Do Not Trust Your Brain Innate Biases are the Bane of our Existence
[Music]
i’m terrified of having children
not because they smell or that they
scream for no reason
but seriously kudos to all the parents
out there because wow
and not because i would be a terrible
parent despite what some of my alleged
friends might have to say
but because i’m actually very concerned
about bringing them into this planet
that is becoming increasingly
uncomfortable and dangerous to inhabit
one of my biggest fears is having my
child 20 years from now
maybe even sooner look me in the eyes
and say
mom you knew it was going to be like
this we must make decisions today that
offset that question from
ever being asked i would be so much more
confident about our future
if the decisions we were making were
entrenched in science
in facts but they’re really not
and when they’re not precious resources
are misspent
time money productivity are lost
so if not data what are decision inputs
i have dedicated my career to
understanding
what factors influence our perceptions
of risks
and how those risks trump reality in
terms of our decision-making and
behavioral outcomes
it turns out we are not rational
attributers of risk
which then means we are not rational
decision makers
let’s try this for example to help me
convince you
what do you think is more likely to kill
you a shark attack
or falling airplane parts if you’re like
most people who answer this poll
you’re likely to say a shark attack it’s
more sensational
easier to recall even though falling
airplane parts are 30 times
more likely to kill you so what’s going
on here
we clearly aren’t judging wrist
accurately
since the dawn of our species our brains
have been designed
to confront and react in certain ways to
the risks around us
we are designed to overreact to risks
that are novel
unfamiliar and have the potential for
catastrophic consequences
and honestly that’s worked out well for
us for the most part
our ancestors would see a poisonous
snake and immediately jump start the
response system
to hopefully run away there were cues in
the environment
that would help their brains scan and
process the
risk for example what is the color of
the snake
what’s its position and stance are there
other animals around
most of this processing and subsequent
decision making was subliminal
and automated that’s her relief can you
imagine
if our ancestors needed to take the time
to really process the risk
the snake would have won and we likely
wouldn’t be here today
the risks we face now are starkly
different from those of our ancestors
but the way our brains are wired are not
we find ourselves in a complex
interconnected
risk landscape and even though we have
more time to make decisions about the
risk we face
we still tend to make snap judgments
none of us are immune to this
not even those of us who study it we
systematically overestimate
risks that aren’t that serious like
vaccinating our children
or eating non-organic foods and we
systematically underestimate risks that
are
serious like the potential for a disease
outbreak to ground our lives to
screeching halt
we think to ourselves it won’t happen to
us
we’re programmed to be overconfident
we’re programmed
to ignore serious seemingly far away and
slow moving risks
like rising sea levels this is how our
brain wiring dictates our
perceptions we are influenced by
triggers such as whether or not we can
see the risk
or whether or not we trust the person
communicating about the risk
to us even robust findings from the
field of sociology show us how our
political identities
can influence our perceptions of risk
for example those who identify as
conservatives in america
are more likely to perceive lower risk
of covid19
and police brutality as compared to
those who identify as progressives
additionally well-established triggers
in the field of risk perception a
sampling of which you can see here
include factors such as how voluntary is
the risk
how sensational is it remember those
shark attacks
there is a reason we are wired to make
snap judgments based on seemingly
unrelated context cues
it is a human evolutionary trait
designed to help us avoid
cognitive dissonance or that
uncomfortable feeling we get
when we are confronted with information
that might be contradictory
to our entrenched beliefs which may be
integral
to our identity to our tribe
the visceral need to belong to a tribe
is intrinsically human
from our early ancestors who needed to
belong to a group for their very
survival
to modern day just look at an
increasingly polarized america
where we see people on both sides of the
spectrum digging in their heels on a
host of issues
just to stay true to their political
tribal identity
even issues historically and generally
free from politicalization
like infectious disease are not immune
no pun intended there
as science is becoming increasingly
politicized i am definitely
on the front lines of experiencing it i
have network producers scratching their
heads
trying to figure out how to label me am
i a liberal scientist
or a conservative scientist can i just
be a scientist
apparently not it’s not how we’re wired
when i’m in the media and i’m presenting
on climate science
i have the extreme right calling me a
kool-aid drinking
al gore kool-aid drinking liberal and
when i’m presenting on
evidence that might contradict severe
social distancing measures
now i’m a trump supporter i clearly
can’t win
but if i have to choose an identity in
this time of politicized science
let it be radical centrist and that i
value facts above
all else it’s a lonely position to
occupy but that’s a whole nother ted
talk
i’m not complaining i have chosen to be
an unapologetic communicator
of the science of the facts and i thrive
in it
i know that the interpretation and
reception of my messages
will be based on those innate biases
and i also know that correcting for
existing erroneous beliefs
will require us to first admit and
accept that we are being subliminally
influenced
by cognitive triggers that are beyond
our control
but we can regain control of our
decisions first we need to recognize
what fuels our perceptions is it our
political identity
is it the ease of recall is it trust in
the communicator
we need to see what feeds our fears
question our initial judgments
and ultimately question whether or not
we are overreacting to the base rate
statistics of a particular risk
just look and see how wrong we get it
actual risk
versus the perception of risk are rarely
aligned
from those we overestimate like plane
crashes to those we underestimate like
radon gas
these are cognitive shortcomings but we
know this now
and we can do the due diligence and we
can do the research
to recognize that we need to get a grasp
on reality
and ultimately to become better aligned
to the facts
this is step one of what you can do at
an individual level
to help address the looming challenges
ahead for us challenges that will
require us to make tough decisions
entrenched in science not in ideology
you too beca can become radical in your
commitment to the facts
to the science and then you can think
about challenging your family
your friends and your communities to
also follow suit
you will inevitably get pushback i
certainly do
early on in my media career i was
interviewed by bill o’reilly
yes that bill o’reilly on whether a
recent national climate assessment
report
that had just come out was bogus or not
i spoke the facts as true now as they
were then
and the abuse i received then and now
i was called a mouthpiece for evil i was
told to go back to my home country
you know the foreign state of new jersey
i’m not gonna lie i actually got a kick
out of it i thought to myself
this must be what a kardashian feels
like but seriously
making waves and getting reactions means
that people are listening
they’re lashing out because of the
cognitive dissonance that they feel
that’s normal we’re potentially
challenging entrenched
beliefs and even people’s identities
we need to have compassion for others we
need to find common ground
and we need to consistently reach out
there’s no alternative
inaction is costing us precious time
from veering off a path
that is taking us to a global
temperature point that we will not be
able to withstand
we are currently on target to reach it
by 2050.
sure we’ve heard this before there’s
approximately a decade left
to turn the tide on a warming planet
this may sound inflammatory to some of
you
but my friends as the planet heats up
and as the global human population
increases we can anticipate
increased habitat encroachment and
destruction
which means increased engagement with
exotic wild animals
that we haven’t historically engaged
with bats
porcupines snakes for food for trade
all of this increases the likelihood of
disease
to emerge and remember covin 19 is a
mild disease by virology standards
there is potential for far more lethal
disease to emerge
and we’ve seen from covet 19 just how
disruptive even a mild virus can be
increasing emerging and infectious
diseases alongside more
frequent and intense hurricanes droughts
wildfires tornadoes
can be overwhelming can make some of us
feel like
we shouldn’t be procreating so let’s
have compassion for those who fear for
the next generation
and their perceived role in that future
suffering like me
let’s also recognize that it’s just a
perception
and now we know the limits to our
perceptions we have the human ingenuity
to overcome the challenges we face and
to regain control of our perceptions
let’s confront our brains let’s tease
out our innate biases
and let’s better align to the science to
the data
for better faster more evidence-based
decisions
for our families communities and our
very existence
i do want children i want to be able to
see my kids play outside
without time limits because of dangerous
heat we can have that future
a future where we are not just surviving
but thriving
a planet that is cleaner more efficient
more equitable
it can be a reality but we need to start
by making better decisions
now