the top

of the canopy to measure this molecule

incredibly dangerous stuff we have to

fly in a special incline in order to

make the measurements we hire military

and test pilots to do the maneuvering we

have to get special flight clearance and

as you come around the banks in these

valleys the forces can get up to 2 GS

and the scientists have to be completely

harnessing in order to make measurements

while they’re on board so as you can

imagine the inside of this aircraft

doesn’t look like any plane you would

take on vacation it’s a flying

laboratory that we took to make

measurements in the region of this

molecule we do all of this to understand

the chemistry of one molecule and when

one student like me has some sort of

inclination or understanding about that

molecule they write one scientific paper

on the subject and out of that field

campaign will probably get a few dozen

papers on a few dozen processes or

molecules and as a body of knowledge

builds up it will form one subsection or

one sub subsection of an assessment like

the IPCC although we have others and

each one of the eleven chapters of the

IPCC has six to ten subsections you can

imagine the scale of the effort in each

one of those assessments that we write

we always tag on a summary and the

summary is written for a non-scientific

audience and we hand that summary to

journalists and policy makers in order

to make headlines like these thank you

very much

you

今天我想和你谈谈

科学努力的规模,

你在

报纸头条中看到的

与气候变化

有关时看起来像这样的头条新闻,当他们不得不这样做时看起来像这样的头条新闻

与空气质量或烟雾有关,

它们都是同一

大气科学领域的两个分支

最近,当

政府间气候变化专门委员会

或 IPCC 发布他们对

大气系统了解状况的报告时,头条新闻看起来像这样

由来自 40 个国家/地区的 620 位科学家撰写,

他们撰写了近 1000

页关于该主题的文章,所有这些

页面都由

来自 113

个国家/地区的另外 400 多名科学家和审稿人

审阅 世界上最大的科学

会议每年有超过 15,000 名

科学家为此前往旧金山

,其中每一位

科学家都在研究中心 oup 和

每个研究小组

在剑桥为我们研究了各种各样的主题,

它与影响天气和气候的厄尔尼诺现象一样多种多样,

从卫星数据同化到生产生物燃料的农作物的排放,

这是我

碰巧研究的,在 这些

研究领域中的每一个都有

更多像我这样的博士生,

我们研究非常

狭窄的话题,小到几个过程或几个

分子,我研究的分子之一

叫做异戊二烯,在这里

是小 有机分子可能

从未听说过它 一个

回形针的重量大约等于 900

Zeta iliyan 10 到第 21 个异戊二烯分子,

但尽管它的

重量非常小,但它每年排放到

大气中的量足以等于

所有人的重量 在这个星球上,

它是大量的东西,它

等于甲烷的重量,因为

它是如此之多,

它对大气系统非常重要 em 因为

它对大气系统很重要

我们不遗余力地研究这个东西 我们

炸毁它并查看碎片 这

是西班牙烟雾室的 U

大气爆炸或完全

燃烧所花费的时间大约

是你的 15,000 倍 汽车,但

我们仍然在看我们

在超级计算机上运行巨大模型的部分,这

就是我碰巧做的事情

为了了解正在发生的事情,我们还

飞遍世界寻找这个

东西

最近在马来西亚参加了一场实地活动

还有其他人 我们在热带雨林中间发现了一个

全球大气

瞭望塔,价值数十万

美元 科学设备

办公大楼寻找异戊二烯,

当然还有其他东西,当我们在那里时,

这是 t

从上面俯瞰热带雨林的中心,这是

从下面看的塔,在

野外活动的一部分中,我们甚至带了

一架飞机,这部

由 Pham 经营的 ba 一四六模型中的戏剧

通常会飞 120 到 130 人 所以

也许你今天乘坐类似的飞机到达

这里,但我们不只是飞它,我们

在树冠顶部上方 100 米处飞行,

以测量这种分子

非常危险的东西,我们必须

在一个特殊的斜坡上飞行才能

制造 我们聘请军事

和试飞员进行测量,我们

必须获得特殊的飞行许可,

当你绕过这些山谷的河岸时,

部队可以达到 2 GS

,科学家必须完全

利用才能进行测量

当他们在飞机上时,你

可以想象这架飞机的内部

看起来不像你会

在度假时乘坐的任何飞机,它是一个飞行

实验室,我们在这架飞机

的区域进行

测量 ecule 我们做所有这些都是为了了解

一个分子的化学性质,当

像我这样的学生

对那个分子有某种倾向或理解时,

他们会写一篇

关于该主题的科学论文,并且在该领域

活动之外可能会获得几十篇

论文 关于几十个过程或

分子,随着知识体系的

建立,它将形成

像 IPCC 这样的评估的一个小节或一个小节,

尽管我们还有其他的,而且

IPCC 的十一章中的每一章都有六到十个小节。

可以想象我们编写的每一项评估的努力规模,

我们总是在摘要上加上标签,

摘要是为非科学观众编写的

,我们将摘要交给

记者和政策制定者,

以便制作像这样的头条新闻

非常感谢