Modern cavemen the Coming World Transformation
[Music]
i have a confession to make
the organizer of this ted event asked me
to come up here and shed some light
on what to expect from the coming
millennium but the truth is
i failed the truth is i failed before i
even begun
they probably thought that if they bring
a phd in physics who is also a tech
entrepreneur he should know something
but the opposite is true and i’m not
talking about what to expect from the
year
2563 no i’m talking about what to expect
from the lives of our own generation and
that of our kids
now to explain why i failed i’d like to
take you on a journey
to the far history of mankind
imagine yourself in a cave in a big
dark cave and as you stand there in the
cave glazing through the darkness
all of a sudden you see someone right in
front of you this someone
is a caveman the next thing you’re going
to do is take your phone and show it to
him
because you want to show him what
marvelous things this amazing device can
do
how do you think he would react the
caveman
i’ll tell you he would not find it
marvelous
in fact i believe he’s going to feel
something far stronger
he’s going to feel his legs trembling
his heart beating faster and adrenaline
pumping rapidly through his veins
because this caveman is now scared
of your phone he’s terrified now why is
that
it is surely not because his brain is
not developed enough
no it’s not it’s because what you just
showed him your phone
is nothing but nothing like anything he
ever saw
and more importantly it’s nothing he
could even
imagine or predict now i want you to
record i was asked to come up here on
this stage
and shed some light on what to expect
from the coming millennium
right but the truth is i don’t believe i
can i don’t believe
anyone can because these days we’re
developing a technology
that is likely to change the face of
humankind
in an unforeseeable way that’s right
we’re developing a technology called
quantum computing
which could change the world so much
that asking me
or anyone else to predict the future is
meant to fail
just like the caveman could have not
predicted
the reality that we live in today that
are phones aircrafts the internet
computers no matter how visionary he was
he’s a caveman right
now just to make it crystal clear
between us right
in this analogy you guys each and every
one of you are the caveman
and so am i now you may be telling
yourself oh well he’s talking about some
evolution
that will take some 50 000 years not not
my concern
but it is your concern because i’m not
talking about an evolution i’m talking
about a revolution
and this revolution is either going to
happen in your lifetime
or in your children’s now i know
i’ve made some very bold statements and
it’s only been a few minutes into this
ted talk
but if you bear with me i will explain
to you exactly
why i am so confident saying those
things
and i do believe you should know you
ought to know
now to explain let’s get back to your
phone your phone has a huge memory
made out of about 10 billion transistors
now raise your hand if you ever got a
new phone thinking ah
this time the memory is more than enough
for me and just a few months later
started find yourself scrolling up and
down looking for pictures and apps you
can get rid of
because there is no more memory right
and believe it or not
your phone today has more than a million
times the transistors we had on the
apollo 11
when it was sent to the moon about 50
years ago
yes computers have evolved incredibly
in the last few decades being the by far
leading factor
for technological progress of mankind
we’ve come a long way but the question
is
can we get more can we get much more
and the answer is yes we can with
quantum computers
here’s an example let’s say i had today
a quantum computer with just
300 transistors i’m sure you’ll all
agree with me the 300
is far far less than the 10 billion you
have on your phone
right now right the question is
could i be storing a decent amount of
pictures on that phone
on that quantum computer the answer is
yes
here’s a surprise for you i could store
on that phone
on that quantum computer more pictures
than you can store on your phone today
even if your phone had not 10 billion
transistors but
hear me well more transistors than the
number of atoms in the universe
i repeat a quantum computer with just
300 transistors
could store more data than a normal
computer
even if it had more transistors than the
number
of atoms in the universe
now this is of course immense
and you’re right to think that there
must be something fundamentally
different about it
that makes it so potentially powerful
and i want to explain that to you
because i think you should understand it
i want to explain the difference between
quantum computers and cloud and normal
computers
through a very simple analogy the
analogy to the difference between
multiplication of numbers and addition
of numbers this is primary school
material
too easy for you how many of you ever
wanted to pick up a six pack of mineral
water
i’m sure most of you and i’m sure you
succeeded with great teas how many of
you ever wanted to
say pick up a sofa and move it from one
room to the next
right i’m sure many of you as well and
i’m sure you succeeded
but not without a friend’s help because
for that you need two people
how many of you ever had your car broken
down and had to
move it around in that case i’m pretty
sure you did not move it around
manually by hand because you would need
some 45
strong men to lift up the car okay i’m
not talking about lifting
up it up slightly above the floor i’m
talking about lifting it up
moving around okay now the thing is the
thing is
the average man can strong it can can
lift up about 40 kilograms
okay so if i need to lift up something
and i need help
then for every man joining me i add
this is addition of numbers i add 40
kilograms so someone joins
plus 40 someone joins plus 40 plus 40
and so on and so forth
but now let’s imagine something
different let’s imagine
that for every man joining me i don’t
add 40 but
i double my lifting capacity
let’s think about it it’s a good it’s an
interesting example
let’s think about the scenario for the
six-pack of mineral water
it’s the same it’s easy you just pick it
up no problem
for the sofa you pick it up as well with
one
with one additional person two people
pick it up no problem
what about the car here’s a surprise
in this scenario in order to lift up the
car you would need only six people
six people lift up the car and as the
seventh man joins you
you can now lift up two cars because it
doubled six people
one car seven people two cars it doubles
and with 83 people only
you would be able to lift up the entire
listen carefully earth the entire earth
putting gravity aside for a moment
okay now this is an interesting example
i want you to think about it
because i did not describe to you a
scenario in which
it would be easier to lift up the earth
you would need last people
no i described a scenario in which you
would take the
impossible task of lifting up the earth
and make it possible
it’s a big difference now the bad news
for you guys
is that most things you use on a daily
basis work like the addition of numbers
your phone for example works that way
too okay if you have a phone with 10
billion transistors and now you want to
store
twice the pictures you need 20 billion
transistors
okay so why don’t you get another phone
you have two phones right but it’s not
it’s not so cool what if
we could build computers that
with every transistor added
the capacity doubled like the
multiplication example
we just had we can quantum computers
in quantum computers with every
transistor added
the capacity doubles therefore growing
the power at an incredible pace
this is why for example with a
full-scale quantum computer
i could crack pretty much any encryption
protocol
on the internet bank computers
government computers your phone your
facebook account
within minutes this is well established
this is something that would take the
biggest computer we now have on earth
hundreds of thousands of years and this
is another good example
because this is taking something that
would take hundreds of thousands of
years
running in minutes impossible to
possible
and you may be asking yourself what is
what’s the magic
why does it work that way but if you
think about it for a moment
even the computers we have today seem
like magic right they seem weird i mean
just the thought of a wireless keyboard
sending letters through the
air to a computer that then displays
them on a screen
right it’s magic it’s weird but as weird
as it is
it can be explained by the simplest laws
of nature
as we know them since the 19th century
such as electricity and magnetism
but quantum computers are fundamentally
different they are based on different
laws of nature the laws of quantum
mechanics and if you thought sending
letters through the air is weird then
guys you should hold on tight
because in in the quantum world which is
our world by the way
everything you know breaks in the
quantum world for example things can be
in multiple places
at the same time an object
far apart galaxies away can affect one
another
instantaneously sounds like science
fiction
well i surely agree but since i’m a geek
i’ve been dedicating my my entire
adulthood until this very day
to making this a reality and i’m not
alone
governments funds and corporates all
over the world
are investing billions of dollars to the
race
to being among the first ones to put
their hands
on this incredible technology now
don’t get me wrong building quantum
computers is
not going to be a walk in the park in
fact
it’s probably one of the biggest
challenges that
our biggest brains are working on these
days
moreover there are even open questions
and serious doubts
even by experts will it take three years
or
30 but rest assured
we’re on it quantum computers are coming
and there is no way back
now with this confidence that i’m
displaying here
how come i said in the beginning that i
failed in the test given to me by the
organizers
to shed some light on what to expect
from the coming millennium right
because i could be standing up here on
this stage and saying that
for example quantum computers could
allow us to develop
vaccines and drugs for pandemics in
matter of days
many believe so that they could allow us
to develop
um new cheap sources of energy to fuel
the entire planet
many believe so that quantum computers
could allow us to develop
artificial intelligence that would place
our own perception of what human is
to question but i’m not doing that
because
if i did so it means i did not
comprehend
the potential power of these machines
because
you see the potential of these machines
is unpredictable just like the caveman
could have
not foreseen the future that we live in
that of computers phones aircrafts in
the internet we cannot
predict the future of quantum you see
because all of these examples that i
just gave you
if you close your eyes for just a moment
you could imagine
you could predict but the future of
quantum is not a predictable one
now as we progress towards an
unpredictable future
i believe that our duty above all is to
reflect
how do we prepare
how do we prepare and with this talk
i’d like to encourage you to think to
think deeply about that
because as we go towards an expedition
to an unknown land
we do not equip ourselves with specific
tools but rather we work on our mindset
we prepare to be flexible to think out
of the box
now i’m not sure about you guys as for
me i’m going to be spending my days
teaching that my own kids i hope you too
thank you
you