What If

[Music]

so

[Music]

well hello this is rob hopkins here and

i’m really thrilled to have been asked

to be part of this event and

what i want to talk to you about today

is about imagination

which feels vital in the scope of

everything else that you’re going to be

talking about today

the great canadian activist and writer

naomi klein once said

there are no non-radical solutions left

we’ve left it far far far too late

for anything other than big bold radical

ideas

the idea that we can just move forward

in little tiny little steps

little tweaks to this into that is

really not appropriate anymore

this is a time for reimagining and

rebuilding

absolutely everything because we are in

the time of the climate

and ecological emergency and the cuts

and the changes that we need to make

are huge and profound and we can either

see that as being something terrible

or we can see that as a huge opportunity

for imagination and for brilliance

and for working together and i think the

thing with imagination is that if we are

to create

a world in which we can thrive and

survive

we have to be able to imagine it first

and that capacity for being able to

imagine the future in different ways i

think is

really declining very sharply in our

culture there was research

that suggested that actually imagination

iq

rose together till the mid 1990s at

which point iq kept rising

imagination went into what they called a

steady and persistent decline

and we have in many ways created a

perfect storm of factors

that are causing our shared collective

imagination to shrink

we know that anxiety and stress and

trauma caused the

part of our brain where imagination

fires from to shrink to visibly shrink

we know that systemic racism and

colonization and social exclusion

and the wider the gap of inequality gets

our imagination shrinks we know that um

if if our basic needs for food and

shelter and security aren’t met

it’s very hard to live an imaginative

life in many ways you could argue that

imagination

is a function of privilege and this is a

time when we absolutely

need to be building our collective

imaginative

muscle so that we are in a position to

do the work that we need to do

so i want to talk to you today about two

words which i think are the two most

important words in our language in 2020

which are what if

and i want to start by telling you a

little story so just before the lockdown

i was invited to germany near munich

by an international company who make

outdoor clothing and who are widely

hailed as being one of the most

sustainable

companies in the world they do much that

is amazing but they invited me because

they were having a

um taking their team away to think about

uh yes we might be very sustainable but

do we act

in everything that we do as if this was

a climate and ecological emergency

no absolutely we don’t so i did a

workshop with them on the

on the evening and the next morning we

did an exercise we called the walk of

what if

the idea with the walk of what if was

that we had an overarching what if

question

which was what if this company in

everything that it did

acted as if this were a climate an

ecological emergency

so the invitation was to go for a walk

and to come up with their own what if

questions

within that that was the framing for the

for their questioning

but i said there are two rules only two

but they’re really important

the first one is that you should not be

constrained by current thinking so don’t

think

oh but will this fit in with our current

budget plans will this fit in with our

five-year

development strategy no no no none of

that clean slate

big ideas the second uh one

was that when somebody asks a what if

question

nobody is allowed to respond by saying

yes but

yes but is banned not allowed anymore

yes

and you can only respond by saying yes

and which is something

i learned from studying improvisational

theater

the idea that somebody will suggest

something and then someone else has to

say

yes and and to build on that hey we

could go to paris

yes and i could wear my nice hat yes and

when we get there we could go up the

eiffel tower with your hat and we could

fly your hat off the top you know you

build off each other in that way so

they went out for an hour they came back

after an hour

in a in a kind of an altered state of

consciousness

it was amazing with loads and loads and

loads of what-if questions

so i said okay write them all down on a

piece of paper

imagine that end of the room is really

really really urgent

that end of the room is not quite so

urgent in conversation with each other

arrange your what if questions

along this line and then we all gathered

up at the end with the most urgent ones

and we and then we took the ones that we

liked the most and we worked them up

into ideas

so by the end of the day there were six

projects that they could implement

tomorrow

it was fantastic and it gave me a real

taste of the power

of really good what if questions and

i’ve loved seeing like this

example in in northern ireland where

community groups are now using

what if as the as the question around

which to organize

how they reimagine things you start with

an exercise of

imagining that you’re stepping forward

into the future a future where we’ve

done everything we can possibly do

have a walk around in it what does it

smell like feel like sound like tastes

like what’s your experience

uh in that future and then what are the

what if questions that then

arise from that in terms of how we might

actually get there

what were the what if questions they

asked 10 years ago

that opened up the possibilities that

meant we were able to move forward to

this place now

and when i was researching the book i

spoke to ruth ben tovim

who is an incredible community arts

practitioner

and i said to her what for you were

there are the ingredients of a good

what-if question she said there are

three

the first one is that the person or the

people who are

asking that question have to be

genuinely curious as to what the answer

is going to be they’re not

just doing it as a formality they’re

genuinely curious

the second is it has to be a question

that is answerable in many many

different ways

so not like in school where we get given

a problem to which there is one solution

a what if question can be answered in

many many many varied ways

and the third one is that it should

offer a kind of a moment of pause

and that within the question is the is

the opportunity to see things

in a different way to give people a

glimpse

of something different that they could

step into so within the question

is that is that kind of taste of

possibility when i run workshops

like this one and we get people to work

together and to do that visioning and

come up with questions

the what if questions that emerge from

that are often just extraordinary

and really really powerful and one of my

favorite examples from the transition

movement is from liege

in belgium where liaison transition five

or six years ago came up with a what if

question

they said what if in a generation’s time

the majority of food

eaten in liege came from the land

closest to liege

beautiful so there’s a kind of a vision

within that question

of of that being the case

so i went to an event they ran where

they invited chefs and farmers and

baristas and all kinds of different

people who cared about food

four years later i went back and in that

time they had started 21

25 sorry new cooperatives they’d raised

five million euros of investment

from local people not from banks in

making those all a reality they had

a farm two vineyards a brewery four

shops in the center of the city

a local currency it’s now the vehicle

that is working with the municipality to

reimagine how the hospitals the schools

universities feed themselves i met the

mayor of the city who said

we used to say we wanted to be a smart

city now we want to be a transition city

this is now the story of our city

it’s amazing to see this kind of

reimagining of the food economy of a

city

for me it was really emotional as

someone who has spent the last

12 13 years with the transition movement

with this vision in my head of how the

future could be

trying to inspire people with it to go

to the engine and it exists

i’m having my lunch in it i’m meeting

people who are employed by it it was

just

magical but it started with people like

you

in communities like where you live

coming up with a really

really smart uh what if question that

then unlocked so many possibilities so i

want to offer a little something

to this event which i hope you might

find useful which is my attempt

to uh we’re together with a colleague

rob shorter to come up with

an answer to the question of if we want

to expand the imagination of the play of

the organizations we work in

the community where we live whatever how

do we do that

and i think there are four things this

is a thing that we call the imagination

sundial which tries to set out what

those four things are

first one is space we have to create

space

in our lives in our organizations for

the imagination

albert einstein always said his best

ideas came to him when he rode his

bicycle in the forest

we have to look at strategies like a

universal basic income

a four day working week as being

national

imagination strategies as much as

anything because they create more space

for what if questions and imagination so

the second one is place

and by place i mean places that we visit

that are either permanent or ephemeral

or or that move around or whatever that

we go to

and they give us a different experience

that mean that afterwards

we look at the world in a very different

place my one of my favorite examples is

in london where extinction rebellion

last year

took over waterloo bridge normally full

of cars and traffic and horrible air

pollution

and they planted trees down the middle

they blocked it with people they

filled it with food and space and

so many people for those two weeks who

cross that bridge every day

got to live and experience what it would

be like to live

with that bridge being a forest it was

really powerful and once you’ve had that

experience

it’s very hard to go backwards third one

is practices

things we do together which expand our

imagination

whether uh so and uh the ability to ask

really good what if questions

is is one of those and the transitional

movement is full of of things like that

and then the last one is pacts which is

that when we invite people to be

imaginative

because so often our experience from

being five and six years old at school

onwards

is that our imagination on the rare

occasions when it’s invited

is then sort of sidelined and maybe

humiliated a bit and not really welcomed

and just kind of ignored

and marginalized and how different it

would be

if when we came together and and

imagined

whoever the people above us would say

great idea let’s meet you in the middle

we’ll make a pact

and there are places now where that’s

starting to happen where we if we invite

people to be imaginative

we have to meet them in the middle so

that’s the sundial which i’d love to

hear if it’s something that you find

useful as a tool

for how we expand this and the last

thing i want to

to share with you is this and i don’t

show you this as a graph i show you this

as a story because it’s

really important for pulling together

what i’ve been talking about

in 2020 we stand on top of this mountain

and we have views more spectacular than

anyone has ever had before

and beneath our feet is more carbon more

debt

more inequality more anxiety more

plastic

than anyone has ever stood on top of

before and the guides at our side who

know this mountain really well

are saying we need to get down off this

mountain really really quickly look

there’s a storm coming in

for some people that’s enough that’s

enough to make us go oh

okay all right then let’s go down it

doesn’t work for a lot of people

and i feel like the one of the ways in

which imagination is

fundamental to this is that we need to

be able to bring to life for people

the welcome that awaits us on the

lowland

slopes uh of this mountain the

the food that awaits us the the love the

the carnival the the amazing beer and

wine that awaits us when we get there

the comfortable beds once we get there

if we can do that

and we can bring to life in people’s

imagination what that future would be

like

in a multi-sensory way then we create

the most powerful thing

that we need in 2020 which is longing we

create a deep

deep longing for that future and once

you’ve created a longing it becomes

inevitable

that you will get there without that

longing all the facts the figures the

research papers

all of that is completely meaningless we

have to create longing

we have to create memories of the future

and the what if questions that we

formulate now

as we stand on top of the mountain will

will be

fundamentally important to how we design

and navigate our way down off that

mountain and

within them also they offer us a taste

of what those lowland valleys and the

beautiful

warm safe welcome that awaits us there

will be like

so enjoy the rest of the of ted thank

you so much for inviting me

and i look forward to hearing all the

what if questions that you will generate

and share thank you so much

[Music]

you

[音乐]

所以

[音乐

] 你好,这里是 rob hopkins,

我很高兴被邀请

参加这次活动,

我今天想和你谈谈的

是关于想象力

,这在

你今天要谈论的其他一切

伟大的加拿大活动家和作家

娜奥米·克莱因曾经说过

,没有非激进的解决方案

了 我们可以

以微小的微小步骤

向前

迈进 我们需要做的

事情是巨大而深刻的,我们要么将其视为可怕的事情,

要么将其视为发挥

想象力、才华

和合作的巨大机会。 nk

有想象力的事情是,如果我们

要创造

一个我们可以在其中茁壮成长和生存的世界,

我们必须首先能够想象它

,而能够

以不同方式想象未来的能力我

认为

真的正在急剧下降 在我们的

文化中,有研究

表明实际上想象力

智商

一直在上升,直到 1990 年代中期,在

这一点上,智商一直在上升,

想象力进入了他们所谓的

稳定而持续的下降

,我们在很多方面创造了一场

完美的风暴,这些

因素正在导致 我们共同的集体

想象力缩小

我们知道焦虑、压力和

创伤导致

我们大脑中

想象的部分缩小到明显

缩小 我们知道,

如果我们对食物、

住所和安全的基本需求得不到满足,

那么就很难过上富有想象力的生活

生活在许多方面你可以争辩说

想象力

是特权的一种功能,这是

我们绝对

需要建立我们集体的

想象力

肌肉的时候,以便我们能够

做我们需要做的工作

所以我想 今天和你谈谈两个

词,我认为这是

2020 年我们语言中最重要的两个词,

如果我想先告诉你一个

小故事,所以就在封锁之前,

我被一个人邀请到慕尼黑附近的德国

生产

户外服装的国际公司,被广泛

誉为世界上最

可持续发展的

公司之一,他们做了很多

令人惊叹的事情,但他们邀请了我,因为

他们有一个

嗯,带他们的团队去思考,

嗯,是的,我们可能会 非常可持续,但是

我们是否

在我们所做的一切中都表现得好像这

是气候和生态紧急情况一样,

不,我们绝对没有,所以我

在晚上和第二天早上和他们一起

做了一个研讨会 一个我们称之为“

假设

”的练习

,我们有一个总体的假设

问题

,如果这家公司在

它所做的每一件事上都

表现得好像这是气候和

生态紧急情况,

所以邀请 是去散步

并提出他们自己的如果

问题,那是他们提问的框架,

但我说有两个规则只有两个

但它们真的很

重要第一个是你不应该

受到当前想法的限制,所以不要

想,

哦,但这是否符合我们目前的

预算计划,是否符合我们的

五年

发展战略?不,不,不,没有

那些白纸黑字的

大想法第二个,

呃,当有人 问一个如果

问题

没有人被允许回答“

是”但“

是”但被禁止不再允许“

是”

,你只能回答“是”

,这是

我从学习即兴戏剧中学到

的东西 想法有人会提出建议

,然后其他人必须

是,然后在此基础上,嘿,我们

可以去巴黎,

是的,我可以戴上我的漂亮帽子,是的,

当我们到达那里时,我们可以

带着你的帽子去埃菲尔铁塔 我们可以

把你的帽子从头顶上飞下来,你知道你

以这种方式相互建立起来,所以

他们出去了一个小时,他们

在一个小时后回来

,处于一种改变的意识状态

,负载和负载令人惊叹 和

大量假设性问题,

所以我说好吧,把它们都写在

一张纸上,

想象一下房间的尽头真的

真的很紧急

,房间的尽头不是那么

紧急,在彼此的谈话中

安排你的假设

沿着这条线提出问题,然后我们最后都收集

了最紧迫的问题

,然后我们选择了我们最喜欢的问题,我们

将它们

变成了想法,

所以到一天结束时,有六个

项目 他们可以实施

tomorro w

这太棒了,它让我真正

体验到

了非常好的假设问题的力量,

我喜欢在北爱尔兰看到这样的

例子,

社区团体现在使用

假设作为组织的问题

他们如何重新构想事物 你从

想象你正在

迈向未来的练习开始 一个我们已经

完成了我们可能做的一切的未来 在其中

四处走走 它

闻起来像什么 感觉像 听起来像 味道

像什么 你

在那个未来的经历,然后是

什么如果

问题,那么就我们如何

实际到达那里而言,

如果问题是什么,他们

在 10 年前提出的假设问题是什么

,这开辟了可能性,这

意味着我们能够 现在向前移动到

这个地方

,当我研究这本书时,我

与露丝·本·托维姆(ruth ben tovim)交谈,

他是一位了不起的社区艺术

从业者

,我对她说,你有什么

成分 一个

很好的假设问题,她说有

三个,第一个是

提出这个问题的人必须

真正好奇答案

是什么,他们

不仅仅是作为一个 形式 他们真的很

好奇 第二个是它必须是一个可以用许多不同方式回答的问题

所以不像在学校里,我们得到

一个有一个解决方案

的问题,如果问题可以在

很多方面得到回答 许多不同的方式

,第三个是它应该

提供一种暂停的时刻

,问题是

有机会

以不同的方式看待事物,让人们

瞥见

他们可以

踏入的不同事物 问题

在于,

当我举办

这样的研讨会时,这就是那种可能性的味道,我们让人们一起工作

,实现愿景并

提出

问题,如果出现的

问题通常是 只是非凡

且非常强大,我

最喜欢的过渡

运动的例子之一是来自

比利时的列日,五六年前的联络过渡

提出了一个假设

问题,

他们说如果在一代人的时间里

吃掉的大部分食物在 列日来自

最接近

美丽列日的土地,所以

在这个问题

中有一种愿景就是这种情况,

所以我参加了他们举办的一个活动,

他们邀请了厨师、农民和

咖啡师以及各种

关心的人

四年后我回去了,

那时他们已经开始了 21

25 对不起新的合作社 他们从当地人那里筹集了

500 万欧元的投资

,而不是从银行那里

使这一切成为现实 他们有

一个农场 两个葡萄园 一个啤酒厂 四个

商店 在市中心,

一种当地货币,它现在

是与市政当局合作的工具,以

重新构想医院、学校、

大学如何养活自己 我遇到

了该市的市长,他说

我们曾经说过我们想成为一个智慧

城市现在我们想成为一个转型城市

这现在是我们城市的故事

看到这种

对食品经济的重新构想真是太棒了

对我来说,一座城市真的很激动,因为

我在过去的

12 到 13 年中一直在进行过渡运动

我在里面吃

午餐 所以我

想为这个活动提供一些东西

,我希望你会

觉得有用,这是我的尝试

t 的戏剧 我们

在我们生活的社区中工作的组织无论

我们怎么做

,我认为有四

件事这是我们称之为想象日晷的东西,

它试图阐明

这四件事是什么

第一是我们必须的空间

在我们的组织中

为我们的生活创造空间以发挥想象力

阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦总是说

,当他在森林里骑自行车时,他会想到他最好的想法,

我们必须将诸如

普遍基本收入之类

的策略视为

国家的

想象力策略每周工作四天 最重要的是,

因为它们

为假设问题和想象力创造了更多空间,

所以第二个是地方

,我所说的地方是指我们访问的地方,这些地方

要么是永久的,要么是短暂的

,要么是四处走动的,要么是

我们去的任何地方

,他们给了 我们有不同的经历

,这意味着之后

我们会在一个非常不同的地方看待世界

我最喜欢的例子之一是

在伦敦,灭绝叛乱

持续 一年

接管了滑铁卢桥,通常到处

都是汽车,交通和可怕的空气

污染

,他们在中间种了树,

他们用人挡住了它,他们

用食物和空间填满了它,

在这两个星期里

,每天穿过那座桥的

人很多 生活和体验将

那座桥作为森林生活的感觉,它

真的很强大,一旦你有了这种

体验,

就很难倒退第三个

是练习

我们一起做的事情,这扩大了我们的

想象力,

无论是这样和 呃,问

得真好,如果问题

是其中之一,过渡

运动充满了类似的东西

,最后一个是契约,

即当我们邀请人们发挥

想象力时,

因为我们经常从

被 从五六岁开始上学

的时候,我们的想象力在被邀请的极

少数情况下会

被边缘化,可能会

受到一点羞辱,而不是真的 欢迎

,只是有点被忽视

和边缘化,

如果我们走到一起,

想象

我们上面的人会说

好主意,那会有多不同,让我们在中间见你,

我们会达成协议

,现在有些地方

开始发生在我们邀请

人们富有想象力的地方,

我们必须在中间遇到他们,所以

这就是日晷,我很想

听听它是否对你

有用,作为

我们如何扩展这个和最后一

件事的工具 我想

与您分享的是这个,我不会

以图表的形式向您展示,

而是以故事的形式向您展示,因为这

对于整合

我在 2020 年一直在谈论的内容非常重要,

我们站在这座山的顶部

我们拥有比以往任何人都更壮观的景色

,我们脚下有更多的碳 更多的

债务

更多的不平等 更多的焦虑 更多的

塑料

我说我们需要从这座

山上

下来,真的很快

我觉得

想象力

对此至关重要的方式之一是我们需要

能够为人们带来生活

在这座山的低地斜坡上等待我们的欢迎

等待我们的食物

爱嘉年华

当我们到达那里时等待我们的令人惊叹的啤酒和葡萄酒

到达那里后舒适的床

如果我们能做到的话

,我们可以在人们的

想象

中以多感官的方式实现未来的样子 然后我们创造

我们在 2020 年需要的最强大的东西,那就是渴望我们

对那个未来产生深深的渴望,一旦

你创造了一种渴望

,你就不可避免地会在没有那种

渴望的情况下到达那里所有的事实

研究论文的数字

所有这一切都毫无意义 我们

必须创造渴望

我们必须创造对未来的记忆

以及我们

现在

站在山顶时提出的假设问题将对

我们的设计和设计方式至关重要

沿着我们的路从那座山上下来

,他们也让我们领略

了那些低地山谷和

等待我们的美丽温暖安全的欢迎,

所以享受剩下的 ted

非常感谢你邀请我

和 我期待

听到您提出

和分享的所有假设问题,非常感谢您

[音乐]