Getting out of this pandemic and staying out of the next one

[Music]

a mysterious respiratory illness shows

up in our city

and starts spreading through our

hospitals killing one out of every 10

people it infects

we soon realize that we’re not alone the

same thing

is happening in other cities around the

world

now here in toronto a colleague of mine

another infectious disease physician

gets sick with the illness and since

we’re both in the same line of work

i start imagining scenarios where i’m

getting infected

we learn that the outbreak likely

started in an animal market in china

and is caused by a virus the world has

never seen before

and has no immunity to under a

microscope it looks a bit like the sun

so it’s called a coronavirus

now this isn’t the story of covid19

this happened 18 years ago

it’s the story of the first novel

coronavirus outbreak

sars which spread to dozens of countries

around the world

now thankfully my colleagues survived

but other health care workers

died on the front lines

the world had never seen anything like

this before but it was clear

this wouldn’t be the last time the clock

to the next outbreak was already ticking

and we weren’t prepared and after

watching this virus our city

i knew that preparing for the next

outbreak or the next pandemic

that this would be the most important

work i would do in my lifetime

and when you’re trying to confront

something as big as a pandemic

it’s pretty easy to feel small

now i’m sure you felt this way at some

point in your life

there’s a problem you see in the world

and it needs a solution

but it’s big but it’s hard to know where

to begin and hard to know if your

efforts will

make a difference but it’s also

important to remember that

every pandemic in history started

with just one person now there’s a

passage in the talmud that has always

resonated with me as a physician

it says whoever saves a single life

it is considered as if they have saved

the entire world

and the lesson is that when we touch one

person’s life

we have no idea what they might then

bring to the rest of the world

and what it reveals is that our actions

however small and insignificant they may

seem in the moment

can create a series of ripples that

ultimately

reach and impact all of humanity

and it’s a powerful idea that inspired

me to take that first step

so i spent the next 10 years studying

outbreaks and how they spread

in doing so i analyzed billions of data

points on the world’s air travel

which is comprised of this vast network

of arteries that

binds the global community together it

was fascinating

research because it was a bit like

studying the anatomy and physiology of a

global organism

now within this network we’ve learned

that outbreak spread

incredibly fast and that if we want to

stay a step ahead

we’re going to have to move even faster

so as a physician and a scientist

i took a complete leap of faith and

founded a company

called bluedot to translate the

discoveries from my research

into digital technologies that could

literally spread knowledge around the

world faster

than any outbreak and for the past seven

years

bluedot’s eclectic team of doctors and

scientists and engineers

we’ve been building a global early

warning system

for outbreaks now this system

uses artificial intelligence to detect

murmurs

of emerging outbreaks across the planet

by reading and sorting through vast

amounts of online data

in 65 different languages and it does

this every 15 minutes 24 hours a day

it then connects each outbreak we detect

with data on the world’s travel pattern

so we can anticipate

how these outbreaks will spread this

system

generates the intelligence we need to

mobilize timely

effective and better coordinated

responses to outbreaks

so let’s fast forward to the morning of

december 31st

  1. now as most of us were preparing

to ring in the new decade

our system pushed out an alert of an

unusual cluster

of pneumonia cases in a city called

wuhan in china

a few seconds later it identified the

cities that we should be looking to next

bangkok and tokyo were at the top of

that list

and because our team was particularly

concerned about this event

we then published the first

peer-reviewed scientific study on this

outbreak in early january

so we could share our findings with the

world

now a few days later the first case

outside of china is reported in bangkok

and three days later the second case is

reported in tokyo

now at this moment my heart sinks

because

in order for cases to show up in these

cities

this means that the outbreak in wuhan

has to be

much larger than the official report

suggests

and then we learn that the outbreak

is caused by a coronavirus that the

world has never seen before

and has no immunity to

now as the outbreak continues to spread

i’m increasingly concerned that it’s

just a matter of time before this virus

shows up in our city and it’s a bit of a

surreal time because

i’m seeing people go about their daily

lives

blissfully unaware of the disruption

that is coming

now a few days later after our kids are

in bed

my wife and i go over my life insurance

policies and my will

because i would soon be working at the

hospital

treating patients with infectious

diseases

and this angst that i felt 18 years

earlier

deep in the pit of my stomach during the

sars outbreak

that feeling was now back

so here we are in the midst of the worst

pandemic

in a hundred years and today we all

understand

just how interconnected our world is

but i’m not sure we fully appreciate

just how interdependent

our world is now there’s an aphorism

you’ve likely heard

those who cannot remember the past are

condemned

to repeat it do you remember

the zika outbreak a few years ago

or the ebola outbreak a few years before

that or

the h1n1 flew pandemic a few years

before that

in just the past 10 years the world

health organization has declared six

outbreaks

to be global public health emergencies

now that’s an average of one global

emergency every 20 months

which means if we continue on our

current path

there’s a good chance we will find

ourselves in another dangerous outbreak

during this pandemic or shortly

thereafter so what do so many

of these outbreaks have in common

they started when viruses

normally found in animals made the leap

over to humans

we’re stuck in a cycle and

mother nature’s trying to tell us

something she’s trying to tell us that

our health

our security our prosperity

these things that we value are deeply

intertwined with the health of other

living systems across our planet

when we industrialize agriculture and

consume

billions of livestock every year

we’re creating sparks that could ignite

the next dangerous outbreak

or the next pandemic

when we consume wild animals or when our

actions

or our inactions lead to the disruption

of wildlife ecosystems

we’re opening up a pandora’s box of

viruses that could be far worse

than cobit 19.

now our memory of these past outbreaks

faded quickly but this time

mother nature has hit the pause button

for all of us

she’s forcing us to reflect and

encouraging us

to interact more gracefully with our

planet

now getting ahead of outbreaks has been

my life’s work

but i know that it’s not enough the

amazing people i work with at blue dot

can tell the world

that a storm is coming and can help to

safely

navigate through it but we can’t prevent

that storm from happening

that task belongs to you

now i know it’s easy

to feel small and to be overwhelmed by

the sheer scale of this problem

but remember that every pandemic

starts with just one person and know

that there are things you can do

every day to help keep us out of the

next pandemic

in our household we put this into

practice every time we sit down and have

a meal together

before we eat we say itadakimasu

it’s a phrase i first heard in japan and

it literally translates to

i humbly accept and

we’ve used it as an opportunity to be

more mindful

of how something as simple as the foods

we choose to eat

can have far reaching impacts across the

globe

18 years ago i watched a tiny virus

humble an entire city

and that moment was my calling

today a tiny virus has humbled the

entire planet

and this moment might be your calling

covid19 has captured the attention of

every government

every business and every person on the

planet

which is pretty remarkable that we’re

all focused on this one thing

so we’ve got a rare opportunity to help

the world break free of this destructive

cycle

that we’re currently in and to create a

world

that is better than the one we had

before the pandemic

remember whoever saves a single life

it is considered as if they have saved

the entire

world those words inspired me to take my

first step

i hope that they will inspire you to

take yours

[音乐]

一种神秘的呼吸系统疾病

出现在我们的城市,

并开始在我们的

医院传播,每 10 人中就有 1

人被它感染

我们很快意识到我们并不孤单,

同样的事情

正在世界各地的其他城市

发生 多伦多 我的一位同事,

另一位传染病医生

得病了,由于

我们都在同一行工作,

我开始想象我

被感染的场景,

我们了解到疫情可能

始于中国的一个动物市场

, 是由一种世界上从未见过的病毒引起的

,在

显微镜下对它没有免疫力 它看起来有点像太阳,

所以现在它被称为冠状病毒

这不是 covid19 的故事 这是

发生在 18

年前的故事 第一次新型

冠状病毒爆发

sars 现在蔓延到

世界各地的几十个国家,

幸好我的同事们幸存下来,

但其他医护人员

死在

了世界从未有过的前线 以前见过这样的事情

,但很明显

这不会是下一次疫情爆发的最后一次

,我们还没有做好准备,在

看到这种病毒使我们的城市瘫痪后,

我知道为下一次爆发做准备

或 下一次大流行

,这

将是我一生中最重要的工作

,当你试图面对

像大流行

这样大的事情时,现在很容易感到渺小,

我相信你

在你的某个时刻有这种感觉 生活

中你在世界上看到了一个问题

,它需要一个解决方案,

但它很大,但很难知道从

哪里开始,也很难知道你的

努力是否会

有所作为,但同样

重要的是要记住,

历史上的每一次大流行都

始于 一个人现在

塔木德中有一段话一直

引起我作为一名医生的共鸣,

它说,谁拯救了一个人的生命,

就被认为是拯救

了整个世界

,教训是当我们触摸 o

我们不知道他们可能

会给世界其他地方

带来什么

这是一个强有力的想法,激励

我迈出了第一步,

所以我在接下来的 10 年里研究

疫情以及它们是如何传播

的,我分析

了世界航空

旅行的数十亿个数据点

将全球社区联系在一起 这

是一项引人入胜的

研究,因为它有点像

研究全球有机体的解剖学和生理学

现在在这个网络中,我们

了解到疫情传播

速度非常快,如果我们想

领先一步,

我们将

作为一名医生和科学家,

我必须更快地行动,所以我完全相信了,并

成立了一家

名为 bluedot 的公司来翻译

来自 我

对数字技术的研究可以

比任何疫情都更快地在世界范围内传播知识,在过去的

七年里,

bluedot 不拘一格的医生、

科学家和工程师团队,

我们一直在为疫情建立一个全球

预警系统

,现在这个系统

使用人工智能

通过阅读和整理

65 种不同语言的大量在线数据来检测全球新发疫情的杂音,

它每天 24 小时每 15 分钟一次

,然后将我们检测到的每次疫情

与世界旅行模式的数据联系起来,

所以我们 可以预测

这些疫情将如何传播,这个

系统会

产生我们需要的情报,以便

及时

有效和更好地协调

应对疫情,

所以让我们快进到 2019 年 12 月 31 日上午。

现在,我们大多数人都在准备

迎接新的十年,

我们的 系统在一个 ci 中推出了一个

不寻常

的肺炎病例群的警报 ty 几秒钟后打电话给

中国的武汉,

它确定

了我们下一个应该去的城市

曼谷和东京位居榜首

,因为我们的团队特别

关注这一事件,

我们随后发表了第一个

同行评审的科学研究 关于

1 月初的这次爆发,

所以我们可以在

几天后与世界

分享

我们

的发现 为了让病例出现在这些

城市,

这意味着武汉的疫情

必须

比官方报告所暗示的要大得多

,然后我们才知道疫情

是由一种世界上从未见过的冠状病毒引起的,而且对这种病毒

没有免疫力

现在随着疫情继续蔓延,

我越来越担心

这种病毒

出现在我们的城市只是时间问题,这有点

超现实 因为

我看到人们幸福地过着他们的日常生活,

没有意识到

几天后我们的

孩子上床睡觉后即将发生的破坏

我的妻子和我回顾了我的人寿保险

单和我的遗嘱,

因为我很快就会在

治疗传染病患者的医院,

以及 18 年前非典爆发

期间我在胃深处

感受到的这种焦虑现在又回来了,

所以我们正处于一百年来最严重的

大流行之中

,今天我们 所有人都

了解

我们的世界是多么相互关联,

但我不确定我们是否完全理解

我们的世界现在是多么相互依存有一句格言

你可能听说过

那些不记得过去的人

注定

要重蹈覆辙你还

记得寨卡病毒的爆发吗? 几年前或几年前

的埃博拉病毒爆发或几年前

的 H1N1 流感大流行

在过去 10 年中,

世界卫生组织已宣布六

现在平均

每 20 个月就会出现一次全球突发公共卫生事件,

这意味着如果我们继续

目前的道路

,我们很有可能会

在这次大流行期间或之后不久发现自己处于另一场危险的爆发中

,那么这么多人怎么办?

这些暴发的共同点

是当

通常在动物身上发现的病毒

转移到

人类身上时开始的

当我们实现农业工业化并

每年消耗

十亿牲畜时,我们重视与地球上其他生命系统的健康密切相关

我们的作为或不作为会导致

野生动物生态系统的破坏

我们正在打开一个潘多拉魔盒 f

病毒可能比 cobit 更糟糕

现在我们对这些过去爆发的记忆

迅速消退,但这一次

大自然为我们所有人按下了暂停按钮

她迫使我们反思并

鼓励我们

现在与我们的星球更优雅地互动 提前预防疫情是

我毕生的工作,

但我知道这还不够,

与我在蓝点共事的优秀员工

可以告诉

世界风暴即将来临,并帮助

安全地

渡过难关,但我们无法阻止

这场风暴 从发生

该任务属于您

现在我知道很

容易感到渺小并被

这个问题的规模所淹没,

但请记住,每次大流行都

始于一个人,并且

知道您每天都可以做一些事情

来帮助保持 我们摆脱了家庭中的

下一次流行病

我们每次坐下来一起

吃饭前都将其付诸实践我们说itadakimasu

这是我在日本第一次听到的一句话

盟友转化为

我谦虚地接受,

我们利用它作为一个机会,

更加注意

我们选择吃的食物这样简单的事情如何

在全球范围内产生深远的影响

18 年前,我目睹了一种微小的病毒

使整个

那一刻是我

今天

的召唤 这是一件事,

所以我们有一个难得的机会来

帮助世界摆脱我们目前所处的这种破坏性

循环

,并创造一个

比我们

在大流行之前拥有的世界更好的世界

记住谁挽救了一条

生命 被认为好像他们拯救

了整个

世界那些话激励我迈出我的

第一步

我希望他们能激励你

迈出你的第一步