What we miss when we focus on the average Am I Normal with Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

When we think about data,
we usually think about averages.

Average height, average salary,

average number of hours
spent on video calls.

It’s tempting to focus on these neat
little summaries of our world.

But the world is a lot messier
than these averages can make it out to be.

So instead, I look for the outliers.

They can offer a better reflection
of this chaos we call life.

And they can offer a different perspective

on the things that we think we understand.

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

Take, for instance, the stats
around teens and cigarettes.

According to the CDC,
between 1997 and 2019,

the percentage of American
high school students who smoked plummeted

from 36 to just six percent.

That seems like a pretty big win,

but when you break apart the data
and look at the outliers,

it is a totally different picture.

Among American Indian
and native Alaskan students,

cigarette usage is much higher
than that six percent average.

It comes in at a sizable 21 percent.

All other racial and ethnic groups
were in the single digits.

So what first seemed
like this great success story

is actually an indicator
of how much work we need to do

to reach some of the most
marginalized communities.

In general, when we present
data as a scatterplot,

the average would usually look like this.

And where there are outliers,

the typical approach
is to undervalue them,

to see them as a deviation
from the average

or from what society thinks is normal.

But I like to call
these outliers “lost birds.”

It’s a nickname I use for something
or someone who has gone astray.

If you look hard enough,

you’ll find that these lost birds
pop up everywhere.

Like my mom, for example.

She doesn’t like being on camera,
so this puppet will have to do.

She’s a soft spoken, hijabi woman
who isn’t much bigger than this puppet.

Because of that, it’s easy for some people
to underestimate her.

But don’t let those first
impressions fool you.

“In my generation,

we used to listen
and accept what they tell us.

‘Do what you’re told.’

But when I got older,

I just changed and I started to argue
my point and get what I want."

My mom’s a retired doctor,
an avid ugly-dress maker,

a mother of two and a grandmother of none.

Though she spends a fair amount of time
trying to speak that into existence,

“I think for every mother,
for her daughter, she wants a grandchild.”

(Laughter)

“Sorry, Mona.”

Moving on.

My mom is also a lost bird.

“Me?”

She has, statistically
speaking, gone astray.

“Yeah, but it was a good deviation.”

Back in the late ’70s,

my mom left Iraq and moved to the UK

to further her medical
training and practice.

She’s among the four percent of people
born in Iraq who now live abroad.

By the early 2000s,

just three percent of UK doctors
with her experience

were non-white and practicing
in her speciality.

My mom is a lost bird
because she is an outlier.

She’s one of the rare few
to leave her home country

and even rarer still
among her medical peers.

We all think that the people
that we love are special,

and there is some truth to that.

But it’s worth considering the ways
that we are all lost birds.

Because when we focus on the average
and we ignore the outliers,

we lose all of the richness and insights
that those stories provide.

But when we dig into the deviations,
we get to see the bigger picture.

One from a bird’s-eye view.

抄写员:

当我们考虑数据时,
我们通常会考虑平均值。

平均身高、平均工资、

视频通话的平均小时数。

很容易将注意力集中在
我们世界的这些简洁的小总结上。

但这个世界
比这些平均值所能想象的要混乱得多。

所以相反,我寻找异常值。

它们可以更好地反映
我们称之为生活的这种混乱。

他们可以

对我们认为我们理解的事物提供不同的视角。

【我正常吗? 与 Mona Chalabi]

以青少年和香烟的统计数据为例

根据 CDC 的数据,
在 1997 年至 2019 年间,吸烟

的美国高中生比例

从 36% 骤降至 6%。

这似乎是一个很大的胜利,

但是当你分解数据
并查看异常值时,

情况就完全不同了。

在美洲印第安人
和阿拉斯加原住民学生中,

卷烟使用量远
高于平均水平的 6%。

它以相当大的21%进入。

所有其他种族和民族
都是个位数。

所以最初
看起来这个伟大的成功

故事实际上是
我们需要做多少工作

才能接触到一些最
边缘化的社区的指标。

一般来说,当我们将
数据呈现为散点图时

,平均值通常看起来像这样。

在存在异常值的地方

,典型的做法
是低估它们

,将它们视为
偏离平均水平

或社会认为正常的情况。

但我喜欢称
这些异常值为“丢失的鸟类”。

这是我为某事
或误入歧途的人使用的昵称。

如果你仔细观察,

你会发现这些丢失的鸟
到处都是。

比如我妈。

她不喜欢在镜头前,
所以这个木偶必须这样做。

她是一个说话轻声细语的头巾女人
,比这个木偶大不了多少。

正因为如此,有些人很
容易低估她。

但不要让那些第一
印象欺骗你。

“在我这一代,

我们过去常常倾听
并接受他们告诉我们的东西。

“按你说的做。”

但是当我长大后,

我就改变了,我开始争论
我的观点并得到我想要的东西。”

我妈妈是一位退休的医生,
一个狂热的丑陋服装制造商,

一个两个孩子的母亲,一个没有祖母的人。

虽然她花了很长时间 相当多的时间
试图将其变为现实,

“我认为对于每个母亲,
对于她的女儿来说,她想要一个孙子。”

(笑声)

“对不起,莫娜。”

继续说下去。

我妈妈也是一只迷路的鸟。

“我 ?”

从统计
上讲,她误入歧途。

“是的,但这是一个很好的偏差。”

早在 70 年代后期,

我妈妈离开伊拉克,搬到英国

继续接受医学
培训和实践。

她是这四个人之一
出生在伊拉克的人现在居住在国外的百分比。

到 2000 年代初期,

只有 3% 的
有她经验

的英国医生是非白人并
在她的专业领域执业。

我妈妈是一只迷路的鸟,
因为她是一个异类。

她是其中之一 很少有人
离开她的祖国


在她的医学同龄人中更罕见。

我们都
认为我们所爱的人是特别的

,有 这是一些事实。

但值得考虑的是
,我们都是迷路的小鸟。

因为当我们关注平均值
而忽略异常值时,

我们就会失去这些故事提供的所有丰富性和洞察力

但是,当我们深入研究偏差时,
我们会看到更大的图景。

一个从鸟瞰的角度。