The Power and Pitfalls of the Mind

Transcriber: Nguyen Phuong Nga
Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

So the theme that we’ve been asked
to speak about for these TED talks

is the bigger question.

Now for me when I think of
the bigger question in life,

what normally comes to mind is

how do we know when we’ve got
the right conclusion, perspective or idea?

Now, when you really think about it,
there’s so many brilliant people,

brilliant minds,

who are on often completely
different ends of the spectrum

when it comes to their conclusions
on certain topics.

So then how can we be sure
that we’re on the right side

and that we’re seeing things
in the accurate way?

And then when you take that idea further

and you think about
where our thoughts come from

and how so many of our thoughts
and actions are autonomous or automatic,

how can we then say that our life
is a product of free will

or is it simply determinism?

And so these are some of the ideas
I’d love to explore in the coming minutes.

Now, for me, growing up,
it was a bit of a unique circumstance.

I was raised exclusively by women.

My parents were separated,

and so it was my three sisters
and nine female cousins,

all of which were very strong women.

Now, as any youngest child knows,

your older siblings
are always so influential over you.

And for me it was no different.

I was surrounded by sisters
who were very strong minded

and each of them
had their own perspectives.

Add to the fact I had a mother
from a different culture

in that she moved from Pakistan to the UK.

And then obviously the culture
that I grew up in was in the UK.

So I had a lot of ideas and I guess
contrasting viewpoints of the world,

which I was trying to make sense of
and reconcile from a young age.

What my sisters also introduced me to
was a whole host of brilliant books

and within there psychology
was always one of my favorite topics

to read and research.

Now, one of my favorite books
is called Thinking Fast and Slow.

It’s by an author called Daniel Kahneman.

And in this book
he talks about the idea of

two systems of thinking
that work within our mind.

Now, System 1 is more of the autonomous
or the automatic thinking

that’s taking place all the time.

It really has its place
in our prehistoric early evolution mind,

and it’s really there
because it allows us to be instinctual.

So if you can imagine being in a scenario
where you’re on the horizon

and you see a predator of some type,

the ability to immediately recognize
a threat and to know to act and run away

or take some kind of action,
that would be your system one thinking.

It’s the autonomous part,
the automatic part,

and it requires very little energy.

It’s working all the time.

It’s helping you to give you
the instincts and feelings.

Now, when these instincts and feelings
are given over to System 2,

and System 2 confirms that,

that’s when that become a belief.

So your System 2
is more of your conscious brain.

It’s where you’re taking ideas
with more complex information,

you’re reviewing that,

and you’re consciously thinking
through more complex scenarios.

So System 2 is a lot slower,
and it’s more taxing,

but it’s more accurate in perhaps
what it might give across as feedback.

Now, most of the time System 1
and System 2 work together.

And they work very well.

However, System 1,
because it works fast,

it is prone to what you call
cognitive bias.

And this is the part of the mind
that we could look at as the pitfalls.

Now, when we think about cognitive bias,

essentially cognitive bias
is our mind, in a sense,

having a blind spot in its thinking,

almost lying to ourselves -

it’s an illusion that’s created within
our thinking that we’re not aware of.

And that’s really where the danger is.

It’s because we’re not aware
of these cognitive biases

that it limits our perspectives,
reasonings and conclusions.

Now, there’s a whole host
of cognitive biases that I could go into.

But let’s focus on perhaps
what’s one of the most common ones

which is confirmation bias.

Now, we see confirmation bias
happening all the time.

Essentially when confirmation
bias is taking place,

the scenario is that you have a belief,
and as you go to look at the evidence

or you hear the evidence
or the information,

your mind will automatically ignore
the things which are contradictory

to the belief that you already hold,

but it will only pick up on
what will confirm the belief.

So even if the belief you have is untrue,
and you’re presented with the information,

your mind might simply
ignore that information

and only pick up on what is going
to confirm that idea.

Now, I’m sure we can all remember
having a conversation with someone

where no matter how much
information we put across,

it just didn’t seem to resonate.

And that’s confirmation bias at play.

Now, where confirmation bias, I think,
becomes even more exaggerated

is in this digital age
that we live in right now,

where different social media sites
and places like YouTube

work on algorithms that will feed you
more of what you’re looking for.

So essentially, you’ve got a confirmation
bias is working in your mind,

and then you’ve got these algorithms
that are feeding you more of the same

of what you’re already looking at.

And to me, the two things combined
will just create an echo chamber

where you’re really just being exposed
to one side of a situation repeatedly.

And you can imagine the dangers with that.

Now, if we look further into this idea
of confirmation bias

and how it relates to
how we relate to one another,

there’s an interesting experiment
that was done in 1920

by Edward Thorndike,
an American psychologist.

He looked at how officers
were taking in soldiers

as far as their perception of them,

and he discovered
what he called “the halo effect.”

So essentially the halo effect,
what it means is that

the officer’s first impression
of the soldier would hold

no matter how the soldiers were to behave
after that first impression.

So if the first impression was good,

even if the soldiers were generally
not behaving in the best way afterwards,

the officer would still
have a good impression of them,

and vice versa, if the first impression
was bad and so on.

So firstly, that really proves the idea

that you don’t get a second chance
to make a first impression.

But more so it just alerts us to this idea
of the fallibility of our mind

and how we’re able to form
these confirmation biases

even if they aren’t based in reality.

That becomes even worse
when you think about it from stereotyping.

So if we’re meeting people,

often what’s happening
when people are forming stereotypes,

if that person in front of you
is showing you nine traits out of 10

that go against the stereotype,

but they show you one trait
that is in line with that,

many of our minds might
still only pick up on the one thing

and reinforce that stereotype.

So you can see how
this could be dangerous

in how we relate to one another.

But where I think
it becomes really harrowing

as far as cognitive bias
and if we look at historical examples

is when you look at a 1940s Germany.

To me, this is the worst example of how
cognitive biases can lead us astray.

So what made ordinary Germans
commit such horrific war crimes

as what we saw in the Second World War?

Now, from the research, it would appear
that two main factors stand out.

One is that they surrendered their own
thinking to that of a leadership figure.

Again, this is another
cognitive human bias.

And the second one is conformity bias,

which is the desire
to want to fit into the group.

A lot of research points to these elements
as an explanation for that behavior.

One of the studies in particular

was looking at 210 members
of the Reserve Police Battalion 101.

And what it found
was that 90 percent of them

had committed murder
by the end of the war.

Now, these were the same people
who prior to the war

had said that the same acts
would have been disgusting to them.

They never would have imagined
doing such a thing.

So psychopathology was ruled out.

And also simply blaming the fear
of not acting was also ruled out

because in many cases they weren’t ordered
to commit a lot of these murders.

So it really points to this idea
of a desire to want to fit into the group

and not wanting to be ostracized
or isolated as a driver

for such horrific behavior.

So really what this says to me

is that it’s not enough
to simply intend to be a good person

or to have good intentions.

But I think to be a good person,

you have to have an understanding
of your own mind,

self-awareness and critical thinking

so that you’re able to separate yourself

from your conditioning,
your fears and your cognitive biases.

So other than having an understanding
of what these biases are

and then reflecting on them to be able
to minimize their impact on your life,

another way to overcome them
is to utilize mental models.

Now, mental models is an idea
that came to the forefront

by largely Charlie Munger, who’s
the investment partner of Warren Buffett.

He spoke about this quite a lot
in a number of speeches,

but the idea of what mental models are

is essentially used
by a lot of us in everyday life

without necessarily
calling it mental models.

Essentially a mental model is a rule
or a framework for your thinking.

And it’s powerful for many reasons.

It helps you to have complex thought
in a much faster way,

but it also helps you to overcome
certain cognitive biases.

For example, Jeff Bezos
speaks about this idea

of using a regret minimization
framework when trying to decide

if he should leave his job
and start Amazon.

And essentially what he did was

imagined himself as an
80- or 90-year-old version of himself,

looking back at that moment
of his life and trying to decide

if he would regret having made
that decision or not,

and that essentially freed him up
to make the decision.

And of course, we know where that led.

I’ve definitely applied
a similar approach,

and I think what I also do
a lot is reframe a situation.

When I was starting my business,

I was well aware
that because of situations

like COVID last year
and the 2008 financial crisis,

there’s a lot of aspects of life
that are outside of our control.

So you could put together the perfect
business plan, do everything right,

and you could still fail
out of no control of your own.

Now, knowing that, I reframed
my leap of faith to start my business

by simply saying,
well, if I take that leap,

knowing how difficult it can be,

and if I genuinely believe
that I’ve applied myself

in the best way I possibly could,

that for me is success in and of itself.

And that reframing of a situation
essentially freed me up

to not have that anxiety and to go forward

and do it with peace of mind.

So mental models can work
in many different circumstances

and can help us to overcome
these shortfalls in our thinking.

First Principles is another great
mentor model is used by Elon Musk

and essentially is an approach of taking
a system, keeping the key principles,

but breaking the rest of the system
down into components

and challenging every assumption
within that system

whilst maintaining the key principles.

Now, when you rebuild that

by looking at how every one
of those things could be better,

you essentially end up with hopefully
a more efficient or a better system.

And again, Elon Musk,
as successful as he is,

has quoted this idea, this mental model,
several times in his approach.

I definitely try to use the same thing
in what I do as well.

But I think we’re mental models
becomes the most powerful

is when you do what’s called
a latticework of mental models.

It’s when you’re taking
several mental models

and you’re applying them
together to get objectivity,

to get like a whole
or holistic view of a situation.

Now, as an example, let’s take a forest.

If I was to speak to an ecologist
or a botanist and say,

“Give me your perspective on the forest,”

they’d probably notice the quality
of the leaves, the soil, the plants.

If I speak to an environmentalist,

they’d probably notice the impact
of the forest on the environment.

If I speak to a business person,

they might notice its value
and it’s appreciating asset.

Now, none of these people would be wrong,

but each one of them would be seeing it
through their subjective lens,

as we all do.

But by applying all of these models
to the viewpoint of the forest,

that’s when you get a whole idea
of how to manage the forest

and how to get a truly objective sense
of that particular environment.

And I think this is where
mental models can really help you

to not have this one-sided -

as we said earlier,

that echo chamber effect
that the digital world is creating.

And it really becomes powerful
in giving you a truthful, objective,

well-rounded sense of any situation.

And so ultimately,
what we’re trying to say

or what I’m trying to say in in this
conversation with you is

the mind is a really powerful thing.

I think it has incredible potential.

It also has its pitfalls.

I think knowledge of that
can be a very positive thing.

The most positive aspect of that
for me personally

is knowing that we all have
these tendencies to make mistakes

in how we interpret the world
without knowing

means that when I encounter somebody

who has a vastly different
opinion to myself

or even in somebody who might have
potentially done wrong by me in a scenario

I find it very difficult
to hate that person

because I don’t view that as an entirely
conscious intentional behavior

or thought process.

And I think there’s something there
that we can all potentially apply

to how we relate to one another.

I think if you take a look
in social media these days,

there’s so much venom and animosity

about anybody who has
a disagreeing viewpoint to you.

But I think when we look at it
as the power and the pitfall of the mind,

we can only have a greater compassion.

And also we can leverage the same ideas
to separate our true selves

from our conditioning,
our fears and our biases.

And I think once we’re able to do that,

that’s when we can truly say

that we’re living a life of free will
and not determinism.

Thank you very much for listening.

I will provide all of the resources
of what I’ve been reading

that led up to this
conversation or this speech,

and hopefully look forward
to hearing from you.

And I hope you enjoyed listening to this.

Thank you very much.

抄写员:Nguyen Phuong Nga
审稿人:Rhonda Jacobs

所以我们被要求
为这些 TED 演讲谈论的主题

是一个更大的问题。

现在对我来说,当我想到
生活中更大的问题时

,通常会想到的是

,我们如何知道我们什么时候得出
了正确的结论、观点或想法?

现在,当你真正考虑它时,
有很多聪明的人,

聪明的头脑,

当涉及到他们
对某些主题的结论时,他们往往处于完全不同的极端。

那么,我们如何才能
确定我们站在正确的一边

,并且我们
以准确的方式看待事物呢?

然后,当你进一步思考这个想法时

,你会思考
我们的思想来自哪里,

以及我们有多少思想
和行为是自主的或自动的,

我们怎么能说我们的生活
是自由意志的产物,

或者仅仅是决定论 ?

所以这些是
我想在接下来的几分钟内探索的一些想法。

现在,对我来说,长大了,
这是一个独特的情况。

我完全由女性抚养长大。

我的父母分居了

,所以是我的三个姐姐
和九个表妹,

都是非常坚强的女人。

现在,正如任何最小的孩子都知道的那样,

你的哥哥姐姐
总是对你有如此大的影响力。

对我来说,没有什么不同。

我周围
都是非常坚强的姐妹

,她们每个人
都有自己的观点。

再加上我有一位
来自不同文化

的母亲,她从巴基斯坦搬到了英国。

然后很明显
,我长大的文化是在英国。

所以我有很多想法,我猜
对世界的不同观点

,我从小就试图理解
和调和这些观点。

我的姐妹们还向我
介绍了一大堆精彩的书籍

,其中
心理学一直是我最

喜欢阅读和研究的主题之一。

现在,我最喜欢的一本书
叫做《思考快与慢》。

这是一位名叫丹尼尔·卡尼曼的作家。

在这本书中,
他谈到了在我们脑海中运作的

两种思维系统的想法

现在,系统 1 更像是一直在发生的自主
或自动思考

它确实
在我们史前早期进化的头脑中占有一席之地,

而且它确实存在,
因为它让我们本能。

因此,如果您可以想象在一个场景
中,您在地平线上

并且您看到某种类型的捕食者

,能够立即
识别威胁并知道采取行动并逃跑

或采取某种行动,
那将是 你的系统一思考。

它是自主的部分
,自动的部分

,它只需要很少的能量。

它一直在工作。

它帮助你赋予
你直觉和感觉。

现在,当这些本能和感觉
被交给系统 2 时,

并且系统 2 确认了这一点,

那就是当它成为一种信念的时候。

所以你的系统
2 更像是你的有意识的大脑。

在这里,您正在
使用更复杂的信息来获取想法,

您正在审查它,

并且您正在有意识地
思考更复杂的场景。

因此,系统 2 慢得多
,也更费力,

但它可能更准确地
反映它可能提供的反馈。

现在,大多数时候系统 1
和系统 2 一起工作。

他们工作得很好。

然而,系统 1,
因为它工作得很快,

它很容易出现你所说的
认知偏差。


就是我们可以将其视为陷阱的大脑部分。

现在,当我们考虑认知偏差时,

本质上认知偏差
是我们的思想,在某种意义上,

它的思维有一个盲点,

几乎是在对自己撒谎——

这是在
我们的思维中产生的一种我们不知道的幻觉。

这就是真正的危险所在。

正是因为我们没有
意识到这些认知偏见

,才限制了我们的观点、
推理和结论。

现在
,我可以进入一大堆认知偏见。

但是,让我们关注
一下最常见

的确认偏差之一。

现在,我们看到确认偏差
一直在发生。

本质上,当确认
偏差发生时

,场景是你有一个信念
,当你去查看证据

或听到证据
或信息时,

你的大脑会自动忽略

你的信念相矛盾的事情 已经成立,

但它只会
拾取能够证实这一信念的东西。

因此,即使您的信念是不真实的,
并且向您展示了信息,

您的大脑也可能会简单地
忽略该信息,

而只会选择将
要确认该想法的内容。

现在,我敢肯定,我们都记得
与某人进行的对话,

无论
我们传递多少信息,

它似乎都没有引起共鸣。

这就是确认偏见在起作用。

现在,我认为,在我们现在生活的这个数字时代,确认偏见
变得更加夸张

,不同的社交媒体网站
和 YouTube 等地方都

在研究算法,这些算法将为你提供
更多你正在寻找的东西。

所以本质上,你有一个确认
偏差正在你的脑海中运作,

然后你就有了这些算法
,这些算法正在为你提供

更多你已经在看的东西。

对我来说,这两件事结合起来
只会创造一个回音室

,在那里你真的只是反复暴露
在一种情况下。

你可以想象这样做的危险。

现在,如果我们进一步研究
这种确认偏差的概念

,以及它
与我们之间的关系有何关系

,美国心理学家爱德华·桑代克在 1920 年做了一个有趣的实验

他观察了军官
们对士兵

的看法是如何接纳士兵的

,他发现
了他所谓的“光环效应”。

所以本质上是光环效应,
这意味着

无论士兵
在第一印象之后如何表现,军官对士兵的第一印象都会保持不变。

所以,如果第一印象好,

即使士兵
们事后表现一般

,但军官
对他们的印象还是不错的

,反之,如果第一
印象不好,以此类推。

因此,首先,这确实证明了

您没有第二次
机会给人留下第一印象的想法。

但更重要的是,它只是提醒我们注意我们的
想法是错误的

,以及我们如何能够形成
这些确认偏差,

即使它们不是基于现实的。

当您从刻板印象中考虑时,情况会变得更糟。

因此,如果我们与人会面,

通常
当人们形成刻板印象时会发生什么,

如果您面前的那个人向
您展示了十分之九

的与刻板印象背道而驰的特征,

但他们向您展示了与刻板
印象相符的特征 ,

我们的许多人可能
仍然只关注一件事

并强化这种刻板印象。

所以你可以看到
这对

我们如何相互联系是多么危险。

但我认为

就认知偏见而言
,如果我们看历史例子,那

就是当你看 1940 年代的德国时,它变得非常令人痛心。

对我来说,这是
认知偏见如何导致我们误入歧途的最糟糕的例子。

那么,是什么让普通德国人
犯下

了我们在二战中看到的如此可怕的战争罪行呢?

现在,从研究来看,似乎
有两个主要因素很突出。

一是他们将自己的
思想屈服于领导人物的思想。

同样,这是另一种
认知人类偏见。

第二个是从众偏见,


想要融入群体的愿望。

许多研究将这些元素
作为对这种行为的解释。

其中一项研究

特别关注了
101 预备役警察营的 210 名成员。

结果
发现,其中 90% 的人

在战争结束时犯下了谋杀罪。

现在,这些
人在战前

曾说过同样的行为
会让他们感到恶心。

他们从来没有想过会
做出这样的事情。

所以排除了精神病理学。

并且还简单地指责
害怕不采取行动也被排除在外,

因为在许多情况下,他们并没有被
命令犯下很多这样的谋杀案。

因此,它确实指向了这种想法
,即希望融入群体

,不想被排斥
或孤立,

成为这种可怕行为的驱动力。

所以这对我来说真的是

仅仅打算成为一个好人

或有良好的意图是不够的。

但我认为要成为一个好人,

你必须
了解自己的思想、

自我意识和批判性思维,

这样你才能将自己

与条件
反射、恐惧和认知偏见区分开来。

因此,除了
了解这些偏见是什么

,然后反思它们
以尽量减少它们对您生活的影响之外,

克服它们的另一种方法
是利用心智模型。

现在,心智模型是沃伦·巴菲特

的投资合伙人查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)提出的一个想法


在许多演讲中都谈到了这一点,

但是

我们很多人在日常生活中基本上都在使用心智模型的概念,

而不必将其
称为心智模型。

本质上,心智模型是
您思考的规则或框架。

它的强大有很多原因。

它可以帮助您以更快的方式进行复杂的思考

但它也可以帮助您克服
某些认知偏见。

例如,杰夫贝索斯
谈到了

在试图决定

是否应该离开工作
并创办亚马逊时使用后悔最小化框架的想法。

基本上他所做的就是

把自己想象成一个
80 岁或 90 岁的自己,

回顾他生命中的那
一刻,并试图决定

他是否会后悔做出
这个决定

,这基本上让他自由了
做出决定。

当然,我们知道这导致了哪里。

我肯定采用
了类似的方法,

而且我认为我也
经常做的是重新构建一种情况。

当我开始创业时,

我很清楚
,由于

去年的 COVID
和 2008 年的金融危机

等情况,生活中有很多方面
是我们无法控制的。

因此,您可以制定完美的
商业计划,做好每件事,但

您仍然
可能无法控制自己的失败。

现在,知道了这一点,我重新定义了
我的信念飞跃开始我的事业

,简单地说
,如果我迈出那一步,

知道它有多困难

,如果我真的
相信我已经

以最好的方式应用了我自己 可能

,对我来说,这本身就是成功。

对情况的重新定义
基本上让我摆脱

了那种焦虑,让

我安心地向前迈进。

因此,心智模型可以
在许多不同的情况下发挥作用,

并且可以帮助我们克服
思维中的这些缺陷。

第一原则
是埃隆马斯克使用的另一个伟大的导师模型

,本质上是一种采用系统的方法
,保留关键原则,

但将系统的其余部分
分解为组件,

在保持关键原则的同时挑战该系统中的每一个假设。

现在,当你

通过观察
这些事情如何变得更好来重建它时,

你基本上最终会得到
一个更高效或更好的系统。

再一次,
像他一样成功的埃隆马斯克在他的方法

中多次引用了这个想法,这个心智模型

我肯定会尝试
在我所做的事情中使用相同的东西。

但我认为我们的心智模型
变得最强大

是当你做所谓
的心智模型网格时。

当您采用
多个心智模型

并将它们
一起应用以获得客观性时,

以获得
对情况的整体或整体视图。

现在,作为一个例子,让我们以一片森林为例。

如果我要对生态学家
或植物学家说,

“给我你对森林的看法”,

他们可能会注意到
树叶、土壤和植物的质量。

如果我与环保主义者交谈,

他们可能会注意到
森林对环境的影响。

如果我与商务人士交谈,

他们可能会注意到它的
价值并且它正在升值。

现在,这些人都不会错,

但他们每个人都会

像我们一样通过主观镜头看到它。

但是,通过将所有这些模型应用
到森林的视角

,您就可以全面
了解如何管理森林

以及如何真正客观地
了解该特定环境。

我认为这就是
心智模型可以真正帮助你

摆脱这种片面性的地方——

正如我们之前所说

,数字世界正在创造的回声室效应。

它真的很强大
,可以让你对任何情况都有一个真实、客观、

全面的感觉。

因此,最终,

在与您的对话中,我们要说的或我要说的

是,思想是一种非常强大的东西。

我认为它具有不可思议的潜力。

它也有它的陷阱。

我认为了解这一点
可能是一件非常积极的事情。

对我个人而言,最积极的方面

是知道我们都有
这些

在解释世界时犯错误的倾向,
但并不知道这

意味着当我遇到一个

对我有很大不同
看法的人,

或者甚至是一个可能有潜在想法的人时
在某个场景中我做错了

我发现
很难恨那个人,

因为我不认为这是一个完全
有意识的故意行为

或思维过程。

而且我认为那里有一些
东西我们都可以潜在地

应用于我们如何相互联系。

我认为,如果你现在
看看社交媒体,

就会

发现任何
对你有不同看法的人都会充满恶意和敌意。

但我认为,当我们将其
视为思想的力量和陷阱时,

我们只能拥有更大的同情心。

我们也可以利用相同的
想法将我们的真实自我

与我们的条件反射
、恐惧和偏见区分开来。

我认为,一旦我们能够做到这

一点,我们就可以真正

说我们过着自由意志
而不是决定论的生活。

非常感谢您的聆听。

我将提供
我一直在阅读的所有资源,这些资源

导致了这次
谈话或这次演讲,

并希望
能收到你的来信。

我希望你喜欢听这个。

非常感谢你。