Fossil Fuels Peaked in 2019
um
i’m very glad to be a part of this tedx
call
you may not know our organization dndgl
we are a global risk management
consultancy advisory
outfit we have about 12 000 people
in 100 countries 70 of us
work in energy in one form or another
um a lot of people thousands work in oil
and gas
thousands work in power and renewables
and also a lot of people work in
shipping
where the transition to the carbonized
fuels is extremely
important we
are forecasters also
and we have a model uh
and we are uh more than 100 people to
participate in this exercise and
every year we um make a report
we call the energy transition outlook
we’ve done that
for four years this year our main
insights
is first of all that covet 19
matters it reduces energy demand by
eight percent
and puts peak emissions behind us
we also see very rapid electrification
dominated by uh solar pv where
uh capacities will increase 24 fold to
2050
also in wind wear capacities will
increase 12 fold to 2050
and this transforms the energy mix
however uh the future is not that
rosy the carbonization of hard to abate
sectors
remains too slow and we will miss
the paris agreement targets
our approach uh i need to spend half a
minute on that
we uh talk about our organization’s best
estimate so this is not the future
we would like to see this is not the
goal this is how we see the world
unfolding the technology
the policies everything
we provide a single forecast not this
suit of different
scenarios we focus on the picture
the long-term picture this is quite
important
because we for instance do not have
explicit
gas markets or oil markets where there
are important imbalances in demand and
supply
thus perhaps depressing prices
at certain times or increasing them at
others
we look at prices as determined by
production costs we do not assume
any new technologies appearing there are
no major disruptions
in technology all the technologies we
talk about are already
there but they will as i mentioned they
will grow a lot of them
have included uh estimates of how
policies
will evolve uh and in particular climate
policies um an
important part of that is my last point
here is
behavioral changes so we will see that
behavior political behavior will change
and also individual behavior will change
we make a key assumptions to 2050
we project the world population
increasing about a quarter to
9.4 billion people slightly less than
what
u.n forecasts
we forecast economic growth so that
gdp globally in constant dollars will
double to 2050.
uh we have seen over the last decades
uh rapid declines in costs
of uh solar wind and battery
technologies in particular
and we see no reason that these
fundamental cost
learning rates will change so we see
that
the cost learning rates in the teens and
in the
low twenties for every doubling of
capacity that is
will continue
when it comes to carbon prices in
particular uh which is an
important part of uh climate policies we
see
these prices increasing with uh europe
being sort of uh the most prominent
where we forecast that the
carbon prices will increase to 80 per
ton
in 2050. so this then means
that when we look into the future we see
a global primary energy supply
that will peak already in 2032
and when we look further to 2050 coal
consumption will be reduced by 65 two
thirds
till then and oil use will almost
be cut in half
this then means that emissions will also
be reduced emissions have already peaked
carbon emissions energy related carbon
emissions have already peaked
and they will basically be cut in half
to 20
- when we look
not at the primary energy supply but the
final energy demand that is
what kind of fuels
are used at the final users
we see that this demand will peak in
we also see that electricity demand in
the world
will more than double between now and
2050
at the expense of oil as we have talked
about
and coal
uh if we look at the final energy demand
by sectors
we see that uh there is uh
significant growth in buildings with
stable energy use in
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manufacturing and in
transport my theme today is
fossil fuel peak
actually peak fossil fuel use
is behind us that happened last year
this year fossil use will
decline by about eight percent
and it will never recover
so from now on fossil fuel demand
will uh be flat for the next 10 years
and then it will gradually decline
so that as we have seen it will be
almost cut in half
by 2050. the reason why it’s flat for
the next 10 years when
oil and coal is declining is that there
is significant growth
in gas as we will see here
coal peaked already in 2014.
and as i have mentioned
consumption will decline by two thirds
to twenty
fifty oil peak was last year
and uh consumption will be cut in half
by 2050 gas peak will be in 2035
and there will be some significant
decline thereafter
at 2 20 50.
why is there such a strong
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decline in fossil fuel demand
it has a lot to do with rapid
electrification
and this is an illustration we see
that the sales of electric vehicles
will increase rapidly to 2032
and further on already in 2032
half of all new passenger vehicles sold
in the world
will be electric that means battery
electric so these are not plugging
hybrids
plugging hardwoods will play a very
minor role
in the energy transition as seen on the
top
left here so this means that when we
come to 2050
uh three quarters of all passenger
vehicles and about two-thirds of all
commercial vehicles will actually be
fueled by electricity if you look into
it
at two and three-wheelers this shift
happens
even earlier so the 90 percent fleet
share will happen already before 2040.
this electricity increase we will also
see in other sectors in buildings
for instance uh where heat pumps
will afford extreme energy efficiency
efficiency
electricity matters also in road
transport because a typical electric
vehicle
uses only a quarter of the energy of
an internal combustion engine vehicle
and that has to do with the fact that uh
internal combustion engines
they uh use only a quarter of the
energy for propulsion rest is lost
in heat
so what i’ve told you about now is all
in our
energy transition outlook report you can
download for free
but not only the report you can also
download
all the underlying data for free at this
address i provide here
you