A test for Parkinsons with a phone call Max Little

so well I do applied mass and this is a

peculiar problem for anyone who does

applied math is that we are like

management consultants no one knows what

the hell we do so I’m going to give you

some attempt today to try and explain to

you what I do

so dancing is one of the most human of

activities we delight at ballet

virtuosos and tap dancers you’ll see

later on it now ballet requires an

extraordinary level of expertise and a

high level of skill and probably a level

of initial suitability that may well

have a genetic component to it now sadly

neurological disorders such as

Parkinson’s disease gradually destroy

this extraordinary ability as of his

doing to my friend yam stripling who was

a virtuoso ballet dancer in his time so

great progress and treatment has been

made over the years however there are

6.3 million people worldwide who have

the disease and they have to live with

incurable weakness tremor rigidity any

other symptoms that go along with the

disease so what we need our objective

tools to detect the disease before it’s

too late we need to be able to measure

progression objectively and ultimately

with only way we’re going to know when

we actually have a cure is when we have

an objective measure that can answer

that for sure but frustratingly with

Parkinson’s disease and other movement

disorders there are no biomarkers

there’s no simple blood tests that you

can do and the best that we have is like

this 20-minute neurologist test you have

to go to the clinic to do it it’s very

very costly and that means they’re

outside the clinical trials it’s just

never done it’s never done but what if

patients could do this test at home now

that would actually save on a difficult

trip to clinic and what if patients

could do that test themselves right no

expensive staff time required it takes

about three hundred dollars right away

in the neurologist clinic to do it so

what I want to propose to you as an

unconventional way in which we can try

to achieve this because you see in one

sense at least we are all virtuoso it’s

like my friend yam stripling so here we

have a video are the vibrating vocal

folds now this is healthy and this is

somebody making speech sounds and we can

think of ourselves as vocal ballet

dancers

because we have to coordinate all of

these vocal organs when we make sounds

and we all actually have the genes for

it Fox b2 for example and like ballet

it takes an extraordinary level of

training I mean just think how long it

takes a child to learn to speak and from

the sound we can actually track the

vocal fold position as it vibrates and

just as the limbs are affected in

Parkinson’s so too are the vocal organs

so in the bottom trace you can see

example of a regular vocal fold tremor

we see all the same symptoms we see

vocal tremor weakness and rigidity the

speech actually becomes quieter and more

breathy after a while and that’s one of

the example symptoms of it

so these vocal effects can actually be

quite subtle in some cases but with any

digital microphone and using precision

voice analysis software in combination

with the latest in machine learning

which is very advanced by now we can now

quantify exactly where somebody lies on

a continuum between health and disease

using voice signals alone so these voice

based tests how do they stack up against

expert clinical tests well they’re both

non-invasive the neurologists test is

non-invasive they’re both use existing

infrastructure don’t have to design a

whole new set of hospitals to do it and

they’re both accurate okay

but in addition voice based tests are

non expert that means they can be

self-administered they’re high speed

take about 30 seconds at the most

they’re ultra low-cost and we all know

that happens when something becomes

ultra low-cost it becomes massively

scalable and so here are some amazing

goals that I think we can deal with now

we can reduce logistical difficulties

for patients no need to go to the clinic

for a routine checkup we can do

high-frequency monitoring to get

objective data we can perform low-cost

mass recruitment for clinical trials and

we can make population scale screening

feasible for the first time we will have

the opportunity to start to search for

the early biomarkers of disease before

it’s too late

so taking the first steps towards this

today we’re launching the Parkinson’s

voice initiative with a key lab and

patients like me we’re aiming to record

a very large number of voices worldwide

to collect enough data to start to

tackle these four goals we have local

numbers accessible to three-quarters of

a billion people on the planet

anyone healthy oil Parkinson’s can call

in and cheaply and leave recordings a

few cents each and I’m really happy to

announce that we’ve already hit six

tenth of our target just in eight hours

thank you

connects by taking all these samples I

have let’s say 10,000 people yeah

will you you’ll be able to tell who’s

healthy and who’s not what way are you

gonna get out of those things so what

will happen is that during a call you

have to indicate whether or not you have

the disease on that right you see some

people may not do it they may not get

through it but we’ll get a very large

sample of data that is collected from

all different circumstances and it’s

getting it in different circumstances

that matter because then we are looking

at ironing out the confounding factors

and looking for the actual markers of

disease so you’re 86 percent accurate

right now

it’s much better than that actually my

student fantasy so I have to plug him

because he’s done some fantastic work

and now he has proved that it works of a

mobile telephone network as well which

enables this project and we’re getting

99% accuracy 99 well that’s an

improvement so so what that means is

people be able to people be able to call

in from their mobile phones and do this

test yeah and people with Parkinson’s

could call in record their voice and

then their doctor can check up on their

progress see where they’re doing in this

course the disease absolutely thanks so

much

max little everybody thanks

you

我做的应用质量很好,

对于任何应用数学的人来说,这是一个特殊的问题

,我们就像

管理顾问,没有人知道

我们到底在做什么,所以我今天要给你

一些尝试,试着向

你解释 我所做的

跳舞是我们最喜欢芭蕾舞大师和踢踏舞者的最人性化的活动之一,

你稍后会看到

它现在芭蕾舞需要

非凡的专业知识和

高水平的技能,可能还有一定程度

的初始适应性

现在很可能有遗传

成分 然而,全世界有

630 万人患有

这种疾病,他们不得不忍受

无法治愈的虚弱震颤僵硬伴随疾病而来的任何

其他症状,

因此 我们需要我们的客观

工具来在

为时已晚之前检测疾病我们需要能够

客观地并最终衡量进展

,只有这样我们才能知道

我们什么时候真正有治愈方法是我们有

一个客观的衡量标准可以回答

可以肯定但令人沮丧的是,

帕金森病和其他运动

障碍没有生物标志物

,没有简单的血液测试

可以做,我们拥有的最好的就是像

这个 20 分钟的神经科医生测试,你必须

去诊所做它 非常

非常昂贵,这意味着他们

在临床试验之外 它只是

从来没有做过 它从来没有做过 但是如果

患者现在可以在家中进行此测试

实际上将节省去诊所的艰难

旅行以及如果患者

可以自己进行该测试怎么办 对 不需要

昂贵的员工时间

马上

在神经科医生诊所就需要大约 300 美元才能做到这一点所以

我想向你提出的建议是一种

非常规的方式 我们可以

尝试实现这一目标,因为您

至少从某种意义上说,我们都是演奏家,

就像我的朋友 yam stripling 所以这里我们

有一个视频是振动的声带,

现在这是健康的,这是

有人发出语音,我们可以

把自己想象成声乐

芭蕾舞者,

因为

当我们发出声音时,我们必须协调所有这些发声器官,

而且我们实际上都有它的基因

,例如 Fox b2,就像芭蕾舞一样,

它需要非常高的训练水平,

我的意思是想想多长时间

孩子需要学会说话,

从声音中我们实际上可以跟踪

声带振动时的位置,

就像帕金森氏症中四肢受到影响一样,发声器官也受到影响,

因此在底部跟踪中,您可以看到

常规的示例 声带震颤

我们看到所有相同的症状 我们看到

声带震颤 无力和僵硬 一段时间后,

讲话实际上变得更安静和更有

气息,这是它

的典型症状之一,所以

在某些情况下,声音效果实际上可能非常微妙,但使用任何

数字麦克风并使用精确的

语音分析软件

与最新的机器学习

相结合,现在非常先进,我们现在可以

准确量化某人

在健康和健康之间的连续性 疾病

单独使用语音信号,所以这些

基于语音的测试它们如何与

专家临床测试相媲美它们都是

非侵入性的神经科医生的测试

是非侵入性的它们都使用现有的

基础设施不必设计一个

全新的 一组医院来做这件事,

它们都很准确,

但是基于语音的测试

不是专家,这意味着它们可以

自我管理它们的速度很快

,最多需要大约 30 秒

它们是超低成本和 我们都知道

,当某些东西变得

超低成本时,它就会变得

可大规模扩展,所以这里有一些令人惊奇的

目标,我认为我们现在可以处理这些目标,

我们可以减少后勤困难

lties 病人不需要去诊所

做例行检查我们可以做

高频监测以获得

客观数据我们可以

为临床试验进行低成本的大规模招募

我们可以第一次使人群规模筛选

可行我们将

有机会在为时已晚之前开始寻找

疾病的早期生物标志物,

所以今天迈出第一步,

我们将

与一个重点实验室和

像我这样的患者一起发起帕金森的声音倡议,我们的目标是记录

一个非常大的 全球范围内的声音数量

来收集足够的数据以开始

解决这四个目标我们有本地

电话号码可供

地球上

四分之三的人使用 我真的很高兴地

宣布,我们

已经在八小时内达到了目标的十分之六,

谢谢你

通过采集所有这些样本来联系

我假设有 10,000 人 是的

,您将能够分辨出谁是

健康的,谁不是,您

将如何摆脱这些事情,所以

会发生的是,在通话期间您

必须

表明您是否患有疾病 有些

人可能不这样做,他们可能无法

通过它,但我们会得到一个非常大

的数据样本,这些数据是从

所有不同的情况下收集的

,并且在不同的情况下得到它很

重要,因为那时我们

正在考虑消除混淆因素

并寻找疾病的实际标记,

所以你现在的准确率为 86%

这比我

学生的幻想要好得多,所以我必须阻止他,

因为他做了一些了不起的工作

,现在他已经证明它可以在

手机上运行 网络也

支持这个项目,我们得到了

99% 的准确率 99 很好,这是一个

改进,所以这意味着

人们能够

通过手机拨打电话并执行此操作

测试是的,患有帕金森氏症的人

可以打电话录下他们的声音,

然后他们的医生可以检查他们的

进展,看看他们在这

门课程中的表现,这种疾病绝对感谢这么

多,

最大的一点,每个人都感谢