Niro Sivanathan The counterintuitive way to be more persuasive TED

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier
Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

Imagine you’re on a shopping trip.

You’ve been looking
for a luxury-line dinnerware set

to add to your kitchen collection.

As it turns out,

your local department store
has announced a sale

on the very set you’ve been looking for,

so you rush to the store
to find a 24-piece set on sale.

Eight dinner plates,
all in good condition;

eight soup and salad bowls,
all in good condition;

and eight dessert plates,
all in good condition.

Now, consider for a moment

how much you would be willing to pay
for this dinnerware set.

Now imagine an alternate scenario.

Not having seen this 24-piece luxury set,

you rush to the store to find
a 40-piece dinnerware set on sale.

Eight dinner plates,
all in good condition;

eight soup and salad bowls,
all in good condition;

eight dessert plates,
all in good condition;

eight cups, two of them are broken;

eight saucers, seven of them are broken.

Now consider for a moment

how much you would be willing to pay
for this 40-piece dinnerware set.

This is the premise of a clever
experiment by Christopher Hsee

from the University of Chicago.

It’s also the question that I’ve asked
hundreds of students in my classroom.

What were their responses?

On average, when afforded
the 24-piece luxury set,

they were willing to spend
390 pounds for the set.

When afforded the 40-piece dinnerware set,

on average, they were willing
to spend a whopping 192 pounds

for this dinnerware set.

Strictly speaking, these are
an irrational set of numbers.

You’ll notice the 40-piece dinnerware set

includes all elements
you would get in the 24-piece set,

plus six cups and one saucer.

And not only are you not willing to spend
what you will for the 24-piece set,

you’re only willing to spend roughly half
of what you will for that 24-piece set.

What you’re witnessing here

is what’s referred
to as the dilution effect.

The broken items, if you will,

dilute our overall perceived value
of that entire set.

Turns out this cognitive quirk
at the checkout counter

has important implications

for our ability to be heard
and listened to when we speak up.

Whether you are speaking up
against a failing strategy,

speaking against the grain
of a shared opinion among friends

or speaking truth to power,

this takes courage.

Often, the points that are raised

are both legitimate
but also shared by others.

But sadly, and far too often,

we see people speak up
but fail to influence others

in the way that they had hoped for.

Put another way,

their message was sound,

but their delivery proved faulty.

If we could understand
this cognitive bias,

it holds important implications

for how we could craft
and mold our messages

to have the impact we all desire …

to be more influential as a communicator.

Let’s exit the aisles
of the shopping center

and enter a context in which we practice
almost automatically every day:

the judgment of others.

Let me introduce you to two individuals.

Tim studies 31 hours a week
outside of class.

Tom, like Tim, also spends 31 hours
outside of class studying.

He has a brother and two sisters,

he visits his grandparents,

he once went on a blind date,

plays pool every two months.

When participants are asked to evaluate

the cognitive aptitude
of these individuals,

or more importantly,
their scholastic achievement,

on average, people rate Tim

to have a significantly higher
GPA than that of Tom.

But why?

After all, both of them spend
31 hours a week outside of class.

Turns out in these contexts,

when we’re presented such information,

our minds utilize
two categories of information:

diagnostic and nondiagnostic.

Diagnostic information
is information of relevance

to the valuation that is being made.

Nondiagnostic is information
that is irrelevant or inconsequential

to that valuation.

And when both categories
of information are mixed,

dilution occurs.

The very fact that Tom
has a brother and two sisters

or plays pool every two months

dilutes the diagnostic information,

or more importantly,

dilutes the value and weight
of that diagnostic information,

namely that he studies
31 hours a week outside of class.

The most robust psychological explanation
for this is one of averaging.

In this model, we take in information,

and those information
are afforded a weighted score.

And our minds do not add
those pieces of information,

but rather average
those pieces of information.

So when you introduce irrelevant
or even weak arguments,

those weak arguments, if you will,

reduce the weight
of your overall argument.

A few years ago,

I landed in Philadelphia
one August evening

for a conference.

Having just gotten off
a transatlantic flight,

I checked into my hotel room,
put my feet up

and decided to distract
my jet lag with some TV.

An ad caught my attention.

The ad was an ad
for a pharmaceutical drug.

Now if you’re the select few who’ve not
had the pleasure of witnessing these ads,

the typical architecture of these ads

is you might see a happy couple
prancing through their garden,

reveling in the joy that they got
a full night’s sleep

with the aid of the sleep drug.

Because of FDA regulations,

the last few seconds of this one-minute ad
needs to be devoted to the side effects

of that drug.

And what you’ll typically hear
is a hurried voice-over that blurts out

“Side effects include
heart attack, stroke,

blah, blah, blah,”

and will end with something
like “itchy feet.”

(Laughter)

Guess what “itchy feet” does
to people’s risk assessment

of “heart attack” and “stroke”?

It dilutes it.

Imagine for a moment
an alternate commercial

that says “This drug
cures your sleep problems,

side effects are heart attack and stroke.”

Stop.

Now all of a sudden you’re thinking,
“I don’t mind staying up all night.”

(Laughter)

Turns out going to sleep is important,

but so is waking up.

(Laughter)

Let me give you
a sample from our research.

So this ad that I witnessed
essentially triggered a research project

with my PhD student, Hemant,
over the next two years.

And in one of these studies,

we presented participants
an actual print ad

that appeared in a magazine.

[Soothing rest for mind and body.]

You’ll notice the last line
is devoted to the side effects

of this drug.

For half of the participants,

we showed the ad in its entirety,

which included both major side effects
as well as minor side effects.

To the other half of the participants,

we showed the same ad
with one small modification:

we extracted just four words
out of the sea of text.

Specifically, we extracted
the minor side effects.

And then both sets of participants
rated that drug.

What we find is that individuals
who were exposed

to both the major side effects
as well as the minor side effects

rated the drug’s overall severity
to be significantly lower

than those who were only exposed
to the major side effects.

Furthermore, they also showed
greater attraction

towards consuming this drug.

In a follow-up study,

we even find that individuals
are willing to pay more

to buy the drug which they were exposed to

that had both major side effects
as well as minor side effects,

compared to just major side effects alone.

So it turns out pharmaceutical ads,

by listing both major side effects
as well as minor side effects,

paradoxically dilute participants'
and potential consumers'

overall risk assessment of that drug.

Going beyond shopping expeditions,

going beyond the evaluation
of the scholastic aptitude of others,

and beyond evaluating risk
in our environment,

what this body of research tells us

is that in the world of communicating
for the purposes of influence,

quality trumps quantity.

By increasing the number of arguments,

you do not strengthen your case,

but rather you actively weaken it.

Put another way,

you cannot increase
the quality of an argument

by simply increasing
the quantity of your argument.

The next time you want
to speak up in a meeting,

speak in favor of a government legislation
that you’re deeply passionate about,

or simply want to help a friend
see the world through a different lens,

it is important to note

that the delivery of your message
is every bit as important as its content.

Stick to your strong arguments,

because your arguments don’t add up
in the minds of the receiver,

they average out.

Thank you.

(Applause)

抄写员:Leslie Gauthier
审稿人:Krystian

Aparta 想象一下您正在购物。

您一直在寻找

可以添加到您的厨房系列中的豪华系列餐具。

事实证明,

您当地的百货公司
已经宣布出售

您一直在寻找的套装,

所以您急忙去
商店寻找出售的 24 件套装。

八个餐盘
,状况良好;

八个汤碗和沙拉碗
,状况良好;

和八个甜点盘,
一切都很好。

现在,考虑一下

您愿意为这套餐具支付多少钱

现在想象一个替代方案。

没有看到这套 24 件套的豪华套装,

你急忙跑到商店里找到
了一套 40 件套的餐具出售。

八个餐盘
,状况良好;

八个汤碗和沙拉碗
,状况良好;

八个甜点盘
,状况良好;

八杯,破了两杯;

八个碟子,其中七个坏了。

现在考虑一下

您愿意
为这套 40 件套餐具支付多少钱。

这是

芝加哥大学的 Christopher Hsee 巧妙实验的前提。

这也是
我在课堂上问过数百名学生的问题。

他们的反应是什么?

平均而言,当
提供 24 件套的豪华套装时,

他们愿意
为这套套装花费 390 英镑。

当提供 40 件套餐具

时,他们平均愿意
为这套餐具花费高达 192 英镑

严格来说,这些是
一组不合理的数字。

您会注意到 40 件套餐具

包括
24 件套中的所有元素,

外加 6 个杯子和一个碟子。

而且,您不仅不愿意
为 24 件套

花费您愿意的费用,而且您只愿意
为 24 件套花费大约一半的费用。

你在这里看到的


所谓的稀释效应。

如果你愿意的话,破碎的物品会

稀释我们
对整个系列的整体感知价值。

事实证明
,收银台的这种认知怪癖

对我们说话时被倾听和倾听的能力具有重要意义。

无论你是
反对失败的策略,

反对
朋友之间的共同观点,

还是对权力说真话,

这都需要勇气。

通常,提出的观点

都是合法的,
但也被其他人分享。

但可悲的是,

我们经常看到人们大声疾呼,
但未能以

他们希望的方式影响他人。

换句话说,

他们的信息是合理的,

但他们的传递被证明是错误的。

如果我们能够理解
这种认知偏见,

对于我们如何制作
和塑造我们的信息

以产生我们都希望的影响

……成为更具影响力的沟通者具有重要意义。

让我们走出购物中心的过道

,进入一个我们
几乎每天都在自动练习的环境:

他人的判断。

让我向您介绍两个人。

蒂姆每周在课外学习 31 小时

汤姆和蒂姆一样,也在课外花 31 个小时
学习。

他有一个兄弟和两个姐妹,

他拜访了他的祖父母,

他曾经相亲,

每两个月打一次台球。

当参与者被要求评估

这些人的认知能力,

或更重要的是,
他们的学业成绩时

,平均而言,人们认为

蒂姆的 GPA 明显
高于汤姆。

但为什么?

毕竟,他们俩每周都要花
31 个小时在课外。

在这些情况下,

当我们看到这样的信息时,

我们的大脑会利用
两类信息:

诊断和非诊断。

诊断信息

是与正在进行的评估相关的信息。

非诊断性信息
是与该估值无关或无关紧要的信息

当这
两类信息混合在一起时,

就会发生稀释。

汤姆
有一个兄弟和两个姐妹

或每两个月打台球这一事实

稀释了诊断信息,

或者更重要的是,

稀释了诊断信息的价值和权重

即他
每周在课外学习 31 小时。

对此最有力的心理
解释是平均之一。

在这个模型中,我们获取信息

,这些信息
被赋予一个加权分数。

我们的大脑不会添加
这些信息,

而是平均
这些信息。

因此,当你引入不相关
甚至

是弱论点时,如果你愿意,那些弱论点会

降低
你整体论点的权重。

几年前,

我在
八月的一个晚上抵达费城

参加一个会议。


下完跨大西洋航班后

,我入住酒店房间,
站起身

,决定
用电视来分散我的时差反应。

一则广告引起了我的注意。


广告是药品广告。

现在,如果您是少数
没有幸看到这些广告的人,

那么这些广告的典型架构

是您可能会看到一对幸福的夫妇
在他们的花园中腾跃,

陶醉于与他们一起
睡了一夜的喜悦

安眠药的帮助。

由于 FDA 的规定,

这个一分钟广告的最后几秒钟
需要专门用于说明

该药物的副作用。

你通常会
听到一个匆忙的画外音,脱口而出

“副作用包括
心脏病发作,中风,

等等,等等,等等”,

并以
“脚痒”之类的东西结束。

(笑声)

猜猜“脚痒”
对人们

对“心脏病”和“中风”的风险评估有何影响?

它稀释了它。

想象
一下另一个广告

,上面写着“这种药物
可以治愈你的睡眠问题,

副作用是心脏病发作和中风。”

停止。

现在突然间你在想,
“我不介意熬夜。”

(笑声)

睡觉很重要,但起床也很重要

(笑声)

让我给你
一个我们研究的样本。

因此,我目睹的这个广告在接下来的两年里
基本上引发

了我的博士生 Hemant 的一个研究项目

在其中一项研究中,

我们向参与者
展示

了出现在杂志上的实际平面广告。

[让身心得到舒缓的休息。]

你会注意到最后
一行专门介绍

了这种药物的副作用。

对于一半的参与者,

我们完整地展示了广告,

其中包括主要
副作用和次要副作用。

对于另一半的参与者,

我们展示了同样的广告
,只是做了一个小改动:

我们从文本的海洋中只提取了四个词

具体来说,我们提取
了轻微的副作用。

然后两组参与者都
对这种药物进行了评分。

我们发现
,暴露

于主要
副作用和次要副作用的个体

对药物的总体严重程度的评价
明显

低于仅暴露
于主要副作用的个体。

此外,他们还对服用这种药物表现出
更大的吸引力

在一项后续研究中,

我们甚至发现
个人愿意花更多

的钱来购买他们接触过的药物,这种药物

既有主要的副作用
,也有轻微的副作用,

而不仅仅是主要的副作用。

所以事实证明,药品广告

通过列出主要
副作用和次要副作用,

自相矛盾地淡化了参与者
和潜在消费者

对该药物的总体风险评估。

超越购物探险,

超越
对他人学术能力的

评估,超越评估
我们环境中的风险

,这项研究告诉我们的

是,在以
影响为目的的交流世界中,

质量胜过数量。

通过增加论点的数量,

你并没有加强你的理由,

而是积极地削弱它。

换句话说,

你不能通过

简单地增加论点
的数量来提高论点的质量。

下次您想
在会议上

发言、支持
您非常热衷的政府立法,

或者只是想帮助朋友
从不同的角度看世界时

,重要的是要

注意交付 您的信息
的重要性与其内容一样重要。

坚持你强有力的论点,

因为你的论点不会
在接收者的头脑中加起来,

它们是平均的。

谢谢你。

(掌声)